The Offer’s withdrawal will be a great frustration to Waterhouse, who had all her hopes of a repeat Melbourne Cup success resting on him – he was to be her only runner in the 2014 race, and she will find herself as a spectator come November 4th this year. In truth, though, the 2014 Melbourne Spring hadn’t been shaping up to be a vintage year for The Offer, who hadn’t been able to recapture the form that saw him take the Sydney Cup in such style back in April. A run that didn’t suit in the Underwood Stakes and a poor barrier draw coupled with fitness issues at the Caulfield Cup had left punters wondering about The Offer anyway, and the news that Waterhouse would be withdrawing him from The Race That Stops A Nation perhaps won’t have affected too many punters’ plans – certainly, he wasn’t amongst the shortest odds in the Racing odds for the Melbourne Cup this year, and neither was he a horse seeing much serious backing.

But the race, you can’t help but feel, will be just that little bit poorer for the absence of The Offer on the track, and especially of Gai Waterhouse in the stands. She will likely still be there to watch, but she misses the chance to be the first trainer in more than a decade to win back-to-back Melbourne Cups with different horses, and after her incredible success with Fiorente in becoming the first female trainer to claim the biggest trophy in Racing, we would have liked to see her get a chance to defend it…

But a certain Gai Waterhouse is on record this week saying that she thinks there’s an underrated contender in the 2014 Caulfield Guineas – her own runner Almalad. In fact, she thinks he should be the favourite by rights: ‘he reminds me of Juggler, another horse that never got the credit he deserved and he had four Group 1 wins. Almalad is already a Group 1 winner and he is in the Cox Plate for a reason – because I think he will win it. I don’t think the mile is his best trip. He is just an outstanding horse and when I look at him that is what I see. He is going to prove it (in the next couple of weeks). If he is the winner of the Guineas then people might wake up to just how good he is. If you look at Almalad’s form, he has won twice at mile and the horse [Brazen Beau] he beat in Brisbane came out and won easily on the weekend. The other horse [Looks Like The Cat] that ran the third has been going well too. He is just getting better and better and you will see that on Saturday.’

Is that the sort of tip that you can afford to ignore? There are plenty of punters who aren’t convinced by Waterhouse, but is it maybe worth having another glance at the Racing odds for the Caulfield Guineas by clicking that link there? If Waterhouse turns out to be right about Almalad, it could be there’s some money to be won backing him at odds of $7.00…

So, can Waterhouse claim a second Melbourne Cup win? She will certainly be doing her best to make sure The Offer is in peak condition – she sound pretty keen to repeat the experience of a win in the Melbourne Cup after her taste of victory last year: ‘I can’t describe how exciting it was, probably the most exciting thing that has happened to me since marrying Rob. The whole of Australia was swinging on the favourite Fiorente winning and I wanted him so much to do it for the owners, for my own sake, for my stables’ sake. It was exceptionally exciting.’ And whilst there are doubters aplenty of The Offer’s credentials, Waterhouse seems more convinced: ‘it’s early days; two months before the Melbourne Cup but he’s going very well, I’m delighted with the way he’s training. It’s got a bit of a task in front of him, he’s not as well performed as Fiorente, but he’s certainly got a fantastic will to win like Fiorente.’

So which way are you leaning? Can Gai Waterhouse win the biggest prize in the staying calendar again in 2014, or is it just too much of a reach for The Offer, especially with the strong field of international stayers heading to Australia to challenge him? He’s the favourite at the moment, but the Racing odds have got time to change…

But don’t tell that to Gai Waterhouse – we don’t think she’s going to agree with the punters out there who have The Offer pegged as a false early favourite. He has had an overwhelming number of backers early on, it has to be said, and there’s a theory that the punters are backing Waterhouse to win it again, rather than looking at the realistic chances her stayer will have in the race. One thing is for sure, though, and that’s that Waterhouse doesn’t agree: ‘after you win the Cup, you want to win it again, and it’s such an amazing, euphoric experience. I love training stayers, and I made the executive decision five or six years ago I wouldn’t be left out of the big races down there. I’m delighted with The Offer, he has a very fluent action, and he handled Moonee Valley this morning. He put his ears back like Fiorente and really attacked the line. Saturday (and the mile) might be too sharp for him, but he’ll still be very competitive.’

