Posts Tagged ‘tipping’

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Two runners stand out in Winterbottom betting

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

So The Winterbottom Stakes are nearly here, and the occasion is trying its best to be anything but a one (or two) horse race.

The race is a huge $500,000 affair, not bad for a 1200m run. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but pundits are swearing blind there are two runners in the big one that could well be strolling past the line with ease.

The jockey from Melbourne, Nash Rawiller, is going to be on Lucky Secret. And the good news for him is that he has been riding the same horse for his last three wins. However, there is another secret at The Winterbottom, namely Waratah’s Secret, another great little runner, to be run by Paul Harvey, who is no slouch by any means.

Waratah’s secret is a three year old, and one that has been totally spruced up energy wise by the trainer, one David Harrison. Harrison must be aiming high. It’s all gearing up to be a great race, but what about the results? What’s the score on this?

As regards Waratah’s Secret, IASBet has the young horse on at 4.40, which is hardly something to ignore. So everyone likes the Secrets, but some bookies are tipping it the other way, so we’ll give you more bang for your buck here, and name a couple of good options for you to consider come race day.

Apache Cat has been getting some favourable press recently. While Neil Evans from Centrebet names Danny Beau as a possible player. He’s on at 8.0.

You got all of that? I know, none the wiser. But give it a go. Maybe a few safe bets will involve the spilling of some Secrets…

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Who will pinch the Winterbottom?

Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

It’s interesting seeing which races are available when in the online betting markets – for example, the Melbourne Cup was up and running wager-wise months before the actual event took place, much as you would expect.

Saturday’s Railway Stakes was a different matter – even though it was the first main group 1 event since Cup week, the usual bookmakers didn’t open their betting on it until around Wednesday. Even Betfair and IASbet, who seem among the earliest with most races, didn’t get going on it properly until the middle of last week.

Strange then, that the Winterbottom Stakes, due to appear next Saturday, is already on the go over the web, and in some cases was up and running before bets were being processed on the Railway.

When I had a good root around on Saturday, before the Railway, you could get 4.20 for Warathas Secret at the top of the Winterbottom market at IASbet – while a number of runners who were due to feature in the Railway were in there at tempting prices.

All American, second favourite for the Railway most of the week, was on 31.00 for the Winterbottom, for example.

A point worth bearing in mind, and there will of course be more on the three-year-olds and up race at Ascot throughout the week.

Elsewhere, back with the soccer, all of the major European leagues have now passed the ten games played stage – always a good benchmark to decide who really is in and who is definitely out, when it comes to title races.

In the English Premier League betting markets, Chelsea, the current league leaders, are still the favourites, while Liverpool’s challenge is already all but dead and buried after a poor start.

Holders Manchester United have faltered of late while Arsenal have been growing slowly and steadily. Although there’s little to choose between them and United, points-wise anyway, Arsenal at the moment look like a side capable of powering through later in the season and providing some value – Betfair have them at 5.00 now and this could be the best value for a side which is not Chelsea- the Blues are far too low in many markets given how early in the season it still is.

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Odds for Railway Stakes raiders could be deceptive

Friday, November 20th, 2009

Welcome to Friday. Hello, fans of the Irish soccer team. Remember what I was saying earlier in the week about so much being at stake? Painfully demonstrated by Thierry Henry’s handball – but at least if you slapped some cash on under 1.5 goals going in during normal time you had something to take the edge off. For the record, if FIFA and France agree to replay the game, I’ll eat my South Africa 2010 wall chart.

Back to the racing, and much of the attention has been on the Railway Stakes at Ascot. The track press have had little else of this level to talk about since Melbourne Cup day, so it’s not surprising I’ve now got Saturday’s $1 million race flashing before my eyes in a thousand hypey headlines.

The line-up is a mixture of Perth local runners and eastern chances, some of whom will be lining up on Saturday chiefly because they were out of luck in Sydney and Melbourne over the spring.

Among them is the week-long favourite Gold Salute, on 3.20 with IASbet, having firmed from 4.00. This isn’t great value, with plenty of runners hovering highly ominously around the 9.00 to 14.00 mark. It’s worth remembering that while in the past many horses have headed west for this race with big billings and small odds, many of them have failed.

