Posts Tagged ‘Australian Horse Racing’

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Two runners stand out in Winterbottom betting

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

So The Winterbottom Stakes are nearly here, and the occasion is trying its best to be anything but a one (or two) horse race.

The race is a huge $500,000 affair, not bad for a 1200m run. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but pundits are swearing blind there are two runners in the big one that could well be strolling past the line with ease.

The jockey from Melbourne, Nash Rawiller, is going to be on Lucky Secret. And the good news for him is that he has been riding the same horse for his last three wins. However, there is another secret at The Winterbottom, namely Waratah’s Secret, another great little runner, to be run by Paul Harvey, who is no slouch by any means.

Waratah’s secret is a three year old, and one that has been totally spruced up energy wise by the trainer, one David Harrison. Harrison must be aiming high. It’s all gearing up to be a great race, but what about the results? What’s the score on this?

As regards Waratah’s Secret, IASBet has the young horse on at 4.40, which is hardly something to ignore. So everyone likes the Secrets, but some bookies are tipping it the other way, so we’ll give you more bang for your buck here, and name a couple of good options for you to consider come race day.

Apache Cat has been getting some favourable press recently. While Neil Evans from Centrebet names Danny Beau as a possible player. He’s on at 8.0.

You got all of that? I know, none the wiser. But give it a go. Maybe a few safe bets will involve the spilling of some Secrets…

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Who will pinch the Winterbottom?

Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

It’s interesting seeing which races are available when in the online betting markets – for example, the Melbourne Cup was up and running wager-wise months before the actual event took place, much as you would expect.

Saturday’s Railway Stakes was a different matter – even though it was the first main group 1 event since Cup week, the usual bookmakers didn’t open their betting on it until around Wednesday. Even Betfair and IASbet, who seem among the earliest with most races, didn’t get going on it properly until the middle of last week.

Strange then, that the Winterbottom Stakes, due to appear next Saturday, is already on the go over the web, and in some cases was up and running before bets were being processed on the Railway.

When I had a good root around on Saturday, before the Railway, you could get 4.20 for Warathas Secret at the top of the Winterbottom market at IASbet – while a number of runners who were due to feature in the Railway were in there at tempting prices.

All American, second favourite for the Railway most of the week, was on 31.00 for the Winterbottom, for example.

A point worth bearing in mind, and there will of course be more on the three-year-olds and up race at Ascot throughout the week.

Elsewhere, back with the soccer, all of the major European leagues have now passed the ten games played stage – always a good benchmark to decide who really is in and who is definitely out, when it comes to title races.

In the English Premier League betting markets, Chelsea, the current league leaders, are still the favourites, while Liverpool’s challenge is already all but dead and buried after a poor start.

Holders Manchester United have faltered of late while Arsenal have been growing slowly and steadily. Although there’s little to choose between them and United, points-wise anyway, Arsenal at the moment look like a side capable of powering through later in the season and providing some value – Betfair have them at 5.00 now and this could be the best value for a side which is not Chelsea- the Blues are far too low in many markets given how early in the season it still is.

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Odds for Railway Stakes raiders could be deceptive

Friday, November 20th, 2009

Welcome to Friday. Hello, fans of the Irish soccer team. Remember what I was saying earlier in the week about so much being at stake? Painfully demonstrated by Thierry Henry’s handball – but at least if you slapped some cash on under 1.5 goals going in during normal time you had something to take the edge off. For the record, if FIFA and France agree to replay the game, I’ll eat my South Africa 2010 wall chart.

Back to the racing, and much of the attention has been on the Railway Stakes at Ascot. The track press have had little else of this level to talk about since Melbourne Cup day, so it’s not surprising I’ve now got Saturday’s $1 million race flashing before my eyes in a thousand hypey headlines.

The line-up is a mixture of Perth local runners and eastern chances, some of whom will be lining up on Saturday chiefly because they were out of luck in Sydney and Melbourne over the spring.

Among them is the week-long favourite Gold Salute, on 3.20 with IASbet, having firmed from 4.00. This isn’t great value, with plenty of runners hovering highly ominously around the 9.00 to 14.00 mark. It’s worth remembering that while in the past many horses have headed west for this race with big billings and small odds, many of them have failed.

Besides this, any one of All American, Ortensia and Grand Nirvana are in with a very strong shout indeed, and if Sniper’s Bullet can negotiate the barrier 14 draw, he’ll be a dangerous one too.

All this doesn’t help I know, but there is value for Largo Lad, at 19.00, dropping from 26.00 with IASbet, and good at the mile. Megatic at 17.00 with the same bookmaker looks reasonable.

