Archive for August, 2009
Bombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose
August 29th, 2009 by adminBombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose
There’s nothing like the first group 1 horse racing betting of the season to test your mettle and the market for the Golden Rose at Rosehill is already boiling and getting hotter. This means I finally have to commit to some tipping or I’ll probably turn red and sweaty like a lobster.
To recap, much noise was made earlier in the week for youngster Trusting after he won the Warwick Stakes, and he stands at 5.80 with Betfair. However, as of Friday the same bookmaker was offering a reasonable-looking 6.40 for Phelan Ready who has shortened to 5.50 with some other bookies.
Denman remains the firm favourite at 2.64 with Betfair and is backed up by a barrier four draw. Denman won the Run to the Rose and it would be a significant surprise if he didn’t at least make the top two. A reasonable wedge might well be worthwhile on him, but go for Phelan Ready on those Betfair odds if you are after something sexier.
The real cash is likely to come from the placings, and there are some decent-looking shots hovering around the 20.00 – plus odds for the win.
This translates to 8.81 for a placings punt on Bombay Sling with IASbet, who is out at 31.00 for the win with the same bookmaker. Other placings bets don’t look nearly as worthwhile.
Got it? Good. On to the Memsie group 2 over at Caulfield now and the feel of the betting almost reflects the fact attention is not so much on the winner but on the field, as many a recent Cox Plate winner has run in the Memsie. Mic Mac is way out in front at 2.60 with IASbet and has all sorts going for him – especially the barrier four draw. El Segundo is second favourite on 4.80 but Whobegotyou looks better at 5.00. If you are feeling all brave and bolshy and the approaching smell of spring has you all confident, I like the look of Sea Battle at 15.00 with IASbet. Don’t look at me if this one falls on its face though because Mic Mac is well and truly the Mr Safe for this.
The Pom De Turf will be back on Tuesday – I’ll need Monday to recover from the commiserations or celebrations. Meanwhile enjoy the return of group 1. It promises to be a sizzling spring.
Read more »Cricket? Scotland? Never. Warner to knock up 100.
August 28th, 2009 by adminCricket? Scotland? Never. Warner to knock up 100.
For me, the concept of Scotland even thinking about playing international cricket is a slightly perverse one, despite their regular presence at the T20 World Cup. I can’t help it. It’s just so British and silly.
Apparently the bookmakers agree with me. Betfair are offering an almost laughably paltry 1.05 for Australia to win the one day international in Edinburgh on Friday, while the home side are at 12.00.
Nonetheless the local press are taking the whole thing seriously, with the Scotsman saying on Thursday that Aussie all-rounder James Hopes is warning Scotland he and the squad are ‘desperate to make a statement’ after the Test side lost the Ashes.
The paper then helpfully points out Hopes had never been to the UK prior to the World Twenty20 attempt in June – so presumably he has never been to Scotland before and is enjoying the Edinburgh sunshine safe in the knowledge there’s almost no danger of the home side repeating England’s performance.
Hopes is presumably also basking in the novelty of a country where it rains even more regularly than England.
Although Friday’s result is all but academic it will be interesting to see how Australia warm up before taking on England in the Twenty20 on Sunday.
Of particular interest is David Warner, an opener who got 89 from 43 balls on debut against South Africa earlier this year- and who could be a good bet to blast straight to a hundred on Friday.
Elsewhere, back with horse racing betting, and the new whip rules issue is already clutching at the edges of Saturday’s Golden Rose. However you feel about this one welfare-wise you could be shuffling in your seat if you’ve got money on Porsched, currently 34.00 with IASbet.
Jockey Peter Robl has had to get nice with the stewards after comments were attributed to him in a newspaper claiming he would hit the horse more than the rules allowed – if it was the difference between winning and losing.
He has said he was misquoted, but as a result plenty of eyes will be on his whip on Saturday. Could this affect him, perhaps even subconsciously? I’ll let you be the judge of that one.
