Posts Tagged ‘Betfair’
Federer to fade?
November 28th, 2009 by adminMany years ago I wandered over to SW19 during a very hot English summer, to watch what would turn out to be the very last tennis match at Wimbledon for one Pete Sampras.
He came out onto No 2 court, looking jaded and perhaps ever so slightly confused. Why was he here, on the ‘graveyard’ court, a world champion?
He lost the match, and pretty soon after retired. Sampras was once a safe bet, someone you could lay a bit of cash down on and expect a nice little earner. He was a big gun. The equivalent of a steady racehorse that had a few years in him and then went quietly off into the wings.
Now we have Federer. Roger is a supreme tennis player. Some say he is the best ever, and they have a point. He’s blasting Sampras’ form out of the water anyway.
Tennis is a great sport to lay money down on, because you have the old-fashioned, prolonged drama of watching two people battle it out, with little human error or other unpredictability affecting the result. You study form, and bet accordingly.
Yet it is arguable that the game is becoming quite safe. Let us take a case from the past to illustrate this.
Remember Goran Ivanisevic? This player caused quite a stir a few years ago when he won Wimbledon from out of nowhere and the punters had a very big day.
Could it happen today? Well, Roger has just regained his ranking crown, you could have bet on that. Or you could bet on him winning his next ATP match in London. Betfair have him at 1.35 for that in their online tennis betting market.
Seems it is a one horse race at the moment, the real winners among us can only wait and see if we can spot the signs of Federer fading, and then bet the other way.
However, can’t see him gracing No 2 court just yet, can you?
Who will pinch the Winterbottom?
November 22nd, 2009 by adminIt’s interesting seeing which races are available when in the online betting markets – for example, the Melbourne Cup was up and running wager-wise months before the actual event took place, much as you would expect.
Saturday’s Railway Stakes was a different matter – even though it was the first main group 1 event since Cup week, the usual bookmakers didn’t open their betting on it until around Wednesday. Even Betfair and IASbet, who seem among the earliest with most races, didn’t get going on it properly until the middle of last week.
Strange then, that the Winterbottom Stakes, due to appear next Saturday, is already on the go over the web, and in some cases was up and running before bets were being processed on the Railway.
When I had a good root around on Saturday, before the Railway, you could get 4.20 for Warathas Secret at the top of the Winterbottom market at IASbet – while a number of runners who were due to feature in the Railway were in there at tempting prices.
All American, second favourite for the Railway most of the week, was on 31.00 for the Winterbottom, for example.
A point worth bearing in mind, and there will of course be more on the three-year-olds and up race at Ascot throughout the week.
Elsewhere, back with the soccer, all of the major European leagues have now passed the ten games played stage – always a good benchmark to decide who really is in and who is definitely out, when it comes to title races.
In the English Premier League betting markets, Chelsea, the current league leaders, are still the favourites, while Liverpool’s challenge is already all but dead and buried after a poor start.
Holders Manchester United have faltered of late while Arsenal have been growing slowly and steadily. Although there’s little to choose between them and United, points-wise anyway, Arsenal at the moment look like a side capable of powering through later in the season and providing some value – Betfair have them at 5.00 now and this could be the best value for a side which is not Chelsea- the Blues are far too low in many markets given how early in the season it still is.
Read more »World Cup play-off betting and Railway Stakes update
November 18th, 2009 by adminA good overview of how you might play the World cup play-off betting tonight before I do a little update on the Railway Stakes, the main racing event for Saturday at Ascot.
By 11am AEDT we will know for sure which teams will be joining the likes of Australia and New Zealand in South Africa next year and which sides face another four-year wait before they have the chance to perform on soccer’s biggest stage.
Today’s World Cup play-off second legs will define the careers of some players – Portugal have been to the World Cup on numerous occasions, but have never won it. Go out against Bosnia tonight and playmaker Deco, at 32 years of age, can probably kiss goodbye any chance of winning the most famous prize in sport.
Elvir Rahimic, the Bosnian midfielder, is 33 and his team have never made the World Cup before – if his side fail to get the required result he too faces the prospect of never playing in a World Cup.
As such the pattern of these second legs can be hard to predict because so much is at stake. Bosnia will be desperate not to concede a potentially decisive away goal, but on the other hand, have to score at some point.