It’s a tricky one this, but if you cast your eyes to race 2 on the card for Ascot on Saturday you will find the Carlton Mid Handicap – Thorn Dancer is well fancied here and is a paltry 1.80 with IASbet – if you can find better than that this could be a good safety net.

Back on Sunday, turf’s up folks.

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World Cup play-off betting and Railway Stakes update

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

A good overview of how you might play the World cup play-off betting tonight before I do a little update on the Railway Stakes, the main racing event for Saturday at Ascot.

By 11am AEDT we will know for sure which teams will be joining the likes of Australia and New Zealand in South Africa next year and which sides face another four-year wait before they have the chance to perform on soccer’s biggest stage.

Today’s World Cup play-off second legs will define the careers of some players – Portugal have been to the World Cup on numerous occasions, but have never won it. Go out against Bosnia tonight and playmaker Deco, at 32 years of age, can probably kiss goodbye any chance of winning the most famous prize in sport.

Elvir Rahimic, the Bosnian midfielder, is 33 and his team have never made the World Cup before – if his side fail to get the required result he too faces the prospect of never playing in a World Cup.

As such the pattern of these second legs can be hard to predict because so much is at stake. Bosnia will be desperate not to concede a potentially decisive away goal, but on the other hand, have to score at some point.

In Paris, where France, leading 1-0 from the first leg, take on Ireland, the situation is a little clearer. They don’t have to score, Ireland do, and are likely to build the game from the back.

Neither team is in the finest attacking form and as such a bet on a scoreline involving less than 1.5 goals looks not too bad with Betfair’s World Cup betting market, at 3.15. Value for wins for the likes of France is likely to be poor, so, as with the first legs, scorelines and over/under goal totals could be the way to go.

Over to the Railway Stakes now, where a pot of $1 million is up for grabs at Ascot on Saturday. First of all, Kasabian, a local chance, is out of the race having developed swelling in a foreleg. Gold Salute is still on top in the betting with All American not a million miles away.

I’m afraid outside the top two or three we are seeing a complicated market at the moment, with some runners spread at around 8.00 to 10.00 and a heap on around 16.00. This could make a placings shout very tricky. More on this on Friday. In the meantime, marvel at the sound of millions of hearts breaking as the World Cup qualification process finally comes to an end.

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Kidnapped nabs me a weekend sweetener

Monday, November 16th, 2009

A dodgy deflection denied me a 0-0 scoreline and a correct prediction for the Ireland – France World Cup play-off on Saturday, and as such I feel as green at the gills as the Irish squad, who played well throughout and even fashioned the better chances.

Over in Russia a surprise Slovenia goal edged out my shout for a 2-0 home win, which confounded my disappointment from the Sandown Classic, which was won by Zipping for the third time in a row – quite an achievement and I won’t begrudge him that one. For the record, my shout Master O’Reilly was third behind Purple.

Thankfully my poor luck ended with a win for Kidnapped in the Sandown Guineas. Peter Snowden’s promising youngster pulled off a classy performance and made the bookies weep – you could get 2.50 when I tipped him and he shrunk to around 2.10 before the race.

Now for some more news on the Railway Stakes – Saturday’s $1 million highlight and quite simply the biggest race in Australia since the Melbourne action.

At this stage we’re still not sure whether Ortensia, likely to be a serious contender, is even going to appear. We should find out tomorrow when jockey Craig Williams takes her for a run round Ascot in the morning – the result of this will decide whether or not she turns up in the Railway or is held for the group 2 Winterbottom Stakes the week after.

Elsewhere, the profile of the race is to be boosted by the presence of three high-profile jockeys who will be taking mounts in the run – Damien Oliver, Nash Rawiller and William Pike.

Pike is a local Perth favourite, while Oliver hails from the area but plies his usual trade in Melbourne. Rawiller is being released by the Gai Waterhouse stable and will be on Sniper’s Bullet on Saturday.

Most betting markets are yet to open for the Railway, but midweek will be spiced up by the presence of the second leg of the World Cup play-offs. Can Ireland pinch a win in Paris? Sacre bleu.

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Sandown Classic betting looks a tricky task

Friday, November 13th, 2009

I’ve been waiting all week for the online horse racing betting markets for the Sandown Classic to open, and now they have, I almost wish they’d stayed shut.

Scenic Shot has emerged as a 3.50 favourite with IASbet, but behind this horse the field is tighter than a duck’s backside – four horses are between around 5.00 and 9.00, while there are some strong enough contenders at around the 11.00 to 12.00 mark.

