This saga started way back in March 2013 when Sir Alex Ferguson left Rooney out the starting line up for what was United’s biggest game of the season, the second leg Champions League tie against Real Madrid. By starting with Danny Welbeck, who was given the job of closing down Xabi Alonso (a role he did wonderfully until Nani was dismissed) Ferguson told the world that he didn’t trust Rooney for such an important game. Rooney, for all his bluster and effort, is not one to follow the manager’s brief. United fans will cheer when Rooney chases back to close down an attack, but that isn’t what he is in the team for. His card was well and truly marked.

Ferguson then played Rooney in an unfamiliar midfield role, in which he did a superb job, especially in the Aston Villa game, where his range of passing was displayed with spectacular results for Robin Van Persie. Rooney rightfully earned plaudits for his performance in that game, a game which United sealed the EPL title. Perhaps Ferguson was giving Rooney a chance to become the next Paul Scholes, and why not? His tackling is better than Scholes’s, his passing almost as good, he rarely gives the ball away and his first touch arguably better. Then there is his eye for goals, a perfect midfielder? Rooney could be the new Scholes, the problem is he doesn’t want to be.

Rooney is a player who craves to be ‘the big man’. He has to be the number one, and since the summer arrival of Robin Van Persie, Rooney has not been number one. He coped with playing second fiddle to Ronaldo for a couple of seasons because he knew Ronaldo was eventually headed for Real Madrid, but RVP is going nowhere, and Rooney doesn’t like it.

It is this ‘big man’ syndrome that means Rooney won’t like a shuffle back into midfield, which is ridiculous. Think of the best players over the last 20 years and many if not most have been midfielders. Zidane, Figo, Scholes, Kaka, Keane, Lampard, Gerrard, Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas this list goes on. These players are heroes and Rooney could be among them.

The saga continued when Ferguson dropped Rooney entirely from his final few game squads, telling the world’s press that Rooney had submitted a transfer request. Rooney subsequently denied this, and in the last few weeks new United boss David Moyes has stated that he wasn’t party to the conversations, but that Rooney was training well and super fit. All seemed settled.

Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho, when asked by a journo stated that he can’t talk about a player at another club, but then proceeds to do just that saying “I like the player very much”. However, even at this point, all is calm, and even I assumed Rooney was staying at Old Trafford. Mourinho was however, doing his best to unsettle Rooney, it seems David Moyes is on Mourinho’s radar for mind games already. Will Moyes prove to be a soft target. No chance.

In early July the saga erupts again, with Rooney travelling home from United’s far east tour with a ‘sore hamstring’, as we all know the best thing to do when suffering with a hamstring pull is to get on a plane and fly 15 hours half way round the world, and David Moyes tells the press that Rooney is important for United should they get an injury to Van Persie, as he wants options. Was this a huge error on behalf of Moyes? Did he accidentally alienate a player he has known since he was 15 years old, was it a slip of the tongue? No.

David Moyes is a very careful and considerate speaker in front of the press. He is renowned for asking journos to rephrase questions, so he can be ultra clear in their intent. He is famed for always giving answers that cannot be interpreted any other way, there is no way he made a mistake. What he said about Rooney was calculated and deliberate, but why?

I have a strong feeling that Sir Alex Ferguson is still very much pulling the strings here, and between him, Moyes and United CEO Ed Woodward, are engineering a position where Rooney is forced to hand in a transfer request. They want rid of Rooney. It is simple, but in doing so they want to ensure that he is seen publically to be engineering a move himself. The reasons why will probably never be known, why not just negotiate a deal with Chelsea behind closed doors and sell the player?

It could stem back to 2010 when Rooney embarrassed United and Ferguson by publically demanding a transfer to neighbours Manchester City, at the time United had no plan B so talked Rooney round with increased wages believed to be £250,000 per week ($400,000) and the talk of bringing in world class talent. Ironically the arrival of two of those players has pushed Rooney down the pecking order. Van Persie has eclipsed Rooney as the first name on the team sheet, and proved his point by winning the EPL Golden Boot in his first season. In terms of goal scoring ability, RVP is a far better player than Rooney. However, it is also the arrival of Shinji Kagawa that has further threatened Rooney’s place. If Rooney isn’t playing up front, he’d play in the hole between midfield and attack. Kagawa is clearly United’s future in this position. Rooney is pushed further afield, literally.

