Posts Tagged ‘IASbet’
Two runners stand out in Winterbottom betting
November 25th, 2009 by adminSo The Winterbottom Stakes are nearly here, and the occasion is trying its best to be anything but a one (or two) horse race.
The race is a huge $500,000 affair, not bad for a 1200m run. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but pundits are swearing blind there are two runners in the big one that could well be strolling past the line with ease.
The jockey from Melbourne, Nash Rawiller, is going to be on Lucky Secret. And the good news for him is that he has been riding the same horse for his last three wins. However, there is another secret at The Winterbottom, namely Waratah’s Secret, another great little runner, to be run by Paul Harvey, who is no slouch by any means.
Waratah’s secret is a three year old, and one that has been totally spruced up energy wise by the trainer, one David Harrison. Harrison must be aiming high. It’s all gearing up to be a great race, but what about the results? What’s the score on this?
As regards Waratah’s Secret, IASBet has the young horse on at 4.40, which is hardly something to ignore. So everyone likes the Secrets, but some bookies are tipping it the other way, so we’ll give you more bang for your buck here, and name a couple of good options for you to consider come race day.
Apache Cat has been getting some favourable press recently. While Neil Evans from Centrebet names Danny Beau as a possible player. He’s on at 8.0.
You got all of that? I know, none the wiser. But give it a go. Maybe a few safe bets will involve the spilling of some Secrets…
Read more »Who will pinch the Winterbottom?
November 22nd, 2009 by adminIt’s interesting seeing which races are available when in the online betting markets – for example, the Melbourne Cup was up and running wager-wise months before the actual event took place, much as you would expect.
Saturday’s Railway Stakes was a different matter – even though it was the first main group 1 event since Cup week, the usual bookmakers didn’t open their betting on it until around Wednesday. Even Betfair and IASbet, who seem among the earliest with most races, didn’t get going on it properly until the middle of last week.
Strange then, that the Winterbottom Stakes, due to appear next Saturday, is already on the go over the web, and in some cases was up and running before bets were being processed on the Railway.
When I had a good root around on Saturday, before the Railway, you could get 4.20 for Warathas Secret at the top of the Winterbottom market at IASbet – while a number of runners who were due to feature in the Railway were in there at tempting prices.
All American, second favourite for the Railway most of the week, was on 31.00 for the Winterbottom, for example.
A point worth bearing in mind, and there will of course be more on the three-year-olds and up race at Ascot throughout the week.
Elsewhere, back with the soccer, all of the major European leagues have now passed the ten games played stage – always a good benchmark to decide who really is in and who is definitely out, when it comes to title races.
In the English Premier League betting markets, Chelsea, the current league leaders, are still the favourites, while Liverpool’s challenge is already all but dead and buried after a poor start.
Holders Manchester United have faltered of late while Arsenal have been growing slowly and steadily. Although there’s little to choose between them and United, points-wise anyway, Arsenal at the moment look like a side capable of powering through later in the season and providing some value – Betfair have them at 5.00 now and this could be the best value for a side which is not Chelsea- the Blues are far too low in many markets given how early in the season it still is.
Read more »Odds for Railway Stakes raiders could be deceptive
November 20th, 2009 by adminWelcome to Friday. Hello, fans of the Irish soccer team. Remember what I was saying earlier in the week about so much being at stake? Painfully demonstrated by Thierry Henry’s handball – but at least if you slapped some cash on under 1.5 goals going in during normal time you had something to take the edge off. For the record, if FIFA and France agree to replay the game, I’ll eat my South Africa 2010 wall chart.
Back to the racing, and much of the attention has been on the Railway Stakes at Ascot. The track press have had little else of this level to talk about since Melbourne Cup day, so it’s not surprising I’ve now got Saturday’s $1 million race flashing before my eyes in a thousand hypey headlines.
The line-up is a mixture of Perth local runners and eastern chances, some of whom will be lining up on Saturday chiefly because they were out of luck in Sydney and Melbourne over the spring.
Among them is the week-long favourite Gold Salute, on 3.20 with IASbet, having firmed from 4.00. This isn’t great value, with plenty of runners hovering highly ominously around the 9.00 to 14.00 mark. It’s worth remembering that while in the past many horses have headed west for this race with big billings and small odds, many of them have failed.
Besides this, any one of All American, Ortensia and Grand Nirvana are in with a very strong shout indeed, and if Sniper’s Bullet can negotiate the barrier 14 draw, he’ll be a dangerous one too.