In Paris, where France, leading 1-0 from the first leg, take on Ireland, the situation is a little clearer. They don’t have to score, Ireland do, and are likely to build the game from the back.
Neither team is in the finest attacking form and as such a bet on a scoreline involving less than 1.5 goals looks not too bad with Betfair’s World Cup betting market, at 3.15. Value for wins for the likes of France is likely to be poor, so, as with the first legs, scorelines and over/under goal totals could be the way to go.
Over to the Railway Stakes now, where a pot of $1 million is up for grabs at Ascot on Saturday. First of all, Kasabian, a local chance, is out of the race having developed swelling in a foreleg. Gold Salute is still on top in the betting with All American not a million miles away.
I’m afraid outside the top two or three we are seeing a complicated market at the moment, with some runners spread at around 8.00 to 10.00 and a heap on around 16.00. This could make a placings shout very tricky. More on this on Friday. In the meantime, marvel at the sound of millions of hearts breaking as the World Cup qualification process finally comes to an end.
Read more »World cup odds favour correct score bets
November 14th, 2009 by adminAlthough nothing can be decided for certain today, the teams involved in the first legs of the World Cup qualification play-offs can virtually seal their seats to South Africa.
Here’s the deal – the teams playing today all came second in their qualifying groups and so missed out on an automatic pass to the biggest show on earth – instead they have been drawn against each other to play two legs home and away, with the winners of each tie going through and the losers staying at home next summer.
Today the first legs will be played, before the second legs come around on Wednesday, with away goals counting double.
For example, today Ukraine host Greece, and should the away side pull off a 2-2 draw, then draw 1-1 with Ukraine on their home turf next Wednesday, they are through by virtue of the extra away goal in the first leg. Got it? Good. Therefore whoever can pull of a handsome win today is in a mighty fine spot.
Let’s firstly turn to Russia against Slovenia in Moscow, with the home side unlucky to have to go through a play-off at all after narrowly finishing second to Germany in their group. Guus Hiddink’s side can call on the creativity and goal power of midfielder Andrey Arshavin, and have pedigree given their strong performance at Euro 2008. As such they look good for a 2-0 win at 6.80 with Betfair.
Also on Saturday we have Ireland hosting two-times champions France. Although France are the favourites to go through over all, Ireland pulled off two impressive draws against current world champions Italy in their group. In fact Ireland were beating Italy 1-0 until a last-minute Italian equaliser in their final group match, so should not be underestimated.
This is over two legs though and I feel France can mount a decent enough defence, however, in general they have not played well throughout qualification and haven’t exactly been free-scoring. A 0-0 at 8.00 with Betfair therefore looks good for this one. More next week when the deciding legs come around.
Read more »Sandown Classic betting looks a tricky task
November 13th, 2009 by adminI’ve been waiting all week for the online horse racing betting markets for the Sandown Classic to open, and now they have, I almost wish they’d stayed shut.
Scenic Shot has emerged as a 3.50 favourite with IASbet, but behind this horse the field is tighter than a duck’s backside – four horses are between around 5.00 and 9.00, while there are some strong enough contenders at around the 11.00 to 12.00 mark.
Bearing that in mind, I had a nose round for value for Scenic Shot and found not much. Betfair is offering 3.80, which is as good as you’re going to get at the moment. Delving into the background of stayer Scenic Shot, the price seems based on a win in the Mackinnon Stakes, although it’s worth bearing in mind this was an easy victory for him.
Master O’Reilly at 5.00 with IASbet is interesting – the horse hasn’t won for two years but did well to come fourth in the Melbourne Cup and the pace on Saturday could dictate how he does. Lighting could strike three times with Zipping, who has won this race twice before, but a hat-trick is a bit too much for my probability meter to bear.
A word on the Sandown Guineas too, which is on the card just before the classic – here we have a less tempestuous field and Kidnapped is the firm favourite. 2.50 at Betfair is the best price I could find, but this is much more secure than the 3.00 – odd you’ll get for Scenic Shot in the Classic in my opinion.
Therefore I’d be inclined to lean towards Kidnapped in the Guineas and a smaller wedge on Master O’Reilly – he does look to be in very good shape, and at the end of the day, he’s got to win a bloody race sometime. This could finally be it after a dry run which stretches back to a win in the Caulfield Cup win in 2007.