It could stem from Rooney’s advisors approaching Chelsea, and prompting Mourinho’s “I like the player” quote. It could stem from United’s belief that Rooney is simply not the player he once was, and they don’t rate him as a player anymore.

Whichever the case, it is clear that United, despite public statement to the contrary, want rid of Rooney, Chelsea want to buy Rooney and Rooney wants to play at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea have made one bid for Rooney, which United leaked was £10m ($18m) plus United’s choice of Juan Mata or David Luiz. This was rejected by United…well first bids always are. Chelsea denied any player swap was involved and this was United’s way of bettering Chelsea. You want to unsettle one of our players? We’ll raise you, and unsettle two of yours. Jose Mourinho-1 David Moyes-2.

If Chelsea had offered £10m plus Juan Mata, you’d have to assume United would have ripped their hand off.

Mourinho just last night stated that Rooney was his one remaining transfer target, and he had no second option. Chelsea will go all out to sign Rooney, and United appear to hold all the cards. They are happy to let Rooney see out the two years on his contract, have no desire to be openly seen to be selling England’s best striker to an EPL rival, and already have a superb strike force with RVP, Hernandez and Welbeck (maybe not Welbeck), plus have Kagawa to support. Chelsea on the other hand have the misfiring Torres, Ba and erm, that’s it.

Where will this end? Rooney will be at Chelsea come the start of the season and Chelsea will have paid a probable near British record fee to get him. Maybe not quite the utterly ludicrous £50m they paid Liverpool for Fernando Torres, but the deal be it cash only or cash plus Mata, Luiz, Hazard, Cech, Oscar and Denis Wise will be reported as being worth a lot of money.

Rooney can currently be backed at odds of $15.00 to finish as EPL top scorer with Sportsbet. This is a superb price. Don’t think of the price being Wayne Rooney at United, playing second fiddle to the virtuoso RVP, think of Rooney up front for Chelsea being fed by Hazard, Oscar and Mata (provided United don’t sign them all), he will score a hatful. 2014 is World Cup year, Rooney will want to ensure he is England’s ‘big man’.

Keep abreast (terrific word that) of all the latest transfer news, who has moved where and for how much with our excellent Transfer Watch feature.

Tottenham are currently priced at odds of $18.00 to finish in the bottom 10 for EPL 2013 / 2014, so if you think Bale will be sold, get on this price before it tumbles. Rarely can a top 6 team have been so reliant on one player.

Chelsea and Manchester United appear to be fighting it out as to who gets to spend $100m on Edinson Cavani and who gets to spend $60m on Robert Lewandowski. United who have been liked with Robert Lewandowski since about 1996 it seems, are still favourites to land the big Pole, however Cavani’s Wayne Rooney like work ethic could be attracting David Moyes. Cavani also brings a lot more hair to United’s front line than either Lewandowski or Rooney. Our tips are: Cavani to Real Madrid and Lewandowski to Manchester United.

If you fancy a United / Chelsea Dual Forecast for 1st and 2nd in EPL 2013 / 2014 (we do) you can grab odds of $3.60 which we recommend you do before their cheque books open and their prices start falling.

One player almost certain to be at Manchester United next season is Everton’s Leighton Baines, with United having a $24m feeler bid rejected, it is only going to be one transfer request and $30m to seal the deal. Baines brings some dead ball expertise United have missed since Ronaldo and an offensive full back approach they haven’t had since, well erm, Evra.

And finally a no-more-than-10-words-per-sentence round up of the rest of the gossip.

