Posts Tagged ‘Horse racing’

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Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

A brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.

William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.

Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.

Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.

Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.

Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.

A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.

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Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

Confidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.

Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.

”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.

Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.

IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.

The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.

The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.

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Rude results in the Randwick rain

Tuesday, October 6th, 2009

Well done for Randwick on Saturday – if you even got in it was apparently a result given the fact the wet weather kept the attendance indoors and disappointed crowds at the gates. By all accounts it was just like England, no doubt I would’ve felt right at home.

The poor weather pretty much reflected my luck over the weekend, on the track at least, as the Spring Champion Stakes went to Monaco Consul, not Onemorenomore, and The Metropolitan went to Speed Gifted, which no matter how much I squint and how much I try to cajole the bookies, looks nothing like Mr Clangtastic.

Another poor showing on the track after a reasonable one the weekend before. Perhaps I’m best ignored every other Saturday, but I did warn Randwick looked like a nightmare given the openness of pretty much everything which went through the barriers. At least there’s the Caulfield Guineas to look forward to on Saturday, when superstars Trusting, Denman and Manhattan Rain will be in attendance. Plenty of reason to be cheerful with that lot tacking to the track.

Thankfully the main event of the weekend, the NRL grand final, came through for me. Yesterday I nudged and winked at 3.20 for a Melbourne win by one to 12 points with IASbet, and so it came to pass as the Storm beat Parramatta by 23 points to 16. Just call me Nostradamus.

In reality it wasn’t written in stone but in the Eel’s game plan, which wasn’t its old self and was lacking the very best of fullback Jarryd Hayne, who needed to have a good day to see his side upset the odds. As a result Melbourne imposed themselves early on and were just too good to let the Eels pinch their second title in three years.

After the dust has settled it’s always worth having a cheeky peek at the NRL betting markets for next season, with Betfair saying the Eels can bounce back as favourites on 5.30 for 2010. Melbourne are just behind on 5.40 for their third title in four years.

Until next season for NRL but until tomorrow for me as I begin a frenzied and nervous build-up to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas.

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NRL betting markets refuse to move, like a fat prop

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

As the week passes by it’s clear there’s going to be little movement in the NRL betting markets ahead of the grand final on Sunday.

If you ask me, I’m not a massive finals betting fan – because anything can happen in a final, and it frequently does. Knockout ties in general are very unpredictable – just look at what happened between St Kilda and Geelong in the recent AFL grand final. St Kilda were the marginal outsiders in the betting markets but looked like a good shout thanks to their form throughout the regular season. All was looking good until the end when the Cats pinched it and put a smile back on the face of the bookies. I was one of the ones left with a face like a smacked bum.

Anyway, that said, it’s a very miserable NRL betting fan who doesn’t have at least a little wager for the grand final.

Over at Betfair we see odds of 1.64 for Melbourne and 2.52 for Parramatta. Odds for the Storm have only hovered from about 1.70 to about 1.62, while the Eels started down at about 2.20 and rose somewhat before settling at 2.52 where they look likely to stay. Nothing remarkable about any of this and to be fair they were the best odds I could find on Thursday. Worth a small tickle on Parramatta perhaps, but more on this in the run-up to the final.

There’s a whopping 10 race card at Randwick on Saturday including the aforementioned Epsom Handicap. This is where I’ll be focussing most of my attention at the weekend, especially as mother nature is threatening to intervene.

Forecasts for Sydney today say sunshine and showers on Friday followed by the possibility of a deluge on Saturday. This poses some interesting questions in particular for The Metropolitan which features Mr Clangtastic, currently on 6.50 with Sportingbet.
I’ve picked him out because he has performed for me in the past, especially in the wet, winning the Wyong Cup. Trainer Marc Conners tends to watch the skies and sends him where the rain is but it may come to him on Saturday. So I’d have a wee wedge on that 6.50 now and do a rain dance.

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Payne’s racing record speaks for itself chaps

Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Whether or not you’ve got money on El Segundo in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, you’d have to be pretty cold-hearted not to have a soft spot for him.

Piloting the 2007 Cox Plate winner is female jockey Michelle Payne – called in by trainer Colin Little due to a suspension handed to Luke Nolen.

The 24-year-old has won more than 400 races and will probably see Saturday as one of the biggest opportunities of her life. Mainly because she is a woman.

Despite her success and wealth of experience, which includes riding in England, Ireland and France, news of her scheduled appearance on Saturday is greeted with welcome surprise by the media, because, despite the progress made by the sport in recent years, Payne is still something of a rarity.