On Saturday I’ll be concentrating on the soccer again – there’s a wealth of World Cup qualifying play-off games, and some interesting betting. Turf’s up.
Read more »Emirates Stakes provides a fine send-off for carnival week
November 6th, 2009 by adminFlemington has certainly seen some emotion over the last week or so. And who’d bet against another roller-coaster ride this weekend as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to and end?
The golden egg evaded me on Tuesday when Shocking won the Melbourne Cup, rather than Roman Emperor or Viewed, but all in all, I can’t complain thanks to the performance of Crime Scene, who came second in the big one, or the showing of Faint Perfume in the Crown Oaks, who will have made many punters happy on Thursday if they managed to find decent value for her.
Faint Perfume was of course trained by Bart Cummings. Generally, over the last few weeks, if a horse has won a headliner, it’s been trained by Bart Cummings, bar the Melbourne Cup. Even though he’s put a smile on my face and on the faces of many others, I’m almost fed up with talking about him – but he is unavoidable. He is, quite simply, a legend. You don’t pick up the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate and the Crown Oaks, plus a fair few others, by getting lucky.
I quite fancy that run to continue on Saturday when the fun winds down with the group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The favourite all week has been So You Think – the Cummings three-year-old who won the Cox Plate last month. IASbet offered him at 3.00 when the betting opened earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 2.90. Closest to this is Gold Salute, who is worth keeping an eye on – the same bookmaker opened this horse at 9.00 but it’s since plunged to 6.50.
As such we are forced to go hunting for value for the favourite – Betfair has him on 3.35 for the win and this is my shout as of Friday evening. Also of interest is the Patinack Farm Classic, where cult hero Apache Cat is appearing and is on 4.90 with Betfair – I’m not convinced this is that great given the hype and 3.85 for favourite All Silent looks a bit better. Depending on how your week has gone, the pain or joy is almost at an end. I’ll be back next week to tell you which one I’m feeling.
Read more »The ‘battle with Bart’ dominates Melbourne Cup betting
November 2nd, 2009 by adminTwo prevailing themes are now apparent as we enter the final hours before the biggest horse racing event of the season.
Firstly, the media build-up and the betting are being dominated by Bart Cummings – he who has trained 12 Melbourne Cup winners and dominated group 1 events this season.
Secondly, we have the emergence of five or six horses from the rest of the field. It’s a clear gap, with half a dozen runners all over the tipping columns and a distinct lack of talk about the other 18 runners in the field.
Pull up a chair, allow me to re-fill my pipe and I’ll try to take us through both of these issues before we hopefully come out with a good overview of what will happen at Flemington on Tuesday.
Firstly, dear Bart has three runners in the field and is coming in off the back of a spring where he has trained winners left, right and centre. As of Monday evening his three chances, Viewed, Allez Wonder and Roman Emperor, were the 4.80 favourite, a 31.00 shot and 8.50 third favourite respectively with Sportsbet.
Such is the anxiety over the presence of Cummings’ trio of chances that Sportsbet has developed the ‘Second Cummings’ offer – whereby if a Bart Cummings horse wins and your horse comes second you get your money back – with a $100 maximum refund.
While Allez Wonder will have to up her game considerably to pull out a win, Viewed and Roman Emperor are both genuinely likely to be there or thereabouts. As such a modest insurance wager for Viewed might be a good idea as value is likely to be poor at this stage – while Roman Emperor is looking good for something heavier at 9.60 with Betfair.
So is all the talk about Bart a little over the top? Not when you consider Viewed has already won the Caulfield Cup this year. And the Melbourne Cup last year. However, Bart’s last win in the Cup was 10 years ago in 1999 with Rogan Josh.
Still, even if you fancy Alcopop at 6.00 with Betfair, or Shocking on 11.00, do you feel comfortable not backing Bart? I don’t and will be insuring accordingly.
Outside of aforementioned Roman Emperor, Viewed, Alcopop, Shocking and Daffodil at 16.00, the field, in my view, is of limited quality. However, there are some very interesting placings bets of decent value. Jockey Glen Boss has won this race three times in a row from 2003 to 2005 on Makybe Diva and is piloting Changing of the Guard at 7.40 for the placings with Betfair. Elsewhere there’s 12.50 for promising Godolphin horse Crime Scene. And if you’ve not quite had enough of Bart, Allez Wonder is 9.80 to make the placings.
