Posts Tagged ‘Crime Scene’
Crime Scene continues my impressive placings form
November 4th, 2009 by adminAs Crime Scene surged out ahead of the pack on Tuesday I could almost feel the gods whispering on my shoulder.
The 2009 Melbourne Cup, for all the pre-race claims of a relatively weak field, stirred the hearts of even the most hardened punters as Bart Cummings’ bid for a lucky 13th Cup was shot down in flames.
For about 50 metres it looked like British-based Crime Scene would steal the show. A pom. A tea-slurper. A limey. One of my very own.
I knew better though – over the course of the season I’ve been patchy at best when it comes to picking the winners but I’m frankly proud of my record when it comes to the placings.
For Crime Scene to win, the natural order would have had to be broken. My placings shouts are always coming second – when I tipped Crime Scene for a top three finish on Monday at 12.50 a friend of mine in Sydney chuckled and announced his money was on Alcopop. Clearly he doesn’t read this blog.
Manhattan Rain in the Cox Plate and Roman Emperor in the Caulfield Cup have so far showed there is method to my placings madness, which was why I was the least surprised of all when Crime Scene came storming through, got caught by Shocking, and settled into second. It was written in the wind. To complete the usual form, my winner tips of Viewed and Roman Emperor were nowhere to be seen.
There isn’t much which can knock me off my flawed high horse now, but no doubt the Crown Oaks and Emirates Stakes will do their best.
Betting for Thursday’s Crown Oaks at Flemington is being dominated by Bart Cummings again. His filly Faint Perfume is the favourite on the slightly ludicrous price of 1.65 with many bookmakers. Some may feel the big man’s luck is out after his trio of horses failed to win the cup on Tuesday, but everything here suggests only a massive shock can stand in the way of Faint Perfume. Value will be the problem and a clutch of horses sub-16.00 means even placings prices are not the best for those in with a shout.
Looking ahead to the finale of the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, and Bart is there again with Cox Plate winner So You Think likely to feature – most online horse racing markets aren’t open yet so I’ll come back to this on Friday.
Until then, enjoy the Crown Oaks and spend those Melbourne Cup winnings wisely. If you came away with a loss, don’t worry, the carnival is nearly over.
Read more »The ‘battle with Bart’ dominates Melbourne Cup betting
November 2nd, 2009 by adminTwo prevailing themes are now apparent as we enter the final hours before the biggest horse racing event of the season.
Firstly, the media build-up and the betting are being dominated by Bart Cummings – he who has trained 12 Melbourne Cup winners and dominated group 1 events this season.
Secondly, we have the emergence of five or six horses from the rest of the field. It’s a clear gap, with half a dozen runners all over the tipping columns and a distinct lack of talk about the other 18 runners in the field.
Pull up a chair, allow me to re-fill my pipe and I’ll try to take us through both of these issues before we hopefully come out with a good overview of what will happen at Flemington on Tuesday.
Firstly, dear Bart has three runners in the field and is coming in off the back of a spring where he has trained winners left, right and centre. As of Monday evening his three chances, Viewed, Allez Wonder and Roman Emperor, were the 4.80 favourite, a 31.00 shot and 8.50 third favourite respectively with Sportsbet.
Such is the anxiety over the presence of Cummings’ trio of chances that Sportsbet has developed the ‘Second Cummings’ offer – whereby if a Bart Cummings horse wins and your horse comes second you get your money back – with a $100 maximum refund.
While Allez Wonder will have to up her game considerably to pull out a win, Viewed and Roman Emperor are both genuinely likely to be there or thereabouts. As such a modest insurance wager for Viewed might be a good idea as value is likely to be poor at this stage – while Roman Emperor is looking good for something heavier at 9.60 with Betfair.
So is all the talk about Bart a little over the top? Not when you consider Viewed has already won the Caulfield Cup this year. And the Melbourne Cup last year. However, Bart’s last win in the Cup was 10 years ago in 1999 with Rogan Josh.
Still, even if you fancy Alcopop at 6.00 with Betfair, or Shocking on 11.00, do you feel comfortable not backing Bart? I don’t and will be insuring accordingly.
Outside of aforementioned Roman Emperor, Viewed, Alcopop, Shocking and Daffodil at 16.00, the field, in my view, is of limited quality. However, there are some very interesting placings bets of decent value. Jockey Glen Boss has won this race three times in a row from 2003 to 2005 on Makybe Diva and is piloting Changing of the Guard at 7.40 for the placings with Betfair. Elsewhere there’s 12.50 for promising Godolphin horse Crime Scene. And if you’ve not quite had enough of Bart, Allez Wonder is 9.80 to make the placings.
It all comes down to this. A simple battle with Bart. Turf’s up.
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