All this doesn’t help I know, but there is value for Largo Lad, at 19.00, dropping from 26.00 with IASbet, and good at the mile. Megatic at 17.00 with the same bookmaker looks reasonable.
It’s a tricky one this, but if you cast your eyes to race 2 on the card for Ascot on Saturday you will find the Carlton Mid Handicap – Thorn Dancer is well fancied here and is a paltry 1.80 with IASbet – if you can find better than that this could be a good safety net.
Back on Sunday, turf’s up folks.
Read more »Sandown Classic betting looks a tricky task
November 13th, 2009 by adminI’ve been waiting all week for the online horse racing betting markets for the Sandown Classic to open, and now they have, I almost wish they’d stayed shut.
Scenic Shot has emerged as a 3.50 favourite with IASbet, but behind this horse the field is tighter than a duck’s backside – four horses are between around 5.00 and 9.00, while there are some strong enough contenders at around the 11.00 to 12.00 mark.
Bearing that in mind, I had a nose round for value for Scenic Shot and found not much. Betfair is offering 3.80, which is as good as you’re going to get at the moment. Delving into the background of stayer Scenic Shot, the price seems based on a win in the Mackinnon Stakes, although it’s worth bearing in mind this was an easy victory for him.
Master O’Reilly at 5.00 with IASbet is interesting – the horse hasn’t won for two years but did well to come fourth in the Melbourne Cup and the pace on Saturday could dictate how he does. Lighting could strike three times with Zipping, who has won this race twice before, but a hat-trick is a bit too much for my probability meter to bear.
A word on the Sandown Guineas too, which is on the card just before the classic – here we have a less tempestuous field and Kidnapped is the firm favourite. 2.50 at Betfair is the best price I could find, but this is much more secure than the 3.00 – odd you’ll get for Scenic Shot in the Classic in my opinion.
Therefore I’d be inclined to lean towards Kidnapped in the Guineas and a smaller wedge on Master O’Reilly – he does look to be in very good shape, and at the end of the day, he’s got to win a bloody race sometime. This could finally be it after a dry run which stretches back to a win in the Caulfield Cup win in 2007.
On Saturday I’ll be concentrating on the soccer again – there’s a wealth of World Cup qualifying play-off games, and some interesting betting. Turf’s up.
Read more »Emirates Stakes provides a fine send-off for carnival week
November 6th, 2009 by adminFlemington has certainly seen some emotion over the last week or so. And who’d bet against another roller-coaster ride this weekend as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to and end?
The golden egg evaded me on Tuesday when Shocking won the Melbourne Cup, rather than Roman Emperor or Viewed, but all in all, I can’t complain thanks to the performance of Crime Scene, who came second in the big one, or the showing of Faint Perfume in the Crown Oaks, who will have made many punters happy on Thursday if they managed to find decent value for her.
Faint Perfume was of course trained by Bart Cummings. Generally, over the last few weeks, if a horse has won a headliner, it’s been trained by Bart Cummings, bar the Melbourne Cup. Even though he’s put a smile on my face and on the faces of many others, I’m almost fed up with talking about him – but he is unavoidable. He is, quite simply, a legend. You don’t pick up the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate and the Crown Oaks, plus a fair few others, by getting lucky.
I quite fancy that run to continue on Saturday when the fun winds down with the group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The favourite all week has been So You Think – the Cummings three-year-old who won the Cox Plate last month. IASbet offered him at 3.00 when the betting opened earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 2.90. Closest to this is Gold Salute, who is worth keeping an eye on – the same bookmaker opened this horse at 9.00 but it’s since plunged to 6.50.
As such we are forced to go hunting for value for the favourite – Betfair has him on 3.35 for the win and this is my shout as of Friday evening. Also of interest is the Patinack Farm Classic, where cult hero Apache Cat is appearing and is on 4.90 with Betfair – I’m not convinced this is that great given the hype and 3.85 for favourite All Silent looks a bit better. Depending on how your week has gone, the pain or joy is almost at an end. I’ll be back next week to tell you which one I’m feeling.
Read more »The Melbourne Cup by numbers
November 1st, 2009 by adminI’m reaching for the stats book again this Sunday. Granted the horse racing records at Racing and Sports don’t make for such a light piece of reading but I’ve always felt numbers can provide you with some clarity where there otherwise seems to be none.
Take 13 for example. Unlucky for some, but possibly not for Bart Cummings. The master trainer has trained 12 winners of the Melbourne Cup and is going for 13 on Tuesday. With the form he is in, do you dare bet against him? He could have six runners in Flemington’s big one, with three guaranteed a place. That’s what’s known as ‘hedging your bets’ and the great granddad of Aussie racing has Viewed in the race, a 5.50 shot with IASbet and second favourite with this bookmaker. Beware the Bartman.