So we guess it comes down to whose judgement you’re going to weigh most heavily when you’re sizing up The Offer and his chances for the Melbourne Cup. Whichever way you look at it, though, The Offer is going to be right amongst the Racing odds…

But there’s something of a feeling around that The Offer might not be quite the heir apparent to Fiorente that many – Waterhouse possibly included – are hoping he will be. He will have to overcome some considerable competition to win the 2014 Melbourne Cup, much of it from classy overseas raiders who have set their sights on the big race. According to Racing Victoria’s Chief Handicapper Greg Carpenter: ‘you could either say he was super dominant (in Sydney) or you could say he was beating fairly ordinary horses by big margins on wet tracks. I guess we’re about to find out. Gai won it last year with Fiorente and I guess there’s that sense that maybe now she’s done it once she can do it again. But Fiorente was seen as a horse of enormous ability in Europe, whereas The Offer didn’t quite have the same credentials.’

So are the punters looking at Gai Waterhouse and picking a winner, or at The Offer? Obviously, things in the Racing odds have plenty of time to change between now and November 4th, so we’d suggest you keep an eye out for the possibility of The Offer losing his favourite’s tag as we get closer to the race…

And trainer Gai Waterhouse is very pleased with the way that Almalad is shaping up as he prepares for the Melbourne Spring: ‘Almalad is just thriving. He’s one of the most exciting horses and he will go down as one of the best horses I’ve trained. He’s a beautiful horse, he’s a gelding, he doesn’t have the heaviness of a colt so he’s very light on his feet and he’s got an amazing will to win.’

And Waterhouse isn’t the only one who’s impressed with Almalad, and predicting big things for him in this year’s Melbourne Spring – jockey Tommy Berry has ridden Almalad on a few occasions, and sounds keen for more: ‘he gives me a great feel in his work, he’s honest and he does everything right. He’s only had the few starts, but he’s already won a Group 1. He has come back in great order and he’s definitely a horse whose name will be on everyone’s lips.’

With that sort of tip – and Waterhouse predicting big things – you’d expect lots of punters to be looking out for Almalad this Melbourne Spring season. Fortunately, you don’t have to go far to do just that: follow the link and we’ve got all sorts of Racing odds for you!

The Cox Plate is one of those few races in the Australian calendar that Gai Waterhouse hasn’t had a winner in – could there be a space left empty in the trophy cabinet? Either way, Almalad has shown plenty of promise, and will be very much in punters’ thoughts as we get closer to October and the Cox Plate. In the meantime, Almalad could well be putting in an appearance at both the Golden Rose Stakes and the Caulfield Guineas (and you can see odds for both those races by clicking the links). In Waterhouse’s own words: ‘I will set him for the Cox Plate. I think that any of those horses that raced through those Group races in the winter are certainly horses that could contest the top races in Sydney and Melbourne. Three-year-olds have an outstanding record in the Cox Plate, absolutely outstanding.’

And Almalad has a great run behind him in recent months – a brave win in the JJ Atkins in June after he was thrown in at the deep end for his first Group 1 race. That will have pleased Waterhouse no end, and it sounds like he has been in good shape since that win: ‘he has come back into work. He had a little let-up after that as all my Queensland horses did and he came back and he is really bouncing around Randwick. He is as fresh as a daisy and he is really going well.’ It’s been our habit to listen when Gai Waterhouse makes these predictions for her horses – could Almalad be her first Cox Plate winner? Check back for all the Racing odds and the news as we get it!

William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.

Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.

Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.

Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.

Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.

A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.

I’m guessing that the last thing going through the mind of jockey Kerrin McEvoy as he stares at the Caulfield track between Denman’s ears is what the Pom de Turf is going to write on Monday morning if the pair of them have an off day.

For what it’s worth, I won’t be happy though. Form, tipping chatter and the bookies are all pointing towards the Peter Snowden-trained star and finding value might be your only problem today.

The last time I checked Betfair were among the few bookies prepared to offer you a little over the 2.70 to 2.80 mark for Denman. If your bowels are telling you not to follow the crowd then my personal recommendation would be Manhattan Rain, who has been knocking around a very tempting 6.50 to 7.00 all week and who is due a performance which truly fulfils his considerable potential.

By all accounts he has also looked truly sharp this week, with Gai Waterhouse declaring “it will be a great race on Saturday with the best colts in Australia coming together but I really believe I have the horse to win my first Caulfield Guineas”, so he’s your horse if you fancy living a little more dangerously, but I’m sticking my neck out with Denman.

Elsewhere today there’s plenty of adequate distraction from the Guineas in the shape of the Toorak Handicap and the Yalumba Stakes, among others. The latter could see a very tight contest between Heart Of Dreams and Whobegotyou, and simply because he did me earlier in the season I’m going with Whobegotyou. I feel like he owes me one.

Other than that my advice is simply this; relax and enjoy the thunder of hooves which means the best of the season’s group 1 racing has begun.

Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.

”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.

Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.

IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.

The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.

The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.