Rooney will remain at Old Trafford, central to Moyes’ plans
Real Madrid to sell Higuain to either Arsenal or Juventus
Everton fancy a new Honda, Keisuke from CSKA Moscow.
Paulinho is on his way to Tottenham from Corinthians
Liverpool’s Reina is going to move to Barcelona

Chelsea are rumoured to be in negotiations with Galatasaray to reunite Wesley Sneijder with his former boss Jose Mourinho. This would represent a great signing for Chelsea and give them a natural goal scoring replacement for the aging Frank Lampard. I think this rumour has real legs, no offence to Galatasaray, but Sneijder is still one of the best midfielders in the world and should be playing in the EPL.

Chelsea are attractively priced at odds of $3.20 to win the EPL, and given the Mourinho effect and the likelihood of them signing a raft of new players in the summer, this is a cracking bet.

Arsene Wenger has admitted it would be ‘impossible’ to turn down the chance to sign Wayne Rooney, however we are confident he won’t get the chance. Whilst Manchester United won’t consider Arsenal genuine title rivals anymore, they won’t be keen to sell to another EPL club. Plus Rooney won’t be overly interested in playing for a team that still have to qualify for the Champions League we don’t reckon. Chances of this one happening? None. However….

Arsenal are heavily linked with a ove for Swansea City’s mercurial attacking midfielder / striker Michu and this rumour makes much more sense all round. I think this one has legs.

Arsenal are currently listed as $1.90 to finish outside the EPL Top 4 next season. I think that is a rather decent bet.

And finally, Liverpool seem to be keen on Shakhtar Donetsk’s Armenia international striker Henrikh Mkhitaryan and are apparently not put off by the likey $50m valuation of him. Of who? Exactly. To be fair to Henrikh Mkhitaryan he has scored a record 25 goals in the Ukranian league this term. I hope this one comes to fruition, just to hear the various ways the pundits will try and pronounce his name.

To lift the trophy Chelsea are $1.64 with Benfica $2.17. I feel the better value is on the handicap betting, with Chelsea -1 available at $5.00.

Chelsea’s recent form is strong, winning 6 of their last 8 games and with 2 draws, scoring at least 2 goals in every game bar the 1-0 victory against Manchester United. They have also got very recent European Final experience with last year’s Champions League victory.

Benfica on the other hand have a relatively weak streak, with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 8 games, including losing their last game, against PC Porto. They do often score though, so I think a cheeky correct score bet on Chelsea winning 3-1 at $19.00 is in order.

In my opinion an Over 2.5 goals at $2.00 is an almost certainty.

Other interesting Europa League 2013 Final bets are:

Chelsea to win both halves: $8.00
Lampard to score in 90 minutes and Chelsea to win the match: $5.50
Chelsea to score before and including 28th minute: $3.78

I don’t see much hope for Benfica, however given their likelihood to score, a bet on Benfica to Score Exactly 1 Goal is available at $2.50.

Saturday’s Railway Stakes was a different matter – even though it was the first main group 1 event since Cup week, the usual bookmakers didn’t open their betting on it until around Wednesday. Even Betfair and IASbet, who seem among the earliest with most races, didn’t get going on it properly until the middle of last week.

Strange then, that the Winterbottom Stakes, due to appear next Saturday, is already on the go over the web, and in some cases was up and running before bets were being processed on the Railway.

When I had a good root around on Saturday, before the Railway, you could get 4.20 for Warathas Secret at the top of the Winterbottom market at IASbet – while a number of runners who were due to feature in the Railway were in there at tempting prices.

All American, second favourite for the Railway most of the week, was on 31.00 for the Winterbottom, for example.

A point worth bearing in mind, and there will of course be more on the three-year-olds and up race at Ascot throughout the week.

Elsewhere, back with the soccer, all of the major European leagues have now passed the ten games played stage – always a good benchmark to decide who really is in and who is definitely out, when it comes to title races.

In the English Premier League betting markets, Chelsea, the current league leaders, are still the favourites, while Liverpool’s challenge is already all but dead and buried after a poor start.

Holders Manchester United have faltered of late while Arsenal have been growing slowly and steadily. Although there’s little to choose between them and United, points-wise anyway, Arsenal at the moment look like a side capable of powering through later in the season and providing some value – Betfair have them at 5.00 now and this could be the best value for a side which is not Chelsea- the Blues are far too low in many markets given how early in the season it still is.