Read more »Memsie promises to give season clues
August 27th, 2009 by adminAttention will rightly be focused on the Golden Rose on Saturday but the hardcore punters among us, including the Pom de Turf, will also have keen eyes on the Memsie stakes over at Caulfield on Saturday.
The attraction lies in the fact horses who have run in the Memsie have often gone on to win the Cox Plate – although it’s not necessarily the winner who goes on to victory in the big one at Moonee Valley later in the season.
Some basics for the Memsie morons out there – it’s a group 2 weight-for-age race over 1400m and there are usually plenty of glamorous names preparing not just for the Plate but also for the Melbourne Cup – who are often not yet as fit as less well-known runners who tend to do quite well.
El Segundo is running on Saturday having already won it once in 2006 and is apparently not showing his age going into a shot at a second.
After the 2006 victory he went on to win the Underwood Stakes and got himself placings in the Caulfield Stakes and Cox Plate later in the same campaign.
So besides him, who else could be worth a look on Saturday? Sea Battle is being ridden Craig Williams, who piloted Miss Finland to victory in this one in 2007, but Sea Battle hasn’t raced since November.
Whobegotyou could be a better shout – he’s the early Cox Plate favourite and did well when resuming to seal second in the recent Liston Stakes – which is probably a better indicator than the glittering historical form but less inspiring early season patter of other familiar names lining up on Saturday. More on this one later in the week.
Back to the Golden Rose build up-now and Denman currently remains the firm favourite at 2.75 with Centrebet. My interest is, however, drifting towards Bombay Sling, at 21.00 with Centrebet, and Porsched, who is currently looking a decent placings bet at 7.50. Interestingly, Centrebet also has outsider Magic Model at 81.00 down from 101.00 earlier in the week, so worth keeping an eye on going into Thursday/Friday.
Read more »Sainthood threatens to send me to punting hell
August 26th, 2009 by adminSainthood threatens to send me to punting hell
As it happens Tuesday’s racing at Randwick on the Kensington track was the day of truth for Glowlamp after all.
She grew to 2.25 from around 1.85 to ditch her unlucky tag in fine style in the 1100m Intergaze Maiden Plate.
On the same card I made a noise on Monday for Sainthood in the 1550m. This was not so holy and finished a disappointing third with outsider Kossack coming home and wrecking all chances of canonisation in my eyes.
So far my success rate is two in four solid tips – so some of you are already hoping I burn in hell.
That’s just how it goes – and there’s a shot at redemption this coming weekend.
On Saturday we have a mouth-watering 1400m Golden Rose appearing at Rosehill and the build-up has already started in earnest. The race has been building a reputation as a premium race for three-year-olds.
Trusting is the early hype-magnet for the $1 million event after the colt picked up a surprise win in the Warwick Stakes on Saturday and is already at third favourite for Saturday with Centrebet on 5.00.
Denman is the current favourite thanks to a favourable gate four and is at 2.80 with the same bookmaker.
Phelan Ready has also been attracting early attention and is currently at 6.00 with Centrebet but is a more appealing 7.50 with IASbet.
The Mikado is at 26.00 with IASbet today having firmed up to around 17.00 with some other online horse racing betting markets so now could be a good time to get something on this one if you are in the mood for a long shot.
Look carefully and hovering down the list at number 12 is Headway, standing at 11.00 with Centrebet but at 9.00 with IASbet. Headway has three wins in the last six, plus two placings, so is an interesting prospect considering Phelan Ready has two wins and two placings in the last six.
My ear is to the ground and I’m holding off on a call for the winner at the moment. Denman’s gate draw means the odds are mighty short and an each way could be your best chance of picking up a wedge. I shall sit on my rock and go ‘ommmmm’ quietly until later in the week. Buddhism is now more my thing after the embarrassing failure of Sainthood on Tuesday. Have faith turf lovers.
Read more »Failure for the Aussies – but success for our cricket betting tip
August 25th, 2009 by adminFailure for the Aussies – but success for our cricket betting tip
It’s Monday and the dust has settled – both on the Oval cricket pitch and at Randwick and Moonee Valley, with the former racecourse being a bit of a punter’s graveyard over the weekend.