Next we move to 16. The letter T has been the first letter of a Melbourne Cup winner 16 times – the most common winner’s initial. This year we have Think Money. Odds: 301.00 with IASbet. Think I’ll leave that one.
Also 1,000,000 – the amount in dollars Australian media mogul Kerry Packer supposedly had on the horse Might and Power at about 6.00 when it won in 1997. Unless you are also a ludicrously wealthy media mogul, I advise you not to bet this much on Tuesday.
Then to 68 – the weight in Kilos of the heaviest-weighted Melbourne Cup winner – Phar Lap in 1931. By comparison current favourites Viewed and Efficient are packing 58kg on Tuesday – ten kilos less.
What about 45,375? – the amount in dollars connections had to stump up yesterday by way of a final acceptance fee for the race. That’s for each horse by the way. Think training/ownership looks easy? Who cares because it’s bloody expensive.
Finally we have 78. This is the number of tears I’ll cry and the number of brandy shots I’ll sink if I don’t manage to tip at least something on Tuesday. It’s also the predicted number of abusive emails I’ll get if my current fancy Kirklees doesn’t make the placings. Overall I feel I have had a respectable spring so far. Here’s hoping Bart Cummings doesn’t pap all over it this week. Until Tuesday morning. Don’t forget to bunk off work, turf fans.
Read more »Melbourne Cup musings and a final Derby tipping rundown
October 30th, 2009 by adminBarely four days are left before we reach the season’s climax, and an intriguing betting market seems to suggest the 2009 Melbourne Cup will be well worth the wait.
One of the biggest stories of the last couple of days has been the condition of Efficient, the 2007 winner who had previously been a joint favourite with Alcopop. He’s now out at 10.00-plus with Betfair after it was revealed the stable is watching an old injury to his off foreleg. This might not tell the whole story – the problem has apparently been knocking about for over a year now and didn’t stop him winning the Turnbull Stakes in his last start. Therefore the drift may actually be a chance to grab a good price on a previous favourite – I’d be surprised if he didn’t run, but at the same time I’d take the drifting price without sticking my house on it.
That’s just one of a number to look out for – there’s a clutch of runners around the 20.00 mark at Betfair who I like the look of – especially Kirklees at 27.00 who has reportedly been looking very good indeed in trackwork this week.
More of course on Tuesday morning. I’ll be tracking Efficient like a hawk and making some placings shouts.
For now its back to Victoria Derby Day, where among others there is the distraction of the Myer Classic. Typhoon Tracy is the current favourite and has been all week – a small one on her might be worth it, while a placings shot on Lady Lynette looks ok, if you can find a reasonable price.
So to the main event itself, where IASbet is still listing Shamoline Warriror as the favourite at 3.20. However, Onemorenomore is now at 9.00 and falling and could be worth a go now before he possibly closes up further near the race.
Last and by no mean least, the 2500m $1.5 million group 1 run has a Pom De Turf ‘comedy dollar’ candidate. Prinsom is on a whopping 251.00 with the same bookmaker. I’ve studied his recent results carefully, and, yep, he hasn’t got a hope in hell, but it’s Derby day and anything can happen. Slightly strangely IASbet have him at a comparatively skinny 15.91 to make the placings. If I could explain that, I’d be a bookie, not a blogger. Turf’s Up.
Read more »Derby Day no-shows open up betting
October 28th, 2009 by adminI’m dusting off my best morning suit and getting ready to wow the ladies at this weekend’s Victoria Derby at Flemington. Tradition dictates that men wear morning suits and ladies wear black and white. Apparently there’s more jostling for position amongst the spectators than horses, to see who will appear in the society gossip columns.
Personally, I’d rather be studying the form of the horses than looking at who’s wearing what, so I was interested to hear that Moonee Valley Vase winner Hanks and Western Australian Bridgestone are both out of the race. This throws open the field for a number of ‘outsiders’ to be in with a chance of the prize money, none more so than Prinsom whose trainer Michael Templeton expects to see provide a ‘competitive performance’. Templeton is confident that with an uninterrupted run, Prinsom can work his way to the front of the field.
Favourites for the $1.5m race are the Norman Robinson Stakes winner Shamoline Warrior, plus Rockferry and Monaco Consul. IASbet places them at 2.80, 5.00 and 6.00 respectively, but I’ve got my eye on the spirited Onemorenomore and Gathering who have been given odds of 13.00 and 17.00. A bit of a bold shout I know, but I can sense an upset on this one.