It all comes down to this. A simple battle with Bart. Turf’s up.
Read more »Melbourne Cup musings and a final Derby tipping rundown
October 30th, 2009 by adminBarely four days are left before we reach the season’s climax, and an intriguing betting market seems to suggest the 2009 Melbourne Cup will be well worth the wait.
One of the biggest stories of the last couple of days has been the condition of Efficient, the 2007 winner who had previously been a joint favourite with Alcopop. He’s now out at 10.00-plus with Betfair after it was revealed the stable is watching an old injury to his off foreleg. This might not tell the whole story – the problem has apparently been knocking about for over a year now and didn’t stop him winning the Turnbull Stakes in his last start. Therefore the drift may actually be a chance to grab a good price on a previous favourite – I’d be surprised if he didn’t run, but at the same time I’d take the drifting price without sticking my house on it.
That’s just one of a number to look out for – there’s a clutch of runners around the 20.00 mark at Betfair who I like the look of – especially Kirklees at 27.00 who has reportedly been looking very good indeed in trackwork this week.
More of course on Tuesday morning. I’ll be tracking Efficient like a hawk and making some placings shouts.
For now its back to Victoria Derby Day, where among others there is the distraction of the Myer Classic. Typhoon Tracy is the current favourite and has been all week – a small one on her might be worth it, while a placings shot on Lady Lynette looks ok, if you can find a reasonable price.
So to the main event itself, where IASbet is still listing Shamoline Warriror as the favourite at 3.20. However, Onemorenomore is now at 9.00 and falling and could be worth a go now before he possibly closes up further near the race.
Last and by no mean least, the 2500m $1.5 million group 1 run has a Pom De Turf ‘comedy dollar’ candidate. Prinsom is on a whopping 251.00 with the same bookmaker. I’ve studied his recent results carefully, and, yep, he hasn’t got a hope in hell, but it’s Derby day and anything can happen. Slightly strangely IASbet have him at a comparatively skinny 15.91 to make the placings. If I could explain that, I’d be a bookie, not a blogger. Turf’s Up.
Read more »Whobe is home from home today
October 24th, 2009 by adminUnlike plenty of other runners in today’s Cox Plate, favourite Whobegotyou has only been hanging about getting familiar with Moonee Valley for a day or two.
While other trainers were making sure their runners were given plenty of opportunity to pound the circuit and familiarise themselves with the turf that will make and break fortunes today, Whobegotyou arrived late. On Thursday he was still at Flemington, where trainer Mark Kavanagh kept him in his regular routine.
Carelessness on the part of Kavanagh? Overconfidence? Not at all. ‘Whobe’ does not need the practice at Moonee Valley. Four times he has run here, four times he has won. This place is his second home.
His jockey is Damien Oliver, who told The Age the conditions seem to do him a favour.
“He’s one of those horses that seem really comfortable here,” Oliver has said. “The track does seem to have a bit more give than most tracks, and that’s probably receptive to him.”
So in his natural environment he will make hay and leave all in his wake. A bit like me and a free buffet.
But Oliver did have a warning for those punters who are hoping for a better day than the open and carnivorous field of the Caulfield Cup last week – watch out for El Segundo, he said, who also likes the Moonee Valley wind in his hair. The Colin Little-trained veteran has also won four times here – including the 2007 Cox Plate.
Value will be your problem today no doubt – although some people drifted away from Whobe after his barrier 10 draw, there will plenty of cash heading his way on race day and anything above 3.00 could be your best bet. Betfair has had him around 3.20 in recent days.
Shop around for those placings too – as of Friday only Manhattan Rain looked particularly sensible on 6.00 each way with some bookies, but a measly 4.00-odd is the best you may get for some of the better runners with most bookmakers. Heart Of Dreams has been a reasonably-priced second favourite all week and that shouldn’t change today, go with him if you’re looking to counterbalance a wedge on Whobe. I’m off to my own comfort of the buffet. Drinks are on me if the favourite wins.
Read more »Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine
October 23rd, 2009 by adminA brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.
William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.
Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.
Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.
Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.
Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.
A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.
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