Bearing that in mind, I had a nose round for value for Scenic Shot and found not much. Betfair is offering 3.80, which is as good as you’re going to get at the moment. Delving into the background of stayer Scenic Shot, the price seems based on a win in the Mackinnon Stakes, although it’s worth bearing in mind this was an easy victory for him.

Master O’Reilly at 5.00 with IASbet is interesting – the horse hasn’t won for two years but did well to come fourth in the Melbourne Cup and the pace on Saturday could dictate how he does. Lighting could strike three times with Zipping, who has won this race twice before, but a hat-trick is a bit too much for my probability meter to bear.

A word on the Sandown Guineas too, which is on the card just before the classic – here we have a less tempestuous field and Kidnapped is the firm favourite. 2.50 at Betfair is the best price I could find, but this is much more secure than the 3.00 – odd you’ll get for Scenic Shot in the Classic in my opinion.

Therefore I’d be inclined to lean towards Kidnapped in the Guineas and a smaller wedge on Master O’Reilly – he does look to be in very good shape, and at the end of the day, he’s got to win a bloody race sometime. This could finally be it after a dry run which stretches back to a win in the Caulfield Cup win in 2007.

On Saturday I’ll be concentrating on the soccer again – there’s a wealth of World Cup qualifying play-off games, and some interesting betting. Turf’s up.

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Highs, lows and nearly-theres – the story so far

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

It seems so long now since I was sounding out Voice Commander in the Warwick Stakes back in August – a whole season of racing has thundered by since then, and all-in-all, besides some shocks, surprises and downright screw-ups, I’m pretty happy with my work for the spring. Not bad for a pom.

As it happens Voice Commander was one of my early tipping failures after Trusting overturned him – but thankfully I bounced back with Secret Flyer in the BC3 Future Stars.

See below a summary of some of my tipping successes over the last three months – along with the odds at the time I tipped them, where I recorded them, and a ‘P’ in brackets for successful placings shouts rather than when I picked a winner.

August
Secret Flyer – BC3 Future Stars – 2.70
Glowlamp – Intergaze Maiden Plate – 1.85 (grew to 2.25)

September
Denman – Golden Rose – 2.64
Mic Mac – Memsie – 3.00
Mr Clangtastic – Wyong Gold Cup – 3.70
Black Piranha – Danehill Stakes – 1.75
Miss Marielle (P) – Chelmsford Stakes – 6.33
Denman – Stan Fox Stakes – 1.60

October
Whobegotyou – Yalumba Stakes
Shamoline Warrior – Norman Robinson Stakes – 3.80
Roman Emperor (P) – Caulfield Cup – 6.00
Manhattan Rain (P) – Cox Plate – 6.00

November
Crime Scene (P) – Melbourne Cup – 12.50

Looking back over these, it doesn’t look to bad at all – and that Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup placings hat-trick shows I got into the swing of things and hit form at the right time. Of course, besides the successes listed here, there was also a good smattering of failure – in particular I was irked at the failure of Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup -but overall I’m happy with my handiwork.

This Saturday I’ll be hoping to carry my form into the meeting at Sandown, with the online bookmakers yet to open their markets for the day. Of special interest will be the Sandown Classic, which could be tricky because a number of horses with high profiles are appearing – but will be out of their usual comfort zones distance-wise. As such there’s the chance of an upset. Markets should be open Thursday-ish – I’ll keep you posted.

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A group 1 drought – but plenty of betting distractions

Sunday, November 8th, 2009

A glimpse over my Aussie listed racing calendar makes for rather stark reading on this lazy Sunday – group 1 silks will not be fluttering in the wind again until January.

According to my list, the next group 1 run is the Lightning Stakes over 1000m at Flemington on January 30. After the feast, so must come the famine – and by god we have eaten well over the last few weeks.

There are plenty of other summer tasters to whet the appetite – next Saturday there’s a meeting at Sandown with a pair of group 2 races – the Sandown Classic and the Sandown Guineas.

To distract us we also have the Melbourne Cup. No, not last Tuesday, but Melbourne Cup 2010 – the build-up to which has already begun. No, seriously, it has – officially, with Victoria Racing Club pretty much releasing a statement to this effect and promising an extra $500,000 in prize money for next year’s event. The Queen may even make an appearance in 2010 as it’ll be the 150th anniversary of the race that stops a nation. Maybe she can hitch a lift on the Quantas with me.

Aside from the turf of the track I’m also quite partial to the turf of a football pitch – that’s proper football or ’soccer’ to you.

Australia are already through to next year’s World Cup, although plenty more have not been so lucky. A number of high-profile teams are facing the relative humiliation of a two-legged play-off after a stuttering qualification campaign, and France are one of them.

