Gareth Bale – Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid for a rumoured $200m. This is basically a done deal, for all of Tottenham’s posturing, this deal was done months ago, as Tottenham have proved by spending the best part of $970b in the transfer market on all manner of players. Likelihood Rating: 99% (saving the 1% for Gareth Bale – Tottenham to Manchester United)

Cristiano Ronaldo – Real Madrid to Manchester United estimated at $160m. Whilst logically Real Madrid could fund much of the fee for 24 year old Bale by selling 29 year old Ronaldo to United, it seems the age of galacticos is coming back at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium, and Ronaldo will be at Madrid for at least another year. Likelihood Rating: 33%

Cesc Fabgregas – Barcelona to Manchester United for c. $80m. I can’t see this happening this month, however if Fabregas is still a bench bunny in January, he may well move. Likelihood Rating: 25%

Wayne Rooney – Manchester United to Chelsea for rumoured $70m. Rooney is going nowhere, United won’t be selling one of their top players to one of their biggest rivals. With Rooney putting in a superb performance when United played Chelsea, he’s laid down a marker that says “I’m staying here” Likelihood Rating: 25% (33% if United sign Ronaldo)

Baines & Fellaini – Everton to Manchester United for combined $80m. Baillaini as I’ve just christened them, are definitely going to be plying their trade at Old Trafford by the end of the window. They might not be the super heroes that many United fans will desire, but their Premiership pedigree is not in doubt. Likelihood Rating: 100%

Ozil and / or Benzema and / or Di Maria – Real Madrid to Arsenal for frankly anyone’s guess. Arsenal have done so little business in this years transfer window, they are delighted to announce the free re-signing of AC Milan’s Mathieu Flamini, so they are being linked to many players. Of these, Di Maria is the most likely to be the deal done, at a rating of 50%

And a summary of the rest of the big ones….

Luis Suarez – Liverpool to Arsenal (0%) or Real Madrid (33%).
Kaka – Real Madrid to Arsenal (25%), Manchester United (0%), Liverpool (50%)
Fernando Torres – Chelsea to Atletico Madrid (50%)
Demba Ba – Chelsea to Newcastle (75%)
Javier Hernandez – Manchester United to Tottenham (10%)
Iker Casillas – Real Madrid to PSG (10%)
Eliaquim Mangala – Porto to Manchester United (50% but hope it does as UK soccer fans will have loads of fun with his firstname!)

This saga started way back in March 2013 when Sir Alex Ferguson left Rooney out the starting line up for what was United’s biggest game of the season, the second leg Champions League tie against Real Madrid. By starting with Danny Welbeck, who was given the job of closing down Xabi Alonso (a role he did wonderfully until Nani was dismissed) Ferguson told the world that he didn’t trust Rooney for such an important game. Rooney, for all his bluster and effort, is not one to follow the manager’s brief. United fans will cheer when Rooney chases back to close down an attack, but that isn’t what he is in the team for. His card was well and truly marked.

Ferguson then played Rooney in an unfamiliar midfield role, in which he did a superb job, especially in the Aston Villa game, where his range of passing was displayed with spectacular results for Robin Van Persie. Rooney rightfully earned plaudits for his performance in that game, a game which United sealed the EPL title. Perhaps Ferguson was giving Rooney a chance to become the next Paul Scholes, and why not? His tackling is better than Scholes’s, his passing almost as good, he rarely gives the ball away and his first touch arguably better. Then there is his eye for goals, a perfect midfielder? Rooney could be the new Scholes, the problem is he doesn’t want to be.

Rooney is a player who craves to be ‘the big man’. He has to be the number one, and since the summer arrival of Robin Van Persie, Rooney has not been number one. He coped with playing second fiddle to Ronaldo for a couple of seasons because he knew Ronaldo was eventually headed for Real Madrid, but RVP is going nowhere, and Rooney doesn’t like it.

It is this ‘big man’ syndrome that means Rooney won’t like a shuffle back into midfield, which is ridiculous. Think of the best players over the last 20 years and many if not most have been midfielders. Zidane, Figo, Scholes, Kaka, Keane, Lampard, Gerrard, Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas this list goes on. These players are heroes and Rooney could be among them.

The saga continued when Ferguson dropped Rooney entirely from his final few game squads, telling the world’s press that Rooney had submitted a transfer request. Rooney subsequently denied this, and in the last few weeks new United boss David Moyes has stated that he wasn’t party to the conversations, but that Rooney was training well and super fit. All seemed settled.

Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho, when asked by a journo stated that he can’t talk about a player at another club, but then proceeds to do just that saying “I like the player very much”. However, even at this point, all is calm, and even I assumed Rooney was staying at Old Trafford. Mourinho was however, doing his best to unsettle Rooney, it seems David Moyes is on Mourinho’s radar for mind games already. Will Moyes prove to be a soft target. No chance.

In early July the saga erupts again, with Rooney travelling home from United’s far east tour with a ‘sore hamstring’, as we all know the best thing to do when suffering with a hamstring pull is to get on a plane and fly 15 hours half way round the world, and David Moyes tells the press that Rooney is important for United should they get an injury to Van Persie, as he wants options. Was this a huge error on behalf of Moyes? Did he accidentally alienate a player he has known since he was 15 years old, was it a slip of the tongue? No.

David Moyes is a very careful and considerate speaker in front of the press. He is renowned for asking journos to rephrase questions, so he can be ultra clear in their intent. He is famed for always giving answers that cannot be interpreted any other way, there is no way he made a mistake. What he said about Rooney was calculated and deliberate, but why?

I have a strong feeling that Sir Alex Ferguson is still very much pulling the strings here, and between him, Moyes and United CEO Ed Woodward, are engineering a position where Rooney is forced to hand in a transfer request. They want rid of Rooney. It is simple, but in doing so they want to ensure that he is seen publically to be engineering a move himself. The reasons why will probably never be known, why not just negotiate a deal with Chelsea behind closed doors and sell the player?

It could stem back to 2010 when Rooney embarrassed United and Ferguson by publically demanding a transfer to neighbours Manchester City, at the time United had no plan B so talked Rooney round with increased wages believed to be £250,000 per week ($400,000) and the talk of bringing in world class talent. Ironically the arrival of two of those players has pushed Rooney down the pecking order. Van Persie has eclipsed Rooney as the first name on the team sheet, and proved his point by winning the EPL Golden Boot in his first season. In terms of goal scoring ability, RVP is a far better player than Rooney. However, it is also the arrival of Shinji Kagawa that has further threatened Rooney’s place. If Rooney isn’t playing up front, he’d play in the hole between midfield and attack. Kagawa is clearly United’s future in this position. Rooney is pushed further afield, literally.

It could stem from Rooney’s advisors approaching Chelsea, and prompting Mourinho’s “I like the player” quote. It could stem from United’s belief that Rooney is simply not the player he once was, and they don’t rate him as a player anymore.

Whichever the case, it is clear that United, despite public statement to the contrary, want rid of Rooney, Chelsea want to buy Rooney and Rooney wants to play at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea have made one bid for Rooney, which United leaked was £10m ($18m) plus United’s choice of Juan Mata or David Luiz. This was rejected by United…well first bids always are. Chelsea denied any player swap was involved and this was United’s way of bettering Chelsea. You want to unsettle one of our players? We’ll raise you, and unsettle two of yours. Jose Mourinho-1 David Moyes-2.

If Chelsea had offered £10m plus Juan Mata, you’d have to assume United would have ripped their hand off.

Mourinho just last night stated that Rooney was his one remaining transfer target, and he had no second option. Chelsea will go all out to sign Rooney, and United appear to hold all the cards. They are happy to let Rooney see out the two years on his contract, have no desire to be openly seen to be selling England’s best striker to an EPL rival, and already have a superb strike force with RVP, Hernandez and Welbeck (maybe not Welbeck), plus have Kagawa to support. Chelsea on the other hand have the misfiring Torres, Ba and erm, that’s it.

Where will this end? Rooney will be at Chelsea come the start of the season and Chelsea will have paid a probable near British record fee to get him. Maybe not quite the utterly ludicrous £50m they paid Liverpool for Fernando Torres, but the deal be it cash only or cash plus Mata, Luiz, Hazard, Cech, Oscar and Denis Wise will be reported as being worth a lot of money.

Rooney can currently be backed at odds of $15.00 to finish as EPL top scorer with Sportsbet. This is a superb price. Don’t think of the price being Wayne Rooney at United, playing second fiddle to the virtuoso RVP, think of Rooney up front for Chelsea being fed by Hazard, Oscar and Mata (provided United don’t sign them all), he will score a hatful. 2014 is World Cup year, Rooney will want to ensure he is England’s ‘big man’.

Keep abreast (terrific word that) of all the latest transfer news, who has moved where and for how much with our excellent Transfer Watch feature.

Rooney can be backed at odds of $15.00 to finish as EPL top scorer, this is great value.

As previously reported, long time Chelsea target Edinson Cavani has decided he prefers the fluttering eyelids of Laurent Blanc to the romantic gestures of Jose Mourinho and has opted for a move to Even-Richer-Than-Chelsea-Paris-St-Germain (ERTCPSG). The fact that PSG have seemingly met Napoli’s $180m buy out clause might be another reason to move the Paris than London. So Chelsea have switch attention to 22 year old Christian Benteke for Aston Villa. Benteke joined Villa from Genk for $14m on a 4 year deal only last season, and finished with an impressive 19 EPL goals. It is understood the giant Belgian has handed in a transfer request and Chelsea is his most likely destination for c. $45m. A snip.

