NFL 2013 / 2014 Week 8 Picks
October 24th, 2013 by HS Jackson JnrIt is fair to say we had a pants week last week, only bringing in 2 tips from 5. The winners were Panthers -4.0 and Jets +4.5, the losers were Browns +10.5, Bears, and Eagles -3.0.
This week will be a different story, and we’ve put a whole army of experts on it, and this is what they have come up with!
Here are our 5 Top Picks, now Sportsbet have added odds for Giants at Eagles.
Friday 25th October
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers (3-3) are clear betting favourites over the hapless Buccaneers (0-6), but we are focusing our tip for this one on the Over / Under market. The defensive rankings for each team are surprisingly high, the Panthers boast the 3rd best defense in the league, whilst the Buccaneers despite being 0-6 actually have the 13th best defense.
Looking at the total points scored in each team’s games so far, the bookies will think this game will be a low scoring affair. The Panthers 6 games so far have generated an average of 37 total points, and the Bucks games have generated an average of 36.5 total points. However, basing your bet on the whole season to date is wrong, and you can gain an advantage on the bookies, thus: In weeks 6 and 7 both teams have taken part in games that generated substantially more points than the listed Over/Under market (39.5). Panthers games have generated 45 and 45 and Tampa’s games have generated 51 and 54.
What will probably happen is the Panthers will be cruising through the game, get into an unassailable lead and then ease off, allowing the Buccaneers to score a TD or two, thus ramping up the points.
Therefore our tip is Over 39.5 points at odds of $1.92.
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (at Wembley Stadium, London, UK)
The 49ers (5-2) are obvious ultra short money favourites against the leagues worst team with the Jaguars on 0-7 with the worst offense and 28th ranked defense. The 49ers have a reasonable mid ranked offense (17th) and a solid defense (8th). For this reason the bookies have marked the Over/Under market at 40.0 points.
Given that the game is a showcase at Wembley and both teams will be out to get new fans, plus the fact that both teams have been involved in games that average significantly more than 40.0 points this season (49ers – 44 average total points, Jaguars – 43 average total points), plus they have a 50 and 42 average for the last two games. So…
Our tip is Over 40.0 points at odds of $1.92.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia (3-4) are rightly favourites against NYG (1-6) in this battle of the North East losing teams. We’ve analysed the heck out of the trends and again, we are going to tip on the Over/Under market. The Giants, for a team with a 1-6 record have a surprisingly well rated Offense (22nd) and Defense (19th), this matches up against the Eagles with the leagues 3rd bet Offense and the leagues worst defense. This equals lots of points and indeed looking at the average game points between the teams s far this season, we can see that the Giants games average 43 points, and the Eagles average 54. When the teams met in New York just a few weeks ago, the Eagles won 36 to 21, and with the better team having home advantage, we expect a more open game and more points to be scored.
Our tip is Over 51.5 points at odds of $1.92.
Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos
The Broncos (6-1) should return to winning ways against the Redskins (2-4), however like our previous two tips we are focusing on the Over/Under market. The bookies have set the bar at 57.5 points, which looks like a lot, but it isn’t, we think it is too low. Two really good offensive units meet two distinctly average defences. The game totals so far this season show that Washington games average 56 points and Broncos games average a massive 71 points. In fact the Broncos have not been involved in a single game this season which has totalled less points than the Over/Under bar set here.
Our tip is Over 57.5 points at odds of $1.92.
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams
The Seahawks (6-1) are massive favourites against the Rams (3-4) and that’s good for the Handicap Line betting opportunities. Purely looking at results so far this season we can see that the following trends apply.
When Seattle win, half the time they win by more than 10.5 points. Having won by 26, 28 and 12 as their biggest margins this season.
When the Rams lose they usually get pummelled. Having lost by 11, 36, 24 and 15 as their 4 losses this season.
So naturally we are going to tip Seahawks -10.5 at odds of $1.92.
Our full guide to NFL Week 8 odds lists all matches, head to head, line and Over/Under bets.
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