Besides this, any one of All American, Ortensia and Grand Nirvana are in with a very strong shout indeed, and if Sniper’s Bullet can negotiate the barrier 14 draw, he’ll be a dangerous one too.

All this doesn’t help I know, but there is value for Largo Lad, at 19.00, dropping from 26.00 with IASbet, and good at the mile. Megatic at 17.00 with the same bookmaker looks reasonable.

It’s a tricky one this, but if you cast your eyes to race 2 on the card for Ascot on Saturday you will find the Carlton Mid Handicap – Thorn Dancer is well fancied here and is a paltry 1.80 with IASbet – if you can find better than that this could be a good safety net.

Back on Sunday, turf’s up folks.

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Highs, lows and nearly-theres – the story so far

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

It seems so long now since I was sounding out Voice Commander in the Warwick Stakes back in August – a whole season of racing has thundered by since then, and all-in-all, besides some shocks, surprises and downright screw-ups, I’m pretty happy with my work for the spring. Not bad for a pom.

As it happens Voice Commander was one of my early tipping failures after Trusting overturned him – but thankfully I bounced back with Secret Flyer in the BC3 Future Stars.

See below a summary of some of my tipping successes over the last three months – along with the odds at the time I tipped them, where I recorded them, and a ‘P’ in brackets for successful placings shouts rather than when I picked a winner.

August
Secret Flyer – BC3 Future Stars – 2.70
Glowlamp – Intergaze Maiden Plate – 1.85 (grew to 2.25)

September
Denman – Golden Rose – 2.64
Mic Mac – Memsie – 3.00
Mr Clangtastic – Wyong Gold Cup – 3.70
Black Piranha – Danehill Stakes – 1.75
Miss Marielle (P) – Chelmsford Stakes – 6.33
Denman – Stan Fox Stakes – 1.60

October
Whobegotyou – Yalumba Stakes
Shamoline Warrior – Norman Robinson Stakes – 3.80
Roman Emperor (P) – Caulfield Cup – 6.00
Manhattan Rain (P) – Cox Plate – 6.00

November
Crime Scene (P) – Melbourne Cup – 12.50

Looking back over these, it doesn’t look to bad at all – and that Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup placings hat-trick shows I got into the swing of things and hit form at the right time. Of course, besides the successes listed here, there was also a good smattering of failure – in particular I was irked at the failure of Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup -but overall I’m happy with my handiwork.

This Saturday I’ll be hoping to carry my form into the meeting at Sandown, with the online bookmakers yet to open their markets for the day. Of special interest will be the Sandown Classic, which could be tricky because a number of horses with high profiles are appearing – but will be out of their usual comfort zones distance-wise. As such there’s the chance of an upset. Markets should be open Thursday-ish – I’ll keep you posted.

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Emirates Stakes provides a fine send-off for carnival week

Friday, November 6th, 2009

Flemington has certainly seen some emotion over the last week or so. And who’d bet against another roller-coaster ride this weekend as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to and end?

The golden egg evaded me on Tuesday when Shocking won the Melbourne Cup, rather than Roman Emperor or Viewed, but all in all, I can’t complain thanks to the performance of Crime Scene, who came second in the big one, or the showing of Faint Perfume in the Crown Oaks, who will have made many punters happy on Thursday if they managed to find decent value for her.

Faint Perfume was of course trained by Bart Cummings. Generally, over the last few weeks, if a horse has won a headliner, it’s been trained by Bart Cummings, bar the Melbourne Cup. Even though he’s put a smile on my face and on the faces of many others, I’m almost fed up with talking about him – but he is unavoidable. He is, quite simply, a legend. You don’t pick up the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate and the Crown Oaks, plus a fair few others, by getting lucky.

I quite fancy that run to continue on Saturday when the fun winds down with the group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The favourite all week has been So You Think – the Cummings three-year-old who won the Cox Plate last month. IASbet offered him at 3.00 when the betting opened earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 2.90. Closest to this is Gold Salute, who is worth keeping an eye on – the same bookmaker opened this horse at 9.00 but it’s since plunged to 6.50.

