Posts Tagged ‘World Cup betting’

World Cup play-off betting and Railway Stakes update

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

A good overview of how you might play the World cup play-off betting tonight before I do a little update on the Railway Stakes, the main racing event for Saturday at Ascot.

By 11am AEDT we will know for sure which teams will be joining the likes of Australia and New Zealand in South Africa next year and which sides face another four-year wait before they have the chance to perform on soccer’s biggest stage.

Today’s World Cup play-off second legs will define the careers of some players – Portugal have been to the World Cup on numerous occasions, but have never won it. Go out against Bosnia tonight and playmaker Deco, at 32 years of age, can probably kiss goodbye any chance of winning the most famous prize in sport.

Elvir Rahimic, the Bosnian midfielder, is 33 and his team have never made the World Cup before – if his side fail to get the required result he too faces the prospect of never playing in a World Cup.

As such the pattern of these second legs can be hard to predict because so much is at stake. Bosnia will be desperate not to concede a potentially decisive away goal, but on the other hand, have to score at some point.

In Paris, where France, leading 1-0 from the first leg, take on Ireland, the situation is a little clearer. They don’t have to score, Ireland do, and are likely to build the game from the back.

Neither team is in the finest attacking form and as such a bet on a scoreline involving less than 1.5 goals looks not too bad with Betfair’s World Cup betting market, at 3.15. Value for wins for the likes of France is likely to be poor, so, as with the first legs, scorelines and over/under goal totals could be the way to go.

Over to the Railway Stakes now, where a pot of $1 million is up for grabs at Ascot on Saturday. First of all, Kasabian, a local chance, is out of the race having developed swelling in a foreleg. Gold Salute is still on top in the betting with All American not a million miles away.

I’m afraid outside the top two or three we are seeing a complicated market at the moment, with some runners spread at around 8.00 to 10.00 and a heap on around 16.00. This could make a placings shout very tricky. More on this on Friday. In the meantime, marvel at the sound of millions of hearts breaking as the World Cup qualification process finally comes to an end.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | 68 Comments »

Kidnapped nabs me a weekend sweetener

Monday, November 16th, 2009

A dodgy deflection denied me a 0-0 scoreline and a correct prediction for the Ireland – France World Cup play-off on Saturday, and as such I feel as green at the gills as the Irish squad, who played well throughout and even fashioned the better chances.

Over in Russia a surprise Slovenia goal edged out my shout for a 2-0 home win, which confounded my disappointment from the Sandown Classic, which was won by Zipping for the third time in a row – quite an achievement and I won’t begrudge him that one. For the record, my shout Master O’Reilly was third behind Purple.

Thankfully my poor luck ended with a win for Kidnapped in the Sandown Guineas. Peter Snowden’s promising youngster pulled off a classy performance and made the bookies weep – you could get 2.50 when I tipped him and he shrunk to around 2.10 before the race.

Now for some more news on the Railway Stakes – Saturday’s $1 million highlight and quite simply the biggest race in Australia since the Melbourne action.

At this stage we’re still not sure whether Ortensia, likely to be a serious contender, is even going to appear. We should find out tomorrow when jockey Craig Williams takes her for a run round Ascot in the morning – the result of this will decide whether or not she turns up in the Railway or is held for the group 2 Winterbottom Stakes the week after.

Elsewhere, the profile of the race is to be boosted by the presence of three high-profile jockeys who will be taking mounts in the run – Damien Oliver, Nash Rawiller and William Pike.

Pike is a local Perth favourite, while Oliver hails from the area but plies his usual trade in Melbourne. Rawiller is being released by the Gai Waterhouse stable and will be on Sniper’s Bullet on Saturday.

Most betting markets are yet to open for the Railway, but midweek will be spiced up by the presence of the second leg of the World Cup play-offs. Can Ireland pinch a win in Paris? Sacre bleu.

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | 21 Comments »

World cup odds favour correct score bets

Saturday, November 14th, 2009

Although nothing can be decided for certain today, the teams involved in the first legs of the World Cup qualification play-offs can virtually seal their seats to South Africa.

Here’s the deal – the teams playing today all came second in their qualifying groups and so missed out on an automatic pass to the biggest show on earth – instead they have been drawn against each other to play two legs home and away, with the winners of each tie going through and the losers staying at home next summer.

Today the first legs will be played, before the second legs come around on Wednesday, with away goals counting double.

For example, today Ukraine host Greece, and should the away side pull off a 2-2 draw, then draw 1-1 with Ukraine on their home turf next Wednesday, they are through by virtue of the extra away goal in the first leg. Got it? Good. Therefore whoever can pull of a handsome win today is in a mighty fine spot.

