Posts Tagged ‘So You Think’
Emirates Stakes provides a fine send-off for carnival week
November 6th, 2009 by adminFlemington has certainly seen some emotion over the last week or so. And who’d bet against another roller-coaster ride this weekend as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to and end?
The golden egg evaded me on Tuesday when Shocking won the Melbourne Cup, rather than Roman Emperor or Viewed, but all in all, I can’t complain thanks to the performance of Crime Scene, who came second in the big one, or the showing of Faint Perfume in the Crown Oaks, who will have made many punters happy on Thursday if they managed to find decent value for her.
Faint Perfume was of course trained by Bart Cummings. Generally, over the last few weeks, if a horse has won a headliner, it’s been trained by Bart Cummings, bar the Melbourne Cup. Even though he’s put a smile on my face and on the faces of many others, I’m almost fed up with talking about him – but he is unavoidable. He is, quite simply, a legend. You don’t pick up the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate and the Crown Oaks, plus a fair few others, by getting lucky.
I quite fancy that run to continue on Saturday when the fun winds down with the group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The favourite all week has been So You Think – the Cummings three-year-old who won the Cox Plate last month. IASbet offered him at 3.00 when the betting opened earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 2.90. Closest to this is Gold Salute, who is worth keeping an eye on – the same bookmaker opened this horse at 9.00 but it’s since plunged to 6.50.
As such we are forced to go hunting for value for the favourite – Betfair has him on 3.35 for the win and this is my shout as of Friday evening. Also of interest is the Patinack Farm Classic, where cult hero Apache Cat is appearing and is on 4.90 with Betfair – I’m not convinced this is that great given the hype and 3.85 for favourite All Silent looks a bit better. Depending on how your week has gone, the pain or joy is almost at an end. I’ll be back next week to tell you which one I’m feeling.
Read more »Crime Scene continues my impressive placings form
November 4th, 2009 by adminAs Crime Scene surged out ahead of the pack on Tuesday I could almost feel the gods whispering on my shoulder.
The 2009 Melbourne Cup, for all the pre-race claims of a relatively weak field, stirred the hearts of even the most hardened punters as Bart Cummings’ bid for a lucky 13th Cup was shot down in flames.
For about 50 metres it looked like British-based Crime Scene would steal the show. A pom. A tea-slurper. A limey. One of my very own.
I knew better though – over the course of the season I’ve been patchy at best when it comes to picking the winners but I’m frankly proud of my record when it comes to the placings.
For Crime Scene to win, the natural order would have had to be broken. My placings shouts are always coming second – when I tipped Crime Scene for a top three finish on Monday at 12.50 a friend of mine in Sydney chuckled and announced his money was on Alcopop. Clearly he doesn’t read this blog.
Manhattan Rain in the Cox Plate and Roman Emperor in the Caulfield Cup have so far showed there is method to my placings madness, which was why I was the least surprised of all when Crime Scene came storming through, got caught by Shocking, and settled into second. It was written in the wind. To complete the usual form, my winner tips of Viewed and Roman Emperor were nowhere to be seen.
There isn’t much which can knock me off my flawed high horse now, but no doubt the Crown Oaks and Emirates Stakes will do their best.
Betting for Thursday’s Crown Oaks at Flemington is being dominated by Bart Cummings again. His filly Faint Perfume is the favourite on the slightly ludicrous price of 1.65 with many bookmakers. Some may feel the big man’s luck is out after his trio of horses failed to win the cup on Tuesday, but everything here suggests only a massive shock can stand in the way of Faint Perfume. Value will be the problem and a clutch of horses sub-16.00 means even placings prices are not the best for those in with a shout.
Looking ahead to the finale of the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, and Bart is there again with Cox Plate winner So You Think likely to feature – most online horse racing markets aren’t open yet so I’ll come back to this on Friday.
Until then, enjoy the Crown Oaks and spend those Melbourne Cup winnings wisely. If you came away with a loss, don’t worry, the carnival is nearly over.
Read more »Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron
October 8th, 2009 by adminConfidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.
Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.
”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.
Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.
IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.
The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.
The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.
Read more »Online cricket betting gives England mighty short ODI shrift
September 18th, 2009 by adminA slight back seat for the horse racing today. I find it helps to sit and take stock on the Thursday, simply because by this point I’ve read so much track news I risk not being able to see the wood for the trees.
First today it’s over to my homeland to point and laugh at the ODI cricket series between England and Australia. The tourists are 5-0 up and take on England at Trent Bridge today for the sixth match and then again at the Riverside on Sunday for the final tie, by which time the hosts will have been put out of their misery.
The Pom de Turf can hear you chuckling. Laugh away, nothing is going to change the location of that little urn for the next two years. What is in doubt, however, is whether England can get anything at all given their poor performance at Trent Bridge on Tuesday when bad fielding cost them the match.
A tour of the online cricket betting markets throws up few surprises for these last two fixtures. Betfair is offering among the best prices for England to get anything at 2.66 which might be worth a look given England did improve on Tuesday and managed to rack up 299 runs, by far their biggest total of the series. If they can just sort the fielding out, then Nottingham might at least have something to cheer about for an evening or two.
Over at Sportingbet, they are offering you 4.25 for Andrew Strauss to get the highest batting score for England and a tempting looking 5.00 for Michael Clarke and 5.50 for Tim Paine to achieve the same marker for Australia.
Looking quickly to the track again I got quite excited when I realised the so-far impressive So You Think was making an appearance in the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday. Trained by Burt Cummings, the horse has a win and a second place so far and looks likely to head to the Caulfield Guineas next month. However, the best I could find so far is 1.70 with IASbet, if you find better than this, certainly worth a shot, methinks.
Tomorrow its the usual deluge of information ahead of Saturday and Sunday – let’s hope I get it right this time. Turf’s up.
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