Here are our 5 Top Picks for NFL Week 9

Friday 1st November 2013

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

The Bengals (6-2) are installed as favourites against the struggling Dolphins (3-4). The Dolphins 3-4 standings don’t tell the while story as they have lost their last 4 games, including two very narrow losses at home against the Ravens (-3) and the Bills (-2). Conversely the Bengals have been in good form and have won their last two road trips again, narrowly by 3 points.

The Bengals boast the leagues 9th best offense, allied to the 8th best defense, Miami on the other hand have 28th best offense and 21st best defense.

Our tip is therefore to back the Bengals outright at odds of $1.63.

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins

The bookmakers predict this will be a close game, and have made San Diego (4-3) marginal road favourites against the Redskins (2-5). We think the game will be an easier win for the Chargers than the bookies predict for several reasons. San Diego have serious playoff aspirations, are freshly rested and have won their previous two games which started at 5am Australian time. San Diego have a very string offense, ranked 4th but a weak defense ranked 23rd. The Redskins have a surprisingly strong offense (7th) and a bobbins defense (29th).

Our tip is to back San Diego -1.0 at odds of $1.92.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

We are tipping two results in this one, so certain are we of our picks!

The Steelers (2-5) looks likely to struggle against the Patriots (6-2) in what some pundits are dubbing the battle of the Running Backs. With New England have a very successful defense against throwing games, and Pittsburgh having an average passing game at best, this game will be run (and lost) on the ground.

Steelers rank 23rd offensively but have a defense ranked 4th in the league. New England have a modest 18th ranked offense and 19th ranked defense. However momentum and home field advantage is firmly with the Patriots who have won all 4 of their home games this season, whereas the Steelers have only won once on the road. This is going to be a tight game.

Back New England Patriots – 6.0 at odds of $1.92.

Back Under 43.5 at odds of $1.92.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

The bookies have listed the Ravens (3-4) as road favourites as they make the trip to Cleveland (3-5), however with the Ravens recording 3 losses in their last 4 games, and struggling offensively (20th) and defensively (16th), we rather fancy the Browns to make the most of home field advantage and win. The Browns have an excellent defense (27th ranked) but a poor offense (24th).

We are tipping Browns +2.5 at odds of $1.92.

Our full guide to NFL Week 9 odds lists all matches, head to head, line and Over/Under bets.

This week will be a different story, and we’ve put a whole army of experts on it, and this is what they have come up with!

Here are our 5 Top Picks, now Sportsbet have added odds for Giants at Eagles.

Friday 25th October

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Panthers (3-3) are clear betting favourites over the hapless Buccaneers (0-6), but we are focusing our tip for this one on the Over / Under market. The defensive rankings for each team are surprisingly high, the Panthers boast the 3rd best defense in the league, whilst the Buccaneers despite being 0-6 actually have the 13th best defense.

Looking at the total points scored in each team’s games so far, the bookies will think this game will be a low scoring affair. The Panthers 6 games so far have generated an average of 37 total points, and the Bucks games have generated an average of 36.5 total points. However, basing your bet on the whole season to date is wrong, and you can gain an advantage on the bookies, thus: In weeks 6 and 7 both teams have taken part in games that generated substantially more points than the listed Over/Under market (39.5). Panthers games have generated 45 and 45 and Tampa’s games have generated 51 and 54.

What will probably happen is the Panthers will be cruising through the game, get into an unassailable lead and then ease off, allowing the Buccaneers to score a TD or two, thus ramping up the points.

Therefore our tip is Over 39.5 points at odds of $1.92.

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (at Wembley Stadium, London, UK)

The 49ers (5-2) are obvious ultra short money favourites against the leagues worst team with the Jaguars on 0-7 with the worst offense and 28th ranked defense. The 49ers have a reasonable mid ranked offense (17th) and a solid defense (8th). For this reason the bookies have marked the Over/Under market at 40.0 points.