As such we are forced to go hunting for value for the favourite – Betfair has him on 3.35 for the win and this is my shout as of Friday evening. Also of interest is the Patinack Farm Classic, where cult hero Apache Cat is appearing and is on 4.90 with Betfair – I’m not convinced this is that great given the hype and 3.85 for favourite All Silent looks a bit better. Depending on how your week has gone, the pain or joy is almost at an end. I’ll be back next week to tell you which one I’m feeling.

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Crime Scene continues my impressive placings form

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

As Crime Scene surged out ahead of the pack on Tuesday I could almost feel the gods whispering on my shoulder.

The 2009 Melbourne Cup, for all the pre-race claims of a relatively weak field, stirred the hearts of even the most hardened punters as Bart Cummings’ bid for a lucky 13th Cup was shot down in flames.

For about 50 metres it looked like British-based Crime Scene would steal the show. A pom. A tea-slurper. A limey. One of my very own.

I knew better though – over the course of the season I’ve been patchy at best when it comes to picking the winners but I’m frankly proud of my record when it comes to the placings.

For Crime Scene to win, the natural order would have had to be broken. My placings shouts are always coming second – when I tipped Crime Scene for a top three finish on Monday at 12.50 a friend of mine in Sydney chuckled and announced his money was on Alcopop. Clearly he doesn’t read this blog.

Manhattan Rain in the Cox Plate and Roman Emperor in the Caulfield Cup have so far showed there is method to my placings madness, which was why I was the least surprised of all when Crime Scene came storming through, got caught by Shocking, and settled into second. It was written in the wind. To complete the usual form, my winner tips of Viewed and Roman Emperor were nowhere to be seen.

There isn’t much which can knock me off my flawed high horse now, but no doubt the Crown Oaks and Emirates Stakes will do their best.

Betting for Thursday’s Crown Oaks at Flemington is being dominated by Bart Cummings again. His filly Faint Perfume is the favourite on the slightly ludicrous price of 1.65 with many bookmakers. Some may feel the big man’s luck is out after his trio of horses failed to win the cup on Tuesday, but everything here suggests only a massive shock can stand in the way of Faint Perfume. Value will be the problem and a clutch of horses sub-16.00 means even placings prices are not the best for those in with a shout.

Looking ahead to the finale of the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, and Bart is there again with Cox Plate winner So You Think likely to feature – most online horse racing markets aren’t open yet so I’ll come back to this on Friday.

Until then, enjoy the Crown Oaks and spend those Melbourne Cup winnings wisely. If you came away with a loss, don’t worry, the carnival is nearly over.

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Melbourne Cup musings and a final Derby tipping rundown

Friday, October 30th, 2009

Barely four days are left before we reach the season’s climax, and an intriguing betting market seems to suggest the 2009 Melbourne Cup will be well worth the wait.

One of the biggest stories of the last couple of days has been the condition of Efficient, the 2007 winner who had previously been a joint favourite with Alcopop. He’s now out at 10.00-plus with Betfair after it was revealed the stable is watching an old injury to his off foreleg. This might not tell the whole story – the problem has apparently been knocking about for over a year now and didn’t stop him winning the Turnbull Stakes in his last start. Therefore the drift may actually be a chance to grab a good price on a previous favourite – I’d be surprised if he didn’t run, but at the same time I’d take the drifting price without sticking my house on it.

That’s just one of a number to look out for – there’s a clutch of runners around the 20.00 mark at Betfair who I like the look of – especially Kirklees at 27.00 who has reportedly been looking very good indeed in trackwork this week.

More of course on Tuesday morning. I’ll be tracking Efficient like a hawk and making some placings shouts.

For now its back to Victoria Derby Day, where among others there is the distraction of the Myer Classic. Typhoon Tracy is the current favourite and has been all week – a small one on her might be worth it, while a placings shot on Lady Lynette looks ok, if you can find a reasonable price.

So to the main event itself, where IASbet is still listing Shamoline Warriror as the favourite at 3.20. However, Onemorenomore is now at 9.00 and falling and could be worth a go now before he possibly closes up further near the race.