The Pom De Turf is in philosophical mood on this otherwise unremarkable Wednesday afternoon. Bear with me.

In my homeland racing is seen as a still-successful sport but one with an uncertain future – beyond the likes of the Grand National and Ladies’ Day at Ascot, racing is still associated with old men in smoky rooms by a lot of people.

To safeguard the long-term future of the sport, this has to change and female jockeys are very much part of that important pattern of change. That’s why even if El Segundo beats my tip on Saturday I won’t cry over spilt dollars.

[Removes elbow-padded jacket] Right, onto the betting for the Turnbull Stakes.

As it happens Payne says Flemington is her favourite course and she already has form with El Segundo, having piloted him to his maiden win. He’s currently on 10.00 with IASbet and will likely drop before the race – there are four horses ahead of him in the betting at the moment, but if you fancy a punt in solidarity the time is very much now.

Predatory Pricer is the current favourite, but only just, on 4.60, with Vigor right behind him on 4.80. Then comes Maldivian on 5.50. Too close to call right now and a placings bet might be more worthwhile come Friday, then again it might not, I’ll update on this later in the week.

Now I’m off to join old men in a smoky room to watch the action from Moonee Valley. Just kidding, thank god.

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Trusting could repay your faith if you are fast enough

Saturday, September 19th, 2009

Tomorrow will be very much ‘crunch time’ for a number of horses and also a nail-biter for plenty of horse racing punters, given the state of some of the odds about today, but fear not. The Pom de Turf is here to hold your hand and offer nervous words of encouragement.

Think of me as your mum telling you that injection isn’t going to hurt one bit – in reality it may sting but my words should at least stop you worrying until it’s time to roll up your sleeve/get your wallet out.

First I’m going to the Gunieas Prelude at Caulfield. The Guineas itself isn’t until October 10 but the distance of the Prelude is only 200m short of it’s big brother so it’s a reliable guide.

All eyes will be on star colts Trusting and Manhattan Rain. Unless you’ve had your head buried in concrete for the last 12 months, you should have heard of Manhattan Rain. He’s one of the most valuable horses in the Southern Hemisphere and is trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has been putting him up there with the best she’s ever seen, and she knows what she’s talking about.

Trusting already has the group 2 Warwick Stakes in the locker this season and has been looking mighty impressive. Now here’s the catch. As of Friday both horses were joint favourites with Centrebet on 4.25. Don’t ask me to call that one – but salvation is at hand – IASbet has Trusting edged ahead in the betting to 3.80 so that 4.25 for Trusting with Centrebet is my shout.

So to the group 1 1800m Underwood Stakes, also at Caulfield tomorrow, where we have Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor, plus Heart of Dreams in the running. Typhoon Tracy has drawn a pants barrier 16, and with Whobegotyou looking awesome in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday, it’s hard to look past him for the win. His odds are predictably skinny though, but 2.86 with Betfair doesn’t look so bad, so I’d go with that.

It’d be rude not to mention Saturday’s AFL tie – Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG in the last hurdle before the AFL grand final. Collingwood have much the younger team and have plenty out injured, while Geelong overturned them earlier in the season and are looking confident. Therefore Geelong are the smart move with Betfair, but 1.42 is the best they can manage – perhaps worth waiting until after the game to get some decent early final odds.

Turf’s up. Enjoy the weekend.

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Online cricket betting gives England mighty short ODI shrift

Friday, September 18th, 2009

A slight back seat for the horse racing today. I find it helps to sit and take stock on the Thursday, simply because by this point I’ve read so much track news I risk not being able to see the wood for the trees.

First today it’s over to my homeland to point and laugh at the ODI cricket series between England and Australia. The tourists are 5-0 up and take on England at Trent Bridge today for the sixth match and then again at the Riverside on Sunday for the final tie, by which time the hosts will have been put out of their misery.

The Pom de Turf can hear you chuckling. Laugh away, nothing is going to change the location of that little urn for the next two years. What is in doubt, however, is whether England can get anything at all given their poor performance at Trent Bridge on Tuesday when bad fielding cost them the match.

A tour of the online cricket betting markets throws up few surprises for these last two fixtures. Betfair is offering among the best prices for England to get anything at 2.66 which might be worth a look given England did improve on Tuesday and managed to rack up 299 runs, by far their biggest total of the series. If they can just sort the fielding out, then Nottingham might at least have something to cheer about for an evening or two.

Over at Sportingbet, they are offering you 4.25 for Andrew Strauss to get the highest batting score for England and a tempting looking 5.00 for Michael Clarke and 5.50 for Tim Paine to achieve the same marker for Australia.

