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Cox Plate betting clues at Moonee

Saturday, September 12th, 2009

The most intriguing horse racing betting market of the weekend is still the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley – which can show us the way to the Cox Plate winner if history is anything to go by.

With crucial AFL finals games also on the calendar the Pom de Turf is feeling a bit flustered with excitement. Nothing for it but to lazily stretch and stick my neck out.

Just briefly, is it just me who finds the name ‘Moonee Valley’ amusing? If anyone can enlighten me on the real (and no doubt thoroughly serious) story behind the course’s title, please feel free to leave a comment.

Anyway, first to the aforementioned $500,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, which is a group 2 1,600m affair. Like quite a few races at this time of year, its significant not just because of the strong field, but because it normally provides clues as to which horses could stand out in certain headliners later in the season. In this case, the Cox Plate.

El Segundo, appearing tomorrow, won both this race and the Plate in 2007 and has so far been looking good. As a result he’s well in the betting and is the 5.50 third favourite with Betfair.

Second favourite at the moment is Mic Mac, on 4.00 with the same bookmaker and who I discussed in depth yesterday. He’s got seven wins from eight starts but faces his toughest test yet on Saturday, and his only loss came at his only previous attempt at this distance.

Leading the betting is Whobegotyou, who is on 2.60 with the same bookmaker, has a great record on this course and is known for strong finishes at this distance. However, this price makes El Segundo’s 5.50 look like a much better shot and that’s who I’d recommend for the win. As an outside bet, the obvious candidate is Singapore star Jolie’s Shinju on 9.00 with Betfair.

On to the AFL week two finals now and on Saturday Adelaide take on Collingwood, with the former having the better recent head-to-head record for this one, and they have also had two extra days rest. However, it’s tricky to find good value – 1.76 with Betfair on Adelaide is probably your best shot.

Here’s hoping last weekend’s tipping was not just a one-off. Enjoy Saturday turf fans.

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Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics

Friday, September 11th, 2009

“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.

No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.

One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.

While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.

Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.

Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.

To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.

Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.

More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.

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Murray madness, Moonee Valley betting and a look at the NRL and AFL finals

Friday, September 11th, 2009

My street cred in the online tennis betting world is in tatters this morning thanks to Andy Murray, who was looking quite plausible for the US Open on 4.00 with Canbet yesterday.

That was until he decided to implode against Marin Cilic in the fourth round and go down in straight sets. Cheers Andy.

Looking on the bright side, Rafael Nadal looked much better in his own fourth round clash with Gael Monfils, showing little signs of his injury troubles to win in four sets. He’s since shrunk to 5.00 for the tournament with Canbet, which is still looking reasonable against Roger Federer’s measly 1.62.

Back to the horse racing tipping now and my hunch, Wanna Play Doctor, note ‘hunch’ that’s H-U-N-C-H, came fourth in the Perth Racing Tv Handicap at Belmont Park on Wednesday. His record is still one win and a fourth place in three starts.

Elsewhere and looking ahead to the weekend racing I’m already intrigued by the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Lining up are two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, the former of which has a great record at this venue, not least the Cox Plate itself in 2007. Whobegotyou is last season’s Caulfield Guineas winner and both are at the top of this year’s Cox Plate betting. I’ll be keeping an eye on these two and rest of the field going into the end of the week.

Now on to the markets for the AFL and NRL finals, which are all over the place as the week’s build-ups gather place.

To summarise, the AFL semis are on Friday and Saturday, with Western Bulldogs (1.25) taking on Brisbane Lions (4.00) and Collingwood Magpies (2.12) against Adelaide Crows (1.73), with current odds from Centrenbet.

With the NRL finals, week one starts on Friday with Storm v Sea Eagles, then Saturday sees Titans v Broncos and Bulldogs v Knights, followed by Dragons v Eels on Sunday. Overall current favourites are St George on 3.25, with Melbourne Storm on 5.50. I’ll be monitoring the team news as it happens this week before casting my hat into the ring.

There you go, four sports in one post, that should make you feel better after Murraygate.

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Black Caviar today. The horse, not the sturgeon eggs. Saturday wasn’t that successful.

Thursday, September 3rd, 2009

Besides tipping who is going to win races, I’ve recently been trying to pick up on who is not going to make the grade. Unsurprisingly deciding which bets are likely to fall flat is easier, but there is at least some brainpower needed.

For example it would’ve been easy to plump for Trusting in the Golden Rose on Saturday given his previous win in the Warwick Stakes – and with many bookies he was joint second favourite on about 5.80 on Thursday and Friday. I decided to steer clear because one Warwick Stakes win does not a Golden Rose winner make and the coverage of Trusting had smelled partly of pure hype the week before. Hence I went with Denman as a safer bet.

The point I’m trying to make is it may seem risky to call an avoid on a horse who appears to be attracting plenty of attention and plaudits, but there is method to my madness.