Last and by no mean least, the 2500m $1.5 million group 1 run has a Pom De Turf ‘comedy dollar’ candidate. Prinsom is on a whopping 251.00 with the same bookmaker. I’ve studied his recent results carefully, and, yep, he hasn’t got a hope in hell, but it’s Derby day and anything can happen. Slightly strangely IASbet have him at a comparatively skinny 15.91 to make the placings. If I could explain that, I’d be a bookie, not a blogger. Turf’s Up.

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Manhattan Rain causes a storm but who’d bet against Bart?

Monday, October 26th, 2009

It was another mixture of satisfaction and frustration on Saturday as I came good with my shout for the placings but fell down when it came to the winner. Whobegotyou failed to live up to his clear favourite tag for the Cox Plate and was well out of the placings, as So You Think, who almost no-one had talked about, led from the off to win.

But finally, at last, Manhattan Rain showed us what he’s made of and came in second. He was on 6.00 for each way with Centrebet when I recommended him earlier in the week and that almost wiped out the disappointment of ‘Whobe’, who was on a rather skinny 3.00 and even below around race time.

I’m rapidly developing a record of failing to pick out a winner but always pulling out a placer, having repeated the feat in the Caulfield Cup with Kirklees also nowhere to be seen but Roman Emperor making good my each-way shout.

Saturday’s result now also throws up an interesting problem for punters – Bart Cummings is fast becoming a ‘don’t bet against’ trainer, having been behind So You Think and Caulfield Cup winner Viewed. Que much talk of knighthoods, multiple ‘living legends’ and several ‘geniuses’. To many punters, including me, the man is frankly a menace, but credit to him.

He’s also got six horses who could appear in the Melbourne Cup, prompting Sportingbet to offer up a tempting morsel. ‘Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup?’ the bookmaker asks, and they are offering 4.50 on the winner next Tuesday being another Bart beauty. Should you feel Flemington’s gala feature is just a step too far even for him, Sportingbet will give you 1.20.

Three of his six are assured of a start – Viewed, Roman Emperor and Allez Wonder and Sportingbet has Viewed at 7.00 and Roman Emperor at 12.00 for the Melbourne Cup, while Allez Wonder is at 31.00. Current joint favourites with the same bookmaker are Efficient and Alcopop on 6.00.

We all now live in fear of being Barted into oblivion if we dare not to back one of his charges. At least there’s the distraction of the Victoria Derby on Saturday before we have to face the legend and the main event.

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Whobe is home from home today

Saturday, October 24th, 2009

Unlike plenty of other runners in today’s Cox Plate, favourite Whobegotyou has only been hanging about getting familiar with Moonee Valley for a day or two.

While other trainers were making sure their runners were given plenty of opportunity to pound the circuit and familiarise themselves with the turf that will make and break fortunes today, Whobegotyou arrived late. On Thursday he was still at Flemington, where trainer Mark Kavanagh kept him in his regular routine.

Carelessness on the part of Kavanagh? Overconfidence? Not at all. ‘Whobe’ does not need the practice at Moonee Valley. Four times he has run here, four times he has won. This place is his second home.

His jockey is Damien Oliver, who told The Age the conditions seem to do him a favour.
“He’s one of those horses that seem really comfortable here,” Oliver has said. “The track does seem to have a bit more give than most tracks, and that’s probably receptive to him.”

So in his natural environment he will make hay and leave all in his wake. A bit like me and a free buffet.

But Oliver did have a warning for those punters who are hoping for a better day than the open and carnivorous field of the Caulfield Cup last week – watch out for El Segundo, he said, who also likes the Moonee Valley wind in his hair. The Colin Little-trained veteran has also won four times here – including the 2007 Cox Plate.

Value will be your problem today no doubt – although some people drifted away from Whobe after his barrier 10 draw, there will plenty of cash heading his way on race day and anything above 3.00 could be your best bet. Betfair has had him around 3.20 in recent days.

Shop around for those placings too – as of Friday only Manhattan Rain looked particularly sensible on 6.00 each way with some bookies, but a measly 4.00-odd is the best you may get for some of the better runners with most bookmakers. Heart Of Dreams has been a reasonably-priced second favourite all week and that shouldn’t change today, go with him if you’re looking to counterbalance a wedge on Whobe. I’m off to my own comfort of the buffet. Drinks are on me if the favourite wins.

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Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

A brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.

William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.

Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.

Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.

Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.

Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.

A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.

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