Looking quickly to the track again I got quite excited when I realised the so-far impressive So You Think was making an appearance in the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday. Trained by Burt Cummings, the horse has a win and a second place so far and looks likely to head to the Caulfield Guineas next month. However, the best I could find so far is 1.70 with IASbet, if you find better than this, certainly worth a shot, methinks.

Tomorrow its the usual deluge of information ahead of Saturday and Sunday – let’s hope I get it right this time. Turf’s up.

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Underwood Stakes could be a punter’s graveyard on Saturday

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

Today much of the attention is starting to slowly swing towards the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday. This is because some of the form runners of the moment are in the betting for this one, including current Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou, plus the likes of Predatory Pricer, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor. That, my friends, is quite a line-up.

Helpfully, it distracts from the fact that my shout Black Piranha was ‘close but no cigar’ in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday, coming second to Absolutelyfabulous.

In my defence, it was the first race of the season for Black Piranha, so in my view he’s still well on track for a strong shot at the Cox Plate. At 200 metres it looked like jockey Tye Angland had to alter course somewhat, which might be what took my dignity in this one.

Anyway a few early facts on the Underwood. It’s a Caulfield, group 1 affair over over 1800m for three year-olds and up with prize money totalling $350,000.

Whobegotyou ended an 11-month losing streak with the win at the weekend and is to be reunited with jockey Michael Rodd on Saturday. Mark Kavanagh had a dilemma after that win on whether he would go straight into another race at the weekend, and appears to have decided to take the chance to match the horse up with his stablemate Maldivian in the race, who himself is a Cox Plate winner.

Elsewhere, Predatory Pricer and Whobegotyou are fighting a separate duel, having faced each other three times before – Predatory Pricer has two wins from these meetings to just the one for Whobegotyou. Sub-plots galore for this one then, and I won’t be trying to call it until Friday at the earliest. Whobegotyou has already made me look like a wally once, so I’ll be watching his odds very carefully.

The betting is already getting interesting with Whobegotyou the favourite with IASbet on 2.60 and Vigor second favourite on 6.00 with the same bookmaker, having dropped from 7.50 earlier in the week. Typhoon Tracy and Heart of Dreams are on 8.00, with Predatory Pricer looking interesting all the way out on 12.00. Made up your mind? No, neither have I.

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Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics

Friday, September 11th, 2009

“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.

No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.

One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.

While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.

Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.

Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.

To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.

Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.

More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.

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A midweek racing hunch, and narrow odds at the US Open

Wednesday, September 9th, 2009

Horse racing-wise the midweek meetings all feel a bit mundane compared to Saturday’s high jinks, but there are some good little sub-plots nonetheless.

Firstly a quick nod to Fiveoclockshadow who was last in the Cherrybrook Park Welter at Warwick Farm on Tuesday.

No, I didn’t tip him, but it was nice to see him out nonetheless after I read earlier in the week this was only his seventh start in close to three years after injury and flu problems. Trainer Nerissa Cowell, formerly of Queensland, found herself stuck in NSW in 2007 after an equine influenza outbreak so it’s nice to see Fiveoclockshadow racing again.

Elsewhere on Wednesday there’s betting to be had at Canterbury, Doomben, Belmont Park and others. At Belmont Park little-known Wanna Play Doctor has caught my eye for some reason in the 1400m Perth Racing Tv Handicap. He’s a four-year-old with two wins in his two starts to date, both at this distance, so I’d be tempted to nudge something modest on this.

Online tennis betting markets are providing plenty of interest at the moment thanks to the US Open. Odds in the women’s event are dominated by Serena Williams, who is on 1.65 for the title with Canbet, ahead of Kim Clijsters on 3.75.

The men’s event is similarly dominated by one player in the shape of Swiss Roger Federer (isn’t every tournament?) on 1.83 with the same bookmaker ahead of Andy Murray on 4.00. It’s a fair bet that Murray will have to beat Federer at some point if he is to win it and the Scot has a great record against him at six wins in eight meetings, so that 4.00 on Murray isn’t looking so bad.

Also in the running is Rafael Nadal on 9.00 with Canbet which looks tempting doesn’t it? However the Spaniard is carrying an injury and has struggled to hide the abdominal problem from the press and has hardly been talking himself up: “I am a little bit tired to talk about injuries. I am here to try my best every day.” is the best he could manage earlier this week.

Some early weekend horse racing pointers tomorrow and a nice dose of AFL and NRL crunch time info.

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