Posts Tagged ‘Bookies’
Aussie bookies should learn the art of bookmaking
April 28th, 2010 by adminThe recent “scandal” surrounding the Melbourne Storm breaching the NRL salary cap has highlighted the double standards existing amongst the Aussie bookmaking fraternity.
Bookies are crying foul that some punters managed to get a few quid at $250 for The Storm to take the wooden spoon, and that they used “insider information” to profit. And this is so unfair on the blokes with the satchels. How very dare a few intrepid punters do this!! It’s a disgrace.
Well come on bookies – lets take a look at the basic model of bookmaking. You offer prices based on the knowledge you have, you build in a margin, and then you try and “sell” betting opportunities to punters. Correct?
In doing this, you employ traders and odds compliers who have the greatest skill and judgement. And you trust them to beat the punters – which most of the time they do.
If a sports team has an injury worry, you know before punters. If a horse is well fancied for a race, you know before anyone else. And if a horse is “unfancied”, you know first and extend the price accordingly to tempt more bets. All of this is inside knowledge, but is an accepted part of the Bookies v Punters battle. Which is why we all love it.
So when, once in a blue moon, you are caught napping, please don’t complain. It is pitiful. Just hold your hands up and pay out. It’s good PR for you, and punters will come back and return their profits to you, with interest.
Read more »Twitter users pitch in with their Guineas betting twopence
October 9th, 2009 by adminTwitter might not be the best place to go hunting for Caulfield Guineas betting tips, but given the build-up to Saturday’s race is getting ever broader, it’s a welcome distraction from some of the predictable waffling coming from some sections of the media.
The main problem with this social media phenomenon is justification. 140 characters is barely enough to say what is happening, or to say what you think is going to happen, let alone say why it’s happening or why you think it’s likely to happen.
Take the following example;
Pom_De_Turf Trust me, turf lovers, Denman is the hottest prospect for the Caulfield Guineas betting on Saturday, he’s currently on odds of 2.80 (IASbet)
(140 characters)
There’s about enough room to squeeze in his odds, his name, the bookie, the race, the location, but as for saying why you think he’s in with a shout, forget it. Therefore taking your tweet as a tip is almost as much of a gamble as going in blind.
Of course, one hopes for a link in a tweet, taking the user to a long, detailed and almost scientific breakdown of why Denman is going to make you rich come booze-up time on Saturday, but ‘I think this nag is a cert’ often has to suffice.
So who are the thumb-twirling keyboard-bashing lovers of Twitter backing so far?
“I’m on Denman bandwagon. Denman to do what Lil O did!” says show_pony, while craigeyles says “Denman & So You Think look the best chances.” Horse_Racing_AU, points to a Betfair tipping story which is also backing the colt.
Cyberspace has apparently spoken and appears to be erring on the side of Denman, and so am I at this stage, with less than 48 hours to go. That previous form cannot be ignored, and even the rising interest in Guineas specialist Bart Cummings and Trusting, on 7.00 with IASbet, can’t sway me. Denman is 2.80 today with the same bookmaker and remains the favourite. Those odds could be smaller than my bookie’s credit limit by Saturday, so at this stage it seems good value.
Read more »Pray for rain, racing punters
October 3rd, 2009 by admin‘Won’t blame it on myself. I’ll blame it on the weatherman’. Yes turf fans, late-90s pop is my get-out clause for tomorrow thanks to the unpredictable clouds gathering over Sydney on Friday.
Mr Clangtastic remains my shout in the Metropolitan at Randwick tomorrow but he could be pulled from the race if the heavens fail to open. Trainer Marc Conners has been quoted by AAP saying he’ll wait until the last possible moment before making a decision and if the track is good or better he probably won’t be running, such is his preference for the wet.
This begs the question, if he’s not in it, who is going to come out on top? Mr Clangtastic is currently on 5.50 with Sportsbet, while Speed Gifted is current favourite on 3.60 and Ready To Lift is on 6.00 and is my second shout.
I’m not planning to go mental tomorrow though – as the week has gone on the markets for both the ten-race card at Randwick and fixtures for Flemington have become more open and there’s plenty of bookie mantraps ready to chomp your wallet down to size tomorrow.
If you must have a swing at the Epsom Handicap Rangirangdoo has held firm all week and looks reasonable on 3.00 with Sportsbet.
Time to turn back to the NRL betting markets for Friday now, and naturally plenty of cash is going to be put down tomorrow before Sunday and could alter odds slightly, but I don’t expect the head-to-head odds to change much.