Let’s firstly turn to Russia against Slovenia in Moscow, with the home side unlucky to have to go through a play-off at all after narrowly finishing second to Germany in their group. Guus Hiddink’s side can call on the creativity and goal power of midfielder Andrey Arshavin, and have pedigree given their strong performance at Euro 2008. As such they look good for a 2-0 win at 6.80 with Betfair.

Also on Saturday we have Ireland hosting two-times champions France. Although France are the favourites to go through over all, Ireland pulled off two impressive draws against current world champions Italy in their group. In fact Ireland were beating Italy 1-0 until a last-minute Italian equaliser in their final group match, so should not be underestimated.

This is over two legs though and I feel France can mount a decent enough defence, however, in general they have not played well throughout qualification and haven’t exactly been free-scoring. A 0-0 at 8.00 with Betfair therefore looks good for this one. More next week when the deciding legs come around.

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

A group 1 drought – but plenty of betting distractions

Sunday, November 8th, 2009

A glimpse over my Aussie listed racing calendar makes for rather stark reading on this lazy Sunday – group 1 silks will not be fluttering in the wind again until January.

According to my list, the next group 1 run is the Lightning Stakes over 1000m at Flemington on January 30. After the feast, so must come the famine – and by god we have eaten well over the last few weeks.

There are plenty of other summer tasters to whet the appetite – next Saturday there’s a meeting at Sandown with a pair of group 2 races – the Sandown Classic and the Sandown Guineas.

To distract us we also have the Melbourne Cup. No, not last Tuesday, but Melbourne Cup 2010 – the build-up to which has already begun. No, seriously, it has – officially, with Victoria Racing Club pretty much releasing a statement to this effect and promising an extra $500,000 in prize money for next year’s event. The Queen may even make an appearance in 2010 as it’ll be the 150th anniversary of the race that stops a nation. Maybe she can hitch a lift on the Quantas with me.

Aside from the turf of the track I’m also quite partial to the turf of a football pitch – that’s proper football or ’soccer’ to you.

Australia are already through to next year’s World Cup, although plenty more have not been so lucky. A number of high-profile teams are facing the relative humiliation of a two-legged play-off after a stuttering qualification campaign, and France are one of them.

The 1998 winners have to play Ireland over two ties, with away goals counting double and the first match in Dublin next Saturday. On paper it looks like a no-brainer – France have also won two European Championships and two Confederations Cups, whereas Ireland have won precisely nothing and weren’t even in the last World Cup in 2006.

However, Ireland were immensely unlucky not to qualify direct – they were unbeaten in their group but ended up second to Italy, who are the defending champions. En route to their second place Ireland got a 2-2 draw in Italy and were winning in their home fixture 1-0 against the likes of Buffon and Pirlo before a last-minute equaliser robbed them of a famous win.

France, on the other hand, stuttered during qualification and are arguably lucky to even be in the play-offs. A bet on a draw in Dublin next Saturday looks good at 3.15 with Betfair.

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

The week ahead, including a World Cup betting blast

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

It’s Sunday and whether or not you had any luck at Caulfield yesterday, there’s no time to waste; the racing is coming thick and fast now.

Wednesday sees Australia’s top fillies line up for the Thousand Guineas, again at Caulfield, with Irish lights leading the betting, on 3.00 with IASbet. On to Saturday and we’re at Caulfield again for the Caulfield Cup, where Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is the current favourite, on odds of 5.00 with Centrebet.

As with the Thousand Guineas, I’ll be spending the next few days picking through the hype and gripes surrounding these two races in the hope of steering you in the right direction.

As it’s Sunday today, however, I decided it was time for some light reading in the shape of a scan around the soccer betting markets for World Cup 2010.

Next year’s tournament is in South Africa and a number of big names have already qualified with room to spare, this includes Brazil, who have already won it five times in the past, and Spain, who dazzled with their passing game in winning Euro 2008.

England have also already qualified, as of course have Australia. Also already in the mix are Holland, who had a decent showing themselves at Euro 2008 before being surprisingly knocked out by Russia.

Pretty much everywhere you look at this early stage you find Spain and Brazil rightly out in front. Both have a very good chance next year, with Brazil winning the warm-up Confederations Cup in South Africa early this year. They are on 5.50, level with Spain, at IASbet, for next year.

Bafflingly, behind these two, come England as the 7.00 third favourites. Granted, they did have a good qualification campaign but their win against Croatia to seal the deal last month was against an under-strength side lacking the talents of Luca Modric. As such they have not faced a true test in a competitive match for a while and it’s bizarre that they are rated as more likely to win than Holland, on 12.00 with the same bookmaker.

A word for Russia here. Ok, they do have the odd strange performance but going forward they can be exhilarating and they were unlucky to go out to Spain in the Euro 2008 semi-finals after a very good tournament which saw them beat Holland. 26.00 therefore looks good for them at this stage with IASbet.

Until tomorrow, when I’ll be counting the mental cost of the weekend’s racing.

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »