Posts Tagged ‘Mic Mac’
Manikato Stakes offers plenty of betting mysteries
September 25th, 2009 by adminThere’s a creeping sense of “they know something I don’t” this Thursday. Sometimes other horse racing punters still put me in a strop. Allow me to elaborate.
Tomorrow night it’s the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, as mentioned previously in the week. It’s a group 1 race with a strong field, not least Mic Mac, Memsie Stakes winner and all-round hot shot.
It’s also been wet at the track this week and as of Thursday it’s rated as a Dead 5. By all accounts it’s still chucking it down too. Mic Mac has a good record on such a surface, winning the Memsie on turf rated Dead.
However, it’s not him who is leading the online gambling markets – it’s Nicconi, currently on 4.40 with Mic Mac on 4.60 with IASbet.
I suppose you could point to the fact that Mic Mac’s last run was a 1600m – the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, where he was second. However, he’s never had a great problem with the 1200m – and was first in the 1200m Aurie’s Star Handicap in August on-yes, you guessed it, a dead track.
What of Nicconi? Granted this horse last won on a short 1000m on September 12 but the record book shows he’s never actually won at 1200m, so why has he edged in front? I have visions of men in dark coats around the back of stables whispering so quietly that not even Nicconi’s pointy ears can hear them.
Granted, it is a pretty open field, but if you feel Nicconi looks the better shout over Mic Mac, please spill the beans and let me know why. And don’t say you can feel it in your waters, that doesn’t wash with my cold British heart.
Besides that, I’m still cautiously going for Mic Mac on this one. But I’d keep it low. A Friday fling, if you will, before the weekend. After all about 500 stone of muscle is colliding in the AFL grand final on Saturday, and hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, will also be taking a bashing as the MCG heaves with 100,000 fans.
Meanwhile I’ll keep my eye on Mic Mac and hope to learn something on Friday night. Turf’s up.
Read more »Who will like it wet at Moonee Valley on Friday?
September 23rd, 2009 by adminFriday night is race night this week – it’s also group 1 racing, in the shape of the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, where, by all accounts, it’s been chucking it down for about seven days now. Nothing like a track covered in drink to sort the men from the boys.
Yesterday it was rated a dead 5 with the barrier 2m out round the entire circuit after 14.5mm of rainfall in the previous week. More drizzle is expected throughout the rest of this week so it’s fair to say this isn’t likely to change much.
Enough of the forecasting – what does that actually mean for the field? Trainer Greg Eurell is set to have two running in this one – Mic Mac and the older and more experienced Apache Cat.
The statistics show Mic Mac doesn’t mind a dead track – he won on ‘D’ surfaces in the Memsie Stakes and Aure’s Star Handicap. On the other hand, Apache Cat, as far as I can see, has only ever won one race on a dead-rated track – the Blamey Stakes 3U Open back in 2007.
Phelan Ready is also running and needs to do well – he was controversially scratched from the Guineas Prelude at Caulfield on Saturday following a late vet’s call – but seemed fine afterwards. He needs a good run to stay on track to appear in the Caulfield Guineas proper but to date has not claimed a win on a dead-rated track – both his wins so far have come on ‘hard’ and ‘good’.
So, some early clues from cold, hard figures in tiny tables – thanks to Racing and Sports for the history lesson and the fading eyesight. As soon as the online horse racing betting odds come thorough for this one I’ll be all over it like a rash – and an early punt on Mic Mac might be a good move.
I’m afraid I should mention cricket again. After all, the ICC Champions Trophy is off and running today as if you hadn’t had enough from the World Twenty20, The Ashes and the seven-match ODI series with England. In most markets, including Centrebet, Australia are second favourites on about 4.25.
In my view this is a tad deceptive – the squad have been away from home for some five months and have been trying to play at their highest level almost constantly for the whole of that period. It doesn’t take a genius to work out what their energy levels are like – plus they’ve only just turned up in South Africa when most of the other sides have been acclimatising for days now. Ergo 3.25 on favourites South Africa and 5.00 on third favourites India looks more promising.
Whobegotyou? He did, apparently
September 15th, 2009 by adminSometimes, with all the research, instinct, and will in the world, you just have to stick your hands up and say “that’s tough”.
Such is my mood this morning after Whobegotyou blew the opposition away and shrank his Cox Plate horse racing odds at the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
He was a length ahead of Mic Mac, who before this race had won everything he’d entered, bar one, and Singapore mare Jolie’s Shinju, who was my shout for an outside bet for the race. My call El Segundo did me the honour of finishing fifth. Thanks for nothing.
Whobegotyou was the favourite ahead of the race but few could have predicted just how strong he would be in those last 20 seconds. Impressive to say the least.
As mentioned on Friday this race normally gives strong pointers as to who is going to do well in the Cox Plate and unsurprisingly the bookmakers were quick off the mark after Whobegotyou made me look like a donkey on Saturday.
A quick look round Monday’s horse racing betting markets shows Whobegotyou on 3.50 with Betfair for the October 24 Plate, with El Segundo on 9.60. Interestingly Betfair has Jolie’s Shinju out on 17.50 for the Moonee Valey big one despite the strong showing at the weekend, so perhaps worth a small interest now?
Elsewhere Centrebet has whacked Whobegotyou down to 3.50 as well and, there you go, has Jolie’s Shinju down to 11.00. IASbet also has Whobegotyou on a skinny 3.20 and Jolie’s Shinju on 12.00 with El Segundo on the same odds.
To top off a weekend that makes last week’s 75 per cent success rate look a distant dream, Collingwood overturned Adelaide in their AFL finals week two clash thanks to John Anthony’s last-minute goal from a free kick.
That’s the way the credibility cookie crumbles. Anyway, onward to the midweek racing and I’ll be keeping an eye on the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday as another Cox Plate contender, Black Piranha, is making an appearance.
No-one said it would be easy. Onwards with belligerence, turf fans.
Read more »Cox Plate betting clues at Moonee
September 12th, 2009 by adminThe most intriguing horse racing betting market of the weekend is still the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley – which can show us the way to the Cox Plate winner if history is anything to go by.
With crucial AFL finals games also on the calendar the Pom de Turf is feeling a bit flustered with excitement. Nothing for it but to lazily stretch and stick my neck out.
Just briefly, is it just me who finds the name ‘Moonee Valley’ amusing? If anyone can enlighten me on the real (and no doubt thoroughly serious) story behind the course’s title, please feel free to leave a comment.
Anyway, first to the aforementioned $500,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, which is a group 2 1,600m affair. Like quite a few races at this time of year, its significant not just because of the strong field, but because it normally provides clues as to which horses could stand out in certain headliners later in the season. In this case, the Cox Plate.
El Segundo, appearing tomorrow, won both this race and the Plate in 2007 and has so far been looking good. As a result he’s well in the betting and is the 5.50 third favourite with Betfair.
Second favourite at the moment is Mic Mac, on 4.00 with the same bookmaker and who I discussed in depth yesterday. He’s got seven wins from eight starts but faces his toughest test yet on Saturday, and his only loss came at his only previous attempt at this distance.
Leading the betting is Whobegotyou, who is on 2.60 with the same bookmaker, has a great record on this course and is known for strong finishes at this distance. However, this price makes El Segundo’s 5.50 look like a much better shot and that’s who I’d recommend for the win. As an outside bet, the obvious candidate is Singapore star Jolie’s Shinju on 9.00 with Betfair.
On to the AFL week two finals now and on Saturday Adelaide take on Collingwood, with the former having the better recent head-to-head record for this one, and they have also had two extra days rest. However, it’s tricky to find good value – 1.76 with Betfair on Adelaide is probably your best shot.
Here’s hoping last weekend’s tipping was not just a one-off. Enjoy Saturday turf fans.
Read more »Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics
September 11th, 2009 by admin“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.
No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.
One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.
While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.
Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.
Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.
To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.
Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.
More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.
Read more »Much love for Heart of Dreams and Miss Marielle
September 5th, 2009 by adminAfter making hay with Mic Mac and Denman last weekend I can hardly wait for Saturday’s horse racing, which has no Golden Rose to whip me into a group 1 fever but does have a couple of very interesting races to make or break your morale.
I’ll get the the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington out of the way first. I say ‘out of the way’ because picking the winner is a distinctly grim task – it’s going to be Black Caviar unless there’s a gigantic upset.
The filly looks something special and has stormed to three wins in her first three starts and has been recording ‘freakish’ times. As such she’s on a recession-like 1.75 with Centrebet.
If you are quick it might actually be worth slapping a pile on this because Rostova, another promising youngster, has been scratched, according to Centrebet, and Manhattan Rain, one of the most valuable horses in Australia, is out as well after an underwhelming trial on Tuesday. Black Caviar is likely to drop further and of the other eight horses running only two are over 6.00 for a placings bet – Extra Zero at 7.50 and 51.00 for the win and Point Pain, 21.00 or a whopping 151.00 for the win.
The group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes is also at Flemington tomorrow and is much, much tighter. Typhoon Tracy is the favourite here on 2.82, followed by Predatory Pricer on 4.1 and Heart of Dreams on 5.1 – oops as I say that he’s just gone to 5.00 with Betfair so is dropping – form is strong for all three going into this one but because we’re seeing movement if I had to I’d go with Heart of Dreams now.
On to the 1600m Chemlsford Stakes at Randwick now, and O’Lonhro is the out-and-out favourite and has shrunk throughout the week to stand on 2.80 with IASbet – he has two wins and two placings from his last four and runs from barrier six. Close behind are Court Command on 4.50 and Triple Honour at 5.40, both with Betfair. This is a tricky one and I actually have a good feeling about Roman Emperor, on 12.00 with Betfair – don’t look at me like that, it’s just a ‘feeling’. Also there’s Miss Marielle on 12.00 for the win but certainly worth a little look on 6.33 for a placing with IASbet.
Mic Mac and Denman make it a bumper weekend
September 2nd, 2009 by adminMic Mac and Denman make it a bumper weekend
It was a bad weekend for the bookies, but a decent one for the Pom de Turf, who is starting to enjoy this tipping lark.
On Saturday anyone who took my advice on Friday of sticking a ‘reasonable wedge’ on Denman in the Golden Rose at 2.64 with Betfair will have had a heavy one, no doubt. Trouble is, now I wish I’d said ‘skipful’ instead of ‘wedge’, but that’s the way the turf cracks.
Unfortunately Phelan Ready, my advice for a slightly riskier shot, was apparently not that ready after all and came 14^th . Bombay Sling also failed to come off as an outside placings bet, ending up in seventh.
Phelan Ready later underwent a once-over from the vet but was found to be in good shape so his poor performance remains a mystery. Perhaps he reads this blog and is an Aussie Cricket fan, not wanting to miss the chance of making an Englishman look stupid after the Ashes. Or perhaps someone out there with a grudge read the tip on Friday and fed him a crate of Castlemaine. Either way, the horse will get the chance to redeem himself in the Guineas.
Thankfully the Memsie group 2 over at Caulfield provided welcome respite on the same day. Mic Mac was identified as a strong safe favourite bet by yours truly on Friday thanks to that barrier four draw. He duly delivered and his odds even lengthened to 3.00 and over with some bookies before the race.
Whobegotyou, the ‘sexier’ punt for this one, ended up in second and the placings tip, Sea Battle, again let me down.
So, a strong record so far on picking up on truly likely favourites but less impressive with the placings. I shall hunker down in the lab and work on this.
Back with the cricket and the one day internationals are off the mark on Friday and the second Twenty20 is on today at Old Trafford.
‘Old Faithful’ or ‘rain’ saved England from what could’ve been a tanning in the first Twenty20 on Sunday, and I see no reason to think today will be any different. Most amusing betting odds award goes to the idea that Ravi Bopara will be the top England batsman at 4.90 with Betfair. The internal collapse of the sun is more likely. I’ll be going for 7.60 on Paul Collingwood instead.
Read more »Bombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose
August 29th, 2009 by adminBombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose
There’s nothing like the first group 1 horse racing betting of the season to test your mettle and the market for the Golden Rose at Rosehill is already boiling and getting hotter. This means I finally have to commit to some tipping or I’ll probably turn red and sweaty like a lobster.
To recap, much noise was made earlier in the week for youngster Trusting after he won the Warwick Stakes, and he stands at 5.80 with Betfair. However, as of Friday the same bookmaker was offering a reasonable-looking 6.40 for Phelan Ready who has shortened to 5.50 with some other bookies.
Denman remains the firm favourite at 2.64 with Betfair and is backed up by a barrier four draw. Denman won the Run to the Rose and it would be a significant surprise if he didn’t at least make the top two. A reasonable wedge might well be worthwhile on him, but go for Phelan Ready on those Betfair odds if you are after something sexier.
The real cash is likely to come from the placings, and there are some decent-looking shots hovering around the 20.00 – plus odds for the win.
This translates to 8.81 for a placings punt on Bombay Sling with IASbet, who is out at 31.00 for the win with the same bookmaker. Other placings bets don’t look nearly as worthwhile.
Got it? Good. On to the Memsie group 2 over at Caulfield now and the feel of the betting almost reflects the fact attention is not so much on the winner but on the field, as many a recent Cox Plate winner has run in the Memsie. Mic Mac is way out in front at 2.60 with IASbet and has all sorts going for him – especially the barrier four draw. El Segundo is second favourite on 4.80 but Whobegotyou looks better at 5.00. If you are feeling all brave and bolshy and the approaching smell of spring has you all confident, I like the look of Sea Battle at 15.00 with IASbet. Don’t look at me if this one falls on its face though because Mic Mac is well and truly the Mr Safe for this.
The Pom De Turf will be back on Tuesday – I’ll need Monday to recover from the commiserations or celebrations. Meanwhile enjoy the return of group 1. It promises to be a sizzling spring.
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