Betfair has Melbourne Storm as the favourites on 1.63 and Parramatta Eels are on 2.56. I’ve already said this week that finals betting gives me the creeps, but don’t be fooled by the fact Parramatta have been on a storming run – the Storm are still the better side from the season over all and can become the team of the decade if they win.
On Sunday I’ll make you feel green at the gills by taking you through some of the great NRL upsets, just to cause uncomfortable confusion, but tipsters everywhere are going for the Storm and I’m joining them.
Tomorrow I’ll be providing you with a Randwick overview before racing gets under way – just remember to watch the skies. Turf’s up.
Read more »I’m all for a nibble on Black Piranha
September 16th, 2009 by adminTuesday is another day. It’s also the day before the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle, when our quest to pick out the Cox Plate contenders continues.
We nearly ended up with sweet FA horse racing in midweek thanks to the row between the Australian Jockeys’ Association and the Australian Racing Board regarding whip rules. Had talks on Monday not gone to plan, we could have ended up with a jockey’s strike and a very vacant-looking Pom de Turf and potentially a rather sparse-looking blog.
Anyway, the new rules, which come in on Saturday, will see use of the whip allowed seven times in total in the last 12 strides, the sequence of which will be at riders discretion. The existing penalty structure has also been ditched and a panel is being set up to determine a new one. In short, the show can go on.
Back to Newcastle and the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap is particularly interesting thanks to the presence of Black Piranha. This is the start of the Con Karakatsanis-trained horse’s campaign, with the group 1 star having already won some $1.7m in stakemoney.
The gelding has gone through two barrier trials prior to Wednesday and came second in one of them on the Broadmeadow course. As such, he’s likely to be well-prepared and you may be able to get a reasonable price on him for Wednesday because it’s his first-up race. A quick look round gives us 3.00 for the win with ISAbet – go, go, go turf lovers. Closest to this is Ahdashim on 5.00 with the same bookmaker.
So, to the Cox Plate markets now and we have 15.00 for Black Piranha with Centrebet ahead of Wednesday – possibly worth an early interest given how far Whobegotyou plummeted after his win at the weekend – he’s the current favourite with the same bookmaker on a decidedly skinny 3.50.
While we’re talking about the Cox Plate betting, a quick Melbourne Cup round-up for you as well. I promised myself I’d keep quiet, but time is ticking on fast now. C’est La Guerre is current favourite on 9.00 with Centrebet, with Vigor on the same odds and Profound Beauty and Speed Gifted on 11.00. This will no doubt all change between now and November 3, and I’ll be drip-feeding juicy morsels as the clock ticks down. Meanwhile Black Piranha is our best shot this week at biting a chunk out of the bookies. Go fish.
Miss Marielle, will you marry me?
September 8th, 2009 by adminMonday’s are not once they were. At one time they were grey, dull, and bereft of optimism. Then I took up the task of crafting Australian horse racing tips and everything changed.
The first day of the week is now defined by the weekend’s horse racing – if my shouts for the weekend have come through, Monday is not blue, it’s green with dollars and smugness.
Let’s backtrack to Friday first, when the Wyong Gold Cup kicked off the weekend at Wyong. I went with Mr Clangtastic after his trainer switched him there at short notice as the rain fell on Thursday and he came through in fine style, 3.70 third favourite with Centrebet when I pointed him out.
As a side issue, the less said about my NRL shout for the Tigers at half-time and Bulldogs at full-time on Friday, the better. Cough cough. Moving swiftly on…….
Next the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday provided the entertainment. Black Caviar was on 1.75 on Friday with Centrebet, but I urged a wad on this as she was likely to drop further. Ok, ok, so she did have one of those shaky starts of hers but she won it didn’t she? And she shrank to 1.45 with some bookmakers so no chuckling please.
Unfortunately it was a mighty tough one for her on Saturday and trainer Peter Moody has since revealed she could have sustained a injury with that dodgy start. I’m keeping my eyes on this as she looked a good shot for the Cox Plate and has already made friends with punters and hacked off the bookies with four wins in four.
There was less luck at the Makybe Diva Stakes on the same card at Flemington I’m afraid, but if I’d picked three tricky winners in a row people would be saying something was up. My shout was Heart of Dreams but outsider Vigor took the honours.
Then to the 1600m Chelmesford Stakes at Randwick – it was a tough one and O’Lonhro, the favourite, won it, with my ‘long shot’ shout Roman Emperor fifth.
