AFL Finals Week 1 - odds and betting tips

It's down to the business end of the 2010 AFL season as we move into Finals Week 1 with 4 great betting games to look forward to. We've got the early insights into the best bets available for online sports bettors...

If you're having a bet this weekend on the big games why not bet with the bookies' money? Sportsbet are offering all new customers a free $80 bet on any AFL game this weekend. Check out all the details on the Sportsbet website.

Geelong v St Kilda odds and betting tips.
MCG. Friday, 7:45pm
Geelong coach Mark Thompson has already spoken out in an attempt to keep this game about footy and not fighting, urging umpires to act hard and fast to avoid another ugly clash between Steve Baker and Steve Johnson. But this game is too important for players to think about oneupmanship, it should be intense, high quality, and much closer than the bookmakers think.

We've been keen on the Saints chances from day 1 this year, and they've hung in there despite some mid-season lapses. The St Kilda outfit beat Geelong last time out by 4 goals, and were without star man Nick Reiwoldt. Sportsbet are offering St Kilda at $3.10 to win at the MCG which is tempting. But for added insurance, we're going for the Saints PLUS 18.5 points start on the handicap spread, which is way too much given how tight this game will be.

Betting tip; Back St Kilda Saints +18.5 points at a huge price of $1.92


Fremantle v Hawthorn odds and betting tips.
Subiaco. Saturday, 3:20pm
After beating the Pies last week Hawthorn will be in super confident mood for the trip to the west coast. But that in itself might be their undoing, after having put in a couple of shocking performances against Sydney and Port Adelaide in recent weeks, you could not back Hawthorn with any degree of confidence. And the long trip west won't help.

Let's not get too carried away with the Dockers either, as there is a huge gulf in class between the top 3 AFL teams and the rest. But they are at home against a side who can be very inconsistent, so they should be much shorter than the $2.15 odds on offer with Sportsbet. The bookies might have this one the wrong way round, take advantage....

Betting tip: Back Fremantle to make home advantage count as tasty odds of $2.15


Collingwood v Western Bulldogs odds and betting tips.
MCG. Saturday, 7:20pm
We've been shocked throughout the season at how much bookmakers have overestimated the Western Bulldogs who, amazingly, were as low as $5.00 for the Flag just 4 weeks ago. There is a class diffference between the top 3 and the rest, and this is now finally reflected in the 2010 AFL Grand Final odds and betting where the Bulldogs sit as a realistic $13.00.

In the first 2 games previews we've gone against the bookies and picked the outsiders to spring a shock, but not here. Despit their defeat last week (which may have given the Pies a healthy reality check), Collingwood will be way too strong at the MCG.

Betting tip: Back Collingwood to trounce the Bulldogs at a $1.92 MINUS 25.5 points on the handicap spread with Sportsbet.


Sydney v Carlton odds and betting tips.
ANZ Stadium. Sunday, 2:40pm
The Blues have not won in Sydney since 1993 and have only a single victory in 14 matches with the Swans. And memories of last season's 4th quarter disaster against the Brisbane Lions still linger. And the Blues have lost there last 2 games on the spin... all in all, it's not looking good for Carlton on Sunday.

I've been trying to come up with a balanced argument as to why Carlton can overcome all of the above, but I cannot find one. I priced this up with the home team at much shorter odds than the $1.45 offered by Sportsbet.

Betting tip: Back Sydney to maintain their strong superiority over Carlton and take the $1.45 for a home win.


AFL Finals week 1 tips summary:
St Kilda PLUS 18.5 points handicap start at odds of $1.92
Fremantle to win at $2.15
Collingwood MINUS 25.5 points handicap spread at $1.92
Sydney to win at $1.45


Keep checking the AFL Finals live odds for all the latest information.