Trainer John Thompson is concerned whether they will settle to run out the 2500m, but I’m confident that the two quality colts will perform well on Saturday. There’s also been a fair bit of discussion around Monaco Consul’s four week race gap, but his odds appear not to reflect this and trainer Mike Moroney is confident Consul is the right horse for the race.
I’m hopeful I will be successful this year, but whatever the outcome, the Victoria Derby is a fine race, steeped in tradition, dating back to 1855. It’ll be a grand day – I just hope the morning suit does me justice and my faith in Onemorenomore and Gathering pays off.
Fear not. I’ve not forgotten the Melbourne Cup. I’ll be providing a full breakdown on Friday, with the chief concern at the moment the potential of no less than six Bart Cummings runners in the big one. Watch this space.
Read more »Derby Day no-shows open up betting
October 28th, 2009 by adminI’m dusting off my best morning suit and getting ready to wow the ladies at this weekend’s Victoria Derby at Flemington. Tradition dictates that men wear morning suits and ladies wear black and white. Apparently there’s more jostling for position amongst the spectators than horses, to see who will appear in the society gossip columns.
Personally, I’d rather be studying the form of the horses than looking at who’s wearing what, so I was interested to hear that Moonee Valley Vase winner Hanks and Western Australian Bridgestone are both out of the race. This throws open the field for a number of ‘outsiders’ to be in with a chance of the prize money, none more so than Prinsom whose trainer Michael Templeton expects to see provide a ‘competitive performance’. Templeton is confident that with an uninterrupted run, Prinsom can work his way to the front of the field.
Favourites for the $1.5m race are the Norman Robinson Stakes winner Shamoline Warrior, plus Rockferry and Monaco Consul. IASbet places them at 2.80, 5.00 and 6.00 respectively, but I’ve got my eye on the spirited Onemorenomore and Gathering who have been given odds of 13.00 and 17.00. A bit of a bold shout I know, but I can sense an upset on this one.
Trainer John Thompson is concerned whether they will settle to run out the 2500m, but I’m confident that the two quality colts will perform well on Saturday. There’s also been a fair bit of discussion around Monaco Consul’s four week race gap, but his odds appear not to reflect this and trainer Mike Moroney is confident Consul is the right horse for the race.
I’m hopeful I will be successful this year, but whatever the outcome, the Victoria Derby is a fine race, steeped in tradition, dating back to 1855. It’ll be a grand day – I just hope the morning suit does me justice and my faith in Onemorenomore and Gathering pays off.
Fear not. I’ve not forgotten the Melbourne Cup. I’ll be providing a full breakdown on Friday, with the chief concern at the moment the potential of no less than six Bart Cummings runners in the big one. Watch this space.
Read more »Caulfield Cup ‘safeties’ take me on to Geelong and Moonee Valley
October 21st, 2009 by adminI’m heading into the Geelong Cup and the Cox Plate on a bit of a high, a small one, but a morale hump nonetheless.
Although there was no golden egg of a win for Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday, my shout Shamoline Warrior easily clinched the Norman Robinson Stakes having been priced at 3.80 favourite with IASbet.
Then the main event got under way. Although a fair bit of cash must’ve gone down the plug when Viewed bombed up the inside, I had the safety net of Roman Emperor, who I’d recommended as a placings shot at around 6.00 with many bookmakers. He ran a great race to finish as runner-up and on the final turn looked well in it and could even have pinched the whole thing were it not for a final kick from Viewed, who was on 13.00-odd with many bookmakers before the race.
As such I feel my backside has emerged from Caulfield Cup day pretty much intact after a bit of a tanning in certain events over the last couple of weeks.
Onwards to Wednesday’s Geelong Cup when stacks of horses need to win to get a decent boost up the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup.
Luca Cumani-trained Basaltico was quickly installed as the favourite for this one and the English galloper has shrunk to 6.50 with IASbet having hovered at 7.00 before the weekend. Also in the running is Godolphin stable horse Crime Scene.
For me at the moment this weekend’s main Moonee Valley event of the Cox Plate has one clear contender – current favourite Whobegotyou. He got me once earlier in the season when I advised against him in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes but paid me back with a victory in the Yalumba Stakes. He is the one to beat on Saturday and is on 2.95 with Centrebet, while Heart Of Dreams, likely to be his main challenger, is around 6.00. ‘Whobe’ hardly shrank after he drew barrier 10 for the race, so could dip further.
My mojo is back and so is my patchy confidence. Turf’s up.
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