But wait for it, who’s that in second? Miss Marielle, you beauty, my advice for a Friday placings bet on 6.33 with IASbet.
That’s a three out of four racing success rate for the weekend. It sounds better when I say “75 per cent”.
Tomorrow I’ll have a closer look at some of the midweek racing, and it’s about time I dipped into the tennis betting markets as the US Open hots up. Happy Monday from the Pom de Turf.
Read more »Mic Mac and Denman make it a bumper weekend
September 2nd, 2009 by adminMic Mac and Denman make it a bumper weekend
It was a bad weekend for the bookies, but a decent one for the Pom de Turf, who is starting to enjoy this tipping lark.
On Saturday anyone who took my advice on Friday of sticking a ‘reasonable wedge’ on Denman in the Golden Rose at 2.64 with Betfair will have had a heavy one, no doubt. Trouble is, now I wish I’d said ‘skipful’ instead of ‘wedge’, but that’s the way the turf cracks.
Unfortunately Phelan Ready, my advice for a slightly riskier shot, was apparently not that ready after all and came 14^th . Bombay Sling also failed to come off as an outside placings bet, ending up in seventh.
Phelan Ready later underwent a once-over from the vet but was found to be in good shape so his poor performance remains a mystery. Perhaps he reads this blog and is an Aussie Cricket fan, not wanting to miss the chance of making an Englishman look stupid after the Ashes. Or perhaps someone out there with a grudge read the tip on Friday and fed him a crate of Castlemaine. Either way, the horse will get the chance to redeem himself in the Guineas.
Thankfully the Memsie group 2 over at Caulfield provided welcome respite on the same day. Mic Mac was identified as a strong safe favourite bet by yours truly on Friday thanks to that barrier four draw. He duly delivered and his odds even lengthened to 3.00 and over with some bookies before the race.
Whobegotyou, the ‘sexier’ punt for this one, ended up in second and the placings tip, Sea Battle, again let me down.
So, a strong record so far on picking up on truly likely favourites but less impressive with the placings. I shall hunker down in the lab and work on this.
Back with the cricket and the one day internationals are off the mark on Friday and the second Twenty20 is on today at Old Trafford.
‘Old Faithful’ or ‘rain’ saved England from what could’ve been a tanning in the first Twenty20 on Sunday, and I see no reason to think today will be any different. Most amusing betting odds award goes to the idea that Ravi Bopara will be the top England batsman at 4.90 with Betfair. The internal collapse of the sun is more likely. I’ll be going for 7.60 on Paul Collingwood instead.
Read more »Bombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose
August 29th, 2009 by adminBombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose
There’s nothing like the first group 1 horse racing betting of the season to test your mettle and the market for the Golden Rose at Rosehill is already boiling and getting hotter. This means I finally have to commit to some tipping or I’ll probably turn red and sweaty like a lobster.
To recap, much noise was made earlier in the week for youngster Trusting after he won the Warwick Stakes, and he stands at 5.80 with Betfair. However, as of Friday the same bookmaker was offering a reasonable-looking 6.40 for Phelan Ready who has shortened to 5.50 with some other bookies.
Denman remains the firm favourite at 2.64 with Betfair and is backed up by a barrier four draw. Denman won the Run to the Rose and it would be a significant surprise if he didn’t at least make the top two. A reasonable wedge might well be worthwhile on him, but go for Phelan Ready on those Betfair odds if you are after something sexier.
The real cash is likely to come from the placings, and there are some decent-looking shots hovering around the 20.00 – plus odds for the win.
This translates to 8.81 for a placings punt on Bombay Sling with IASbet, who is out at 31.00 for the win with the same bookmaker. Other placings bets don’t look nearly as worthwhile.
Got it? Good. On to the Memsie group 2 over at Caulfield now and the feel of the betting almost reflects the fact attention is not so much on the winner but on the field, as many a recent Cox Plate winner has run in the Memsie. Mic Mac is way out in front at 2.60 with IASbet and has all sorts going for him – especially the barrier four draw. El Segundo is second favourite on 4.80 but Whobegotyou looks better at 5.00. If you are feeling all brave and bolshy and the approaching smell of spring has you all confident, I like the look of Sea Battle at 15.00 with IASbet. Don’t look at me if this one falls on its face though because Mic Mac is well and truly the Mr Safe for this.
The Pom De Turf will be back on Tuesday – I’ll need Monday to recover from the commiserations or celebrations. Meanwhile enjoy the return of group 1. It promises to be a sizzling spring.
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