I hold my hands up to the Voice Commander shout in the 1400m Warwick Stakes – he was nowhere to be seen and my dollars are similarly conspicuous by their absence after Trusting came in, having stood at around 9.00 with many bookies.
Moonee Valley thankfully took the edge off this as Secret Flyer got us the win in the BC3 Future Stars – anyone who paid attention and slapped a wedge on this one at 2.70 with Centrebet on Friday will be breathing a very happy sigh of relief.
The ‘Pom’ part of ‘Pom de Turf’ is especially smug about the Ashes for more reasons than should be mentioned here. I won’t bore you with the sledging but will instead point to the floppy blonde head of English pace bowler Stuart Broad – not to laugh, but to hail his five wicket haul which would have netted you some cash if you took Friday’s advice of a punt on a bowler to take five wickets in an innings with Betfair at 2.02.
You all fancied Ben Hilfenhaus for this on Saturday didn’t you? Well you won cash anyway so don’t look quite so down. Remember what happened the last time England went to Australia to defend the urn and you should cheer up smartly.
We have midweek racing at Randwick on the Kensington track on Tuesday and the 1100m Intergaze Maiden Plate is a potential nightmare – there are a number of decent horses dropping down to midweek and although there’s plenty of interest on Glowlamp at 1.85 with Centrebet I’ve got a bad feeling about this one with decent shouts Purdey and Schlager hovering ominously behind.
Instead the Chris Munce – ridden Sainthood is looking reasonable in the 1550m handicap on the same card – Betfair will give you 3.00 for this.
Elsewhere we can expect a massive week in both AFL and NRL betting – watch this space for tips as the battle for the top eight heats up.
Read more »Greetings from the Pom de Turf
August 21st, 2009 by adminGreetings from the Pom de Turf
Please don’t be perturbed by the nature of my terribly-punned title. I may be a Pom, but I love my Aussie turf. I am however, definitely not French in any way whatsoever- but I felt suitably chuffed with the world play, and besides, time was getting on.
Spring is upon us and the online horse racing bookmakers are looking all plump and ready for a roasting from the punters. Early season enthusiasm, that’s the spirit. These boys are waiting to handover cash whatever your nationality. There is no prejudice here, only the sound of electronic dollars winging their way over the wires.
The smell of freshly-gouged turf is also in the air, and will be joined by the smell of fresh English tears mixing with warm beer if the start of the fifth Ashes Test is anything to go by. But more on the cricket in a moment or two.
Firstly to some tipping for the track and a look at what has been bubbling under the surface over the last day or two.
We have action at Canberra, Horsham, Townsville and Taree on Friday but most eyes will be on Saturday and especially the 1400m Warwick Stakes at Randwick. Dreamscape was the early clear favourite at 3.50 with Centrebet.com but I’m tempted by Voice Commander, who is in good shape according to trainer Nick Olive. With the more famous gallopers only really warming up in this one I fancy him for a win at 3.30.
Elsewhere, at Moonee Valley, there’s the BC3 100m Future Stars sprint. Secret Flyer is at 2.70 for this one with Centrebet, which doesn’t look terribly sexy, but he’s gunning to return to group 1 racing this season and has had his most trouble-free preparation yet, according those in the know. Therefore I would stick a reasonable wedge on this one.
So, to the cricket. Do we have to? It makes me ill. Alistair Cook has just been caught at slip after waving a girly-looking hello at a Peter Siddle delivery. Anyway, early online cricket betting odds are tight on who will win this one, if I had to call it, I’d go for the draw early on, but avoid if possible.
Methinks something more creative could be a better shot. Now then, Ben Hilfenhaus has bowled well for Australia all series and could be on the verge of a stellar performance, while Mitchell Johnson has returned to fine form. Add to this the fact Andrew Flintoff is playing his final Test for England and we have 2.02 for a bowler to take five wickets in an innings with Betfair. Worth a Cook-style tickle I’d say.
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