Given that the game is a showcase at Wembley and both teams will be out to get new fans, plus the fact that both teams have been involved in games that average significantly more than 40.0 points this season (49ers – 44 average total points, Jaguars – 43 average total points), plus they have a 50 and 42 average for the last two games. So…

Our tip is Over 40.0 points at odds of $1.92.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia (3-4) are rightly favourites against NYG (1-6) in this battle of the North East losing teams. We’ve analysed the heck out of the trends and again, we are going to tip on the Over/Under market. The Giants, for a team with a 1-6 record have a surprisingly well rated Offense (22nd) and Defense (19th), this matches up against the Eagles with the leagues 3rd bet Offense and the leagues worst defense. This equals lots of points and indeed looking at the average game points between the teams s far this season, we can see that the Giants games average 43 points, and the Eagles average 54. When the teams met in New York just a few weeks ago, the Eagles won 36 to 21, and with the better team having home advantage, we expect a more open game and more points to be scored.

Our tip is Over 51.5 points at odds of $1.92.

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos

The Broncos (6-1) should return to winning ways against the Redskins (2-4), however like our previous two tips we are focusing on the Over/Under market. The bookies have set the bar at 57.5 points, which looks like a lot, but it isn’t, we think it is too low. Two really good offensive units meet two distinctly average defences. The game totals so far this season show that Washington games average 56 points and Broncos games average a massive 71 points. In fact the Broncos have not been involved in a single game this season which has totalled less points than the Over/Under bar set here.

Our tip is Over 57.5 points at odds of $1.92.

Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams

The Seahawks (6-1) are massive favourites against the Rams (3-4) and that’s good for the Handicap Line betting opportunities. Purely looking at results so far this season we can see that the following trends apply.

When Seattle win, half the time they win by more than 10.5 points. Having won by 26, 28 and 12 as their biggest margins this season.

When the Rams lose they usually get pummelled. Having lost by 11, 36, 24 and 15 as their 4 losses this season.

So naturally we are going to tip Seahawks -10.5 at odds of $1.92.

Our full guide to NFL Week 8 odds lists all matches, head to head, line and Over/Under bets.

Here are our Top 5 picks for NFL Week 7

Here are 3 of our Top Picks, we are waiting for Sportsbet to add the odds for a few missing games before we complete our picks.

Monday 21st Oct 2013

St Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers

We like the look of the Panthers (2-3) at their home stadium against the Rams (3-3). Panthers have a good defense, ranked 3rd this season, whereas the Ram’s offence is ranked a lowly 30th. Panthers offense ranks 21st against the 22nd ranked defense of the Rams, so it looks to me like Panthers have the clear edge and should win by more than a TD.

The Rams won the most recent encounter between the teams winning 20-10 back in 2010, the Panthers won the previous 2 games.

We are tipping Panthers -5.0 at odds of $1.92.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

This game intrigues us, the Patriots (5-1) are clear favourites over the Jets (3-3), despite the Jets having home field advantage, but we don’t think the game is a clear cut as that. The Patriots have the season’s 14th best defense and 15th best offense so are hardly setting the NFL alight, whereas the Jets have the season’s 4th best defense, with an offense ranked 20th. We can see New England finding it very tough to score against the Jets.

Recent game history sees the Patriots winning the last 3 encounters, but 2 were very close affairs (13-10 in 2013, 49-19 and 29-26 in 2012).

Our tip is therefore New York Jets +4.5 at odds of $1.92.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers

We don’t disagree with the Packers (3-2) being favourites in this game, however we do think the Line is too big and favours the Browns (3-3). Green Bay have the season’s 2nd best offense coupled with an average defense (18th). Cleveland have a good defense (7th) and a slightly below average offense (24th), so the game should come down to how effective the Packers QB can pressurise the Brown’s defensive line up.

Recent games between the two see the Browns winning the last 3 encounters, so they’ll get a warm fuzzy feeling from that.

Our tip is Browns + 10.5 at odds of $1.89, as surely 10.5 points in such a game is far too big a handicap line?