On Saturday we have the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington and Manhattan Rain, trained by Gai Waterhouse and known as one of the most valuable horses this side of the Danube, will be appearing. Given his touted worth of $20 million you’d think he’d be a wise move for Saturday but the midweek reports suggest otherwise.

Today the press has been awash with the news he didn’t fare that well in a four-horse 800m trial on Tuesday and will have blinkers on Saturday.

“It was a bit like ‘Well, here I am’,” is how Gail Waterhouse described his performance in the Sydney Morning Herald. I know just how he feels. Anyway, early doors he may be among the favourites but this race also involves filly Black Caviar, as yet unbeaten, while Grand Harmony was the winner of Tuesday’s trial and lead all the way to win at Seymour last month.

While I’ve got your attention it’s worth taking a look at how Saturday’s result in the Golden Rose has affected Denman’s odds for the season’s main events. He is now at 17.00 for the Cox Plate with IASbet, ahead of the aforementioned Black Caviar, who is on 21.00 for the Plate – possibly worth a shot now before what could be a good performance from the filly on Saturday?

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Bombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose

Saturday, August 29th, 2009

Bombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose

There’s nothing like the first group 1 horse racing betting of the season to test your mettle and the market for the Golden Rose at Rosehill is already boiling and getting hotter. This means I finally have to commit to some tipping or I’ll probably turn red and sweaty like a lobster.

To recap, much noise was made earlier in the week for youngster Trusting after he won the Warwick Stakes, and he stands at 5.80 with Betfair. However, as of Friday the same bookmaker was offering a reasonable-looking 6.40 for Phelan Ready who has shortened to 5.50 with some other bookies.

Denman remains the firm favourite at 2.64 with Betfair and is backed up by a barrier four draw. Denman won the Run to the Rose and it would be a significant surprise if he didn’t at least make the top two. A reasonable wedge might well be worthwhile on him, but go for Phelan Ready on those Betfair odds if you are after something sexier.

The real cash is likely to come from the placings, and there are some decent-looking shots hovering around the 20.00 – plus odds for the win.

This translates to 8.81 for a placings punt on Bombay Sling with IASbet, who is out at 31.00 for the win with the same bookmaker. Other placings bets don’t look nearly as worthwhile.

Got it? Good. On to the Memsie group 2 over at Caulfield now and the feel of the betting almost reflects the fact attention is not so much on the winner but on the field, as many a recent Cox Plate winner has run in the Memsie. Mic Mac is way out in front at 2.60 with IASbet and has all sorts going for him – especially the barrier four draw. El Segundo is second favourite on 4.80 but Whobegotyou looks better at 5.00. If you are feeling all brave and bolshy and the approaching smell of spring has you all confident, I like the look of Sea Battle at 15.00 with IASbet. Don’t look at me if this one falls on its face though because Mic Mac is well and truly the Mr Safe for this.

The Pom De Turf will be back on Tuesday – I’ll need Monday to recover from the commiserations or celebrations. Meanwhile enjoy the return of group 1. It promises to be a sizzling spring.

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Memsie promises to give season clues

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

Attention will rightly be focused on the Golden Rose on Saturday but the hardcore punters among us, including the Pom de Turf, will also have keen eyes on the Memsie stakes over at Caulfield on Saturday.

The attraction lies in the fact horses who have run in the Memsie have often gone on to win the Cox Plate – although it’s not necessarily the winner who goes on to victory in the big one at Moonee Valley later in the season.

Some basics for the Memsie morons out there – it’s a group 2 weight-for-age race over 1400m and there are usually plenty of glamorous names preparing not just for the Plate but also for the Melbourne Cup – who are often not yet as fit as less well-known runners who tend to do quite well.

El Segundo is running on Saturday having already won it once in 2006 and is apparently not showing his age going into a shot at a second.

After the 2006 victory he went on to win the Underwood Stakes and got himself placings in the Caulfield Stakes and Cox Plate later in the same campaign.

So besides him, who else could be worth a look on Saturday? Sea Battle is being ridden Craig Williams, who piloted Miss Finland to victory in this one in 2007, but Sea Battle hasn’t raced since November.

Whobegotyou could be a better shout – he’s the early Cox Plate favourite and did well when resuming to seal second in the recent Liston Stakes – which is probably a better indicator than the glittering historical form but less inspiring early season patter of other familiar names lining up on Saturday. More on this one later in the week.

Back to the Golden Rose build up-now and Denman currently remains the firm favourite at 2.75 with Centrebet. My interest is, however, drifting towards Bombay Sling, at 21.00 with Centrebet, and Porsched, who is currently looking a decent placings bet at 7.50. Interestingly, Centrebet also has outsider Magic Model at 81.00 down from 101.00 earlier in the week, so worth keeping an eye on going into Thursday/Friday.

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