The 1998 winners have to play Ireland over two ties, with away goals counting double and the first match in Dublin next Saturday. On paper it looks like a no-brainer – France have also won two European Championships and two Confederations Cups, whereas Ireland have won precisely nothing and weren’t even in the last World Cup in 2006.

However, Ireland were immensely unlucky not to qualify direct – they were unbeaten in their group but ended up second to Italy, who are the defending champions. En route to their second place Ireland got a 2-2 draw in Italy and were winning in their home fixture 1-0 against the likes of Buffon and Pirlo before a last-minute equaliser robbed them of a famous win.

France, on the other hand, stuttered during qualification and are arguably lucky to even be in the play-offs. A bet on a draw in Dublin next Saturday looks good at 3.15 with Betfair.

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Emirates Stakes provides a fine send-off for carnival week

Friday, November 6th, 2009

Flemington has certainly seen some emotion over the last week or so. And who’d bet against another roller-coaster ride this weekend as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to and end?

The golden egg evaded me on Tuesday when Shocking won the Melbourne Cup, rather than Roman Emperor or Viewed, but all in all, I can’t complain thanks to the performance of Crime Scene, who came second in the big one, or the showing of Faint Perfume in the Crown Oaks, who will have made many punters happy on Thursday if they managed to find decent value for her.

Faint Perfume was of course trained by Bart Cummings. Generally, over the last few weeks, if a horse has won a headliner, it’s been trained by Bart Cummings, bar the Melbourne Cup. Even though he’s put a smile on my face and on the faces of many others, I’m almost fed up with talking about him – but he is unavoidable. He is, quite simply, a legend. You don’t pick up the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate and the Crown Oaks, plus a fair few others, by getting lucky.

I quite fancy that run to continue on Saturday when the fun winds down with the group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The favourite all week has been So You Think – the Cummings three-year-old who won the Cox Plate last month. IASbet offered him at 3.00 when the betting opened earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 2.90. Closest to this is Gold Salute, who is worth keeping an eye on – the same bookmaker opened this horse at 9.00 but it’s since plunged to 6.50.

As such we are forced to go hunting for value for the favourite – Betfair has him on 3.35 for the win and this is my shout as of Friday evening. Also of interest is the Patinack Farm Classic, where cult hero Apache Cat is appearing and is on 4.90 with Betfair – I’m not convinced this is that great given the hype and 3.85 for favourite All Silent looks a bit better. Depending on how your week has gone, the pain or joy is almost at an end. I’ll be back next week to tell you which one I’m feeling.

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Crime Scene continues my impressive placings form

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

As Crime Scene surged out ahead of the pack on Tuesday I could almost feel the gods whispering on my shoulder.

The 2009 Melbourne Cup, for all the pre-race claims of a relatively weak field, stirred the hearts of even the most hardened punters as Bart Cummings’ bid for a lucky 13th Cup was shot down in flames.

For about 50 metres it looked like British-based Crime Scene would steal the show. A pom. A tea-slurper. A limey. One of my very own.

I knew better though – over the course of the season I’ve been patchy at best when it comes to picking the winners but I’m frankly proud of my record when it comes to the placings.

For Crime Scene to win, the natural order would have had to be broken. My placings shouts are always coming second – when I tipped Crime Scene for a top three finish on Monday at 12.50 a friend of mine in Sydney chuckled and announced his money was on Alcopop. Clearly he doesn’t read this blog.

Manhattan Rain in the Cox Plate and Roman Emperor in the Caulfield Cup have so far showed there is method to my placings madness, which was why I was the least surprised of all when Crime Scene came storming through, got caught by Shocking, and settled into second. It was written in the wind. To complete the usual form, my winner tips of Viewed and Roman Emperor were nowhere to be seen.

There isn’t much which can knock me off my flawed high horse now, but no doubt the Crown Oaks and Emirates Stakes will do their best.

Betting for Thursday’s Crown Oaks at Flemington is being dominated by Bart Cummings again. His filly Faint Perfume is the favourite on the slightly ludicrous price of 1.65 with many bookmakers. Some may feel the big man’s luck is out after his trio of horses failed to win the cup on Tuesday, but everything here suggests only a massive shock can stand in the way of Faint Perfume. Value will be the problem and a clutch of horses sub-16.00 means even placings prices are not the best for those in with a shout.

Looking ahead to the finale of the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, and Bart is there again with Cox Plate winner So You Think likely to feature – most online horse racing markets aren’t open yet so I’ll come back to this on Friday.

Until then, enjoy the Crown Oaks and spend those Melbourne Cup winnings wisely. If you came away with a loss, don’t worry, the carnival is nearly over.

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