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins

We aren’t sure how the Redskins (1-4) are $1.75 favourites over the Bears (4-2) but that’s what tips are for to highlight the clear advantages to the punter. Chicago with the league’s 11th best offense and 20th best defense, match up to Washington’s 4th best offense and 28th best defense. But that 4th ranked offense is a massive red herring. A herring so big, if it were ever sighted in the ocean, Google Maps would record it as a new continental land mass. Whilst the Redskins might move the ball well, they score very few points, so we are with the Bears for this game, in a big way.

In the last 3 games between these two teams, the Bears have won the most recent in August 2012 (33-31) and the Redskins won the previous two (17-14 in 2010 and 24-16 in 2007).

Our tip is Bears at odds of $2.14, there is little point reducing your odds to $1.92 to take Bears +1.5 as we think the Bears will win comfortably anyway.

Our final tip for this week is:

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams are 3-3 for the season, but the Eagles have a much stronger offensive ranking, with the league’s 3rd bet offense, defensively though they are all over the place with a poor 32nd ranked defense. The Cowboys have almost nothing to shout about with the 13th ranked offense and 30th ranked defense.

The last 3 games shows Dallas winning two (38-33 and 38-23 both in 2012) and Philly winning in 2011 (20-07).

Our tip is Eagles – 3 at odds of $2.01. They should win by more than 3 points so are worth backing on the Line, not outright for the odds boost.

Our full guide to NFL Week 7 odds lists all matches, head to head, line and Over/Under bets.

Last week’s Top Tips came in like this:

Friday 11th Oct 2013

New York Giants at Chicago Bears

We love this match and the Bears go into it as very strong favourites at odds of $1.20. The Giants (0-5) will really struggle to handle the Bears offense (3-2) so our tip is to back Bears -7.5 at odds of $1.92.

Monday 14th Oct 2013

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

The Bengals (3-2) are heavily favoured to win at the Ralph Wilson Stadium and are as short as $1.29 to win outright. However the Bills (2-3) gain 7.0 points on the handicap line and we think that will be enough for of a head start for them to win on the Line. Back Buffalo +7.0 at odds of $1.92.

Oakland Raiders at Kansa City Chiefs

The Raiders (2-3) don’t stand much of a hope against the Chiefs (5-0), and you can get odds of $4.70 if you fancy a major upset. We like the look of a Chiefs -8.5 bet at odds of $1.92.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers (3-2) are huge favourites for this game at straight odds of $1.15, however we think the Cardinals (3-2) can get a lot closer than the bookies have priced them to. In a game where the Over/Under is set to just 41.0 we find it hard to believe that a team will win by more than a TD. Therefore back Cardinals +11.0 at odds of $1.92.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

After a 99 point game against the Broncos, the Cowboys (2-3) will be looking for a home field win to bring their season back to 50 pct. The Redskins (1-3) look to be out classed in this match up, but with the Cowboys having a superb offense and leaky defense, we think the tip here is to back Over 53.0 at odds of $1.92.

Our full guide to NFL Week 6 odds lists all matches, head to head, line and Over/Under bets.

Friday 13th Sept 2013 10:25

New York Jets at New England Patriots

We have two recommended bets in this one. Back the Jets +13.0 on the Handicap at odds of $1.88 as we think this game will be a close, but high scoring affair, which is why we are also recommending backing the Over 44.0 market at odds of $1.96.

Monday 16th Sept 2013 03:00

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills

The Panthers should win this one easily and are certainly more than a field goal favourite in our opinion, so backing Panthers -3.0 at odds of $1.99 is the right play in our book.

St Louis Rams and Atlanta Falcons

Whilst the Falcons lost in week 1 and the Rams won, these teams look mismatched with the Falcons having a much better offense than the Ram’s defense. Therefore we are tipping Falcons -7.0 at good Line odds of $2.02.

Monday 16th Sept 2013 06:05

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccanners

Tampa’s week 1 loss to the awful New York Jets outlines what a poor side the Bucks really are and we expect them to get destroyed in this game by a Saints team fresh from a week 1 victory over the Falcons. Take Saints -3.5 at odds of $2.05.

Our full guide to NFL Week 2 odds lists all matches, head to head, line and Over/Under bets.