Chelsea are currently joint second favourites to win the 2013 EPL outright at odds of $3.10

Or / and Chelsea are lining up an $80m bid for Liverpool’s bite happy want away forward Luis Suarez. Suarez who believes the UK press is hounding him plans to solve the problem by moving from Liverpool to Madrid or Paris or seemingly London where it believed he has briefed his agent that a move to Chelsea would suffice. Yes that’s right Luis, you won’t get any press coverage in London, at a club that has had more than it’s fair share of racism and player behaviour problems. Suarez will at least feel at home playing alongside John Terry, John Terry, Eden Hazard and John Terry.

Quick round up of the rest of the gossip, along with our forecast as to whether it is likely to happen or not.

Manchester United will return with a slightly larger bid and secure the signature of Everton’s Leighton Baines, yawn. This is going to happen, fact.

Patrice Evra will get all shirty and leave United as a result of his place being put under threat, with Real Madrid, ERTCPSG or Monaco his destination. This will happen, he is a moody little fella and will probably end up back at money bags Monaco.

Real Madrid chief quote issuer Florentino Perez has stated that Cristiano Ronaldo will retire at Real Madrid, either Ronaldo needs to look out for flying tackles in training, or Perez believes the sunshine/world’s biggest club/$500,000 per week/working with Zidane formula is right for CR7. He is going nowhere, this season at least.

Barcelona have been told to do one by Barcelona fan Jose Mourinho when they came asking if David Luiz fancied playing out. Of all the clubs in all the world, the least likely Chelsea are to sell to is Barcelona. Conclusion: David Luiz is staying put.

The superbly named Julian (not that bit) Draxler (that bit) lately seen bossing the Schalke midfield is coming to the EPL with Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal (last resort on his behalf surely) fighting it out for his signature. Our verdict is a move is on the cards, and Draxler will be pulling on a blue shirt next season. Whether it is sky or darkish, we don’t know.

Little known, bit part Spurs player Gareth Bale is not going to Real Madrid. At least that is according to the aforementioned Madrid boss Florentino Perez who claims they have no interest in signing a really good player from a team they have a good relationship with. Hold on. Spurs and Real Madrid have a good relationship do they? Ok. Modric. I think Spurs chairman Daniel Levy has cocked this up. For all his blustering about not selling Bale at any price, and world record fees of $190m being bandied about, he has just talked himself and his club out of a monster pay day. Never mind that Bale is Spurs and they are a truly one man team. $190m buys you a good 4 or 5 players you need to play alongside new signing Paulinho to make the team very good indeed. Verdict. Bale to move to Manchester City or PSG on the last day of the transfer window for $100m as Spurs get desperate for the green backs.

And finally…the biggest news of the week is surely Usain Bolt to play for Manchester United. Bolt is tipped to turn out for his beloved reds in Rio Ferdinand’s testimonial against Sevilla on August 9th. That should be quite some wing speed. Hopefully he will be able to control the ball better than United’s last ‘super-fast-next-big-thing-flying-winger’ David Bellion…..

Chelsea are rumoured to be in negotiations with Galatasaray to reunite Wesley Sneijder with his former boss Jose Mourinho. This would represent a great signing for Chelsea and give them a natural goal scoring replacement for the aging Frank Lampard. I think this rumour has real legs, no offence to Galatasaray, but Sneijder is still one of the best midfielders in the world and should be playing in the EPL.

Chelsea are attractively priced at odds of $3.20 to win the EPL, and given the Mourinho effect and the likelihood of them signing a raft of new players in the summer, this is a cracking bet.

Arsene Wenger has admitted it would be ‘impossible’ to turn down the chance to sign Wayne Rooney, however we are confident he won’t get the chance. Whilst Manchester United won’t consider Arsenal genuine title rivals anymore, they won’t be keen to sell to another EPL club. Plus Rooney won’t be overly interested in playing for a team that still have to qualify for the Champions League we don’t reckon. Chances of this one happening? None. However….

Arsenal are heavily linked with a ove for Swansea City’s mercurial attacking midfielder / striker Michu and this rumour makes much more sense all round. I think this one has legs.

Arsenal are currently listed as $1.90 to finish outside the EPL Top 4 next season. I think that is a rather decent bet.

And finally, Liverpool seem to be keen on Shakhtar Donetsk’s Armenia international striker Henrikh Mkhitaryan and are apparently not put off by the likey $50m valuation of him. Of who? Exactly. To be fair to Henrikh Mkhitaryan he has scored a record 25 goals in the Ukranian league this term. I hope this one comes to fruition, just to hear the various ways the pundits will try and pronounce his name.