Posts Tagged ‘Onemorenomore’
Melbourne Cup musings and a final Derby tipping rundown
October 30th, 2009 by adminBarely four days are left before we reach the season’s climax, and an intriguing betting market seems to suggest the 2009 Melbourne Cup will be well worth the wait.
One of the biggest stories of the last couple of days has been the condition of Efficient, the 2007 winner who had previously been a joint favourite with Alcopop. He’s now out at 10.00-plus with Betfair after it was revealed the stable is watching an old injury to his off foreleg. This might not tell the whole story – the problem has apparently been knocking about for over a year now and didn’t stop him winning the Turnbull Stakes in his last start. Therefore the drift may actually be a chance to grab a good price on a previous favourite – I’d be surprised if he didn’t run, but at the same time I’d take the drifting price without sticking my house on it.
That’s just one of a number to look out for – there’s a clutch of runners around the 20.00 mark at Betfair who I like the look of – especially Kirklees at 27.00 who has reportedly been looking very good indeed in trackwork this week.
More of course on Tuesday morning. I’ll be tracking Efficient like a hawk and making some placings shouts.
For now its back to Victoria Derby Day, where among others there is the distraction of the Myer Classic. Typhoon Tracy is the current favourite and has been all week – a small one on her might be worth it, while a placings shot on Lady Lynette looks ok, if you can find a reasonable price.
So to the main event itself, where IASbet is still listing Shamoline Warriror as the favourite at 3.20. However, Onemorenomore is now at 9.00 and falling and could be worth a go now before he possibly closes up further near the race.
Last and by no mean least, the 2500m $1.5 million group 1 run has a Pom De Turf ‘comedy dollar’ candidate. Prinsom is on a whopping 251.00 with the same bookmaker. I’ve studied his recent results carefully, and, yep, he hasn’t got a hope in hell, but it’s Derby day and anything can happen. Slightly strangely IASbet have him at a comparatively skinny 15.91 to make the placings. If I could explain that, I’d be a bookie, not a blogger. Turf’s Up.
Read more »Derby Day no-shows open up betting
October 28th, 2009 by adminI’m dusting off my best morning suit and getting ready to wow the ladies at this weekend’s Victoria Derby at Flemington. Tradition dictates that men wear morning suits and ladies wear black and white. Apparently there’s more jostling for position amongst the spectators than horses, to see who will appear in the society gossip columns.
Personally, I’d rather be studying the form of the horses than looking at who’s wearing what, so I was interested to hear that Moonee Valley Vase winner Hanks and Western Australian Bridgestone are both out of the race. This throws open the field for a number of ‘outsiders’ to be in with a chance of the prize money, none more so than Prinsom whose trainer Michael Templeton expects to see provide a ‘competitive performance’. Templeton is confident that with an uninterrupted run, Prinsom can work his way to the front of the field.
Favourites for the $1.5m race are the Norman Robinson Stakes winner Shamoline Warrior, plus Rockferry and Monaco Consul. IASbet places them at 2.80, 5.00 and 6.00 respectively, but I’ve got my eye on the spirited Onemorenomore and Gathering who have been given odds of 13.00 and 17.00. A bit of a bold shout I know, but I can sense an upset on this one.
Trainer John Thompson is concerned whether they will settle to run out the 2500m, but I’m confident that the two quality colts will perform well on Saturday. There’s also been a fair bit of discussion around Monaco Consul’s four week race gap, but his odds appear not to reflect this and trainer Mike Moroney is confident Consul is the right horse for the race.
I’m hopeful I will be successful this year, but whatever the outcome, the Victoria Derby is a fine race, steeped in tradition, dating back to 1855. It’ll be a grand day – I just hope the morning suit does me justice and my faith in Onemorenomore and Gathering pays off.
Fear not. I’ve not forgotten the Melbourne Cup. I’ll be providing a full breakdown on Friday, with the chief concern at the moment the potential of no less than six Bart Cummings runners in the big one. Watch this space.
Read more »Derby Day no-shows open up betting
October 28th, 2009 by adminI’m dusting off my best morning suit and getting ready to wow the ladies at this weekend’s Victoria Derby at Flemington. Tradition dictates that men wear morning suits and ladies wear black and white. Apparently there’s more jostling for position amongst the spectators than horses, to see who will appear in the society gossip columns.
Personally, I’d rather be studying the form of the horses than looking at who’s wearing what, so I was interested to hear that Moonee Valley Vase winner Hanks and Western Australian Bridgestone are both out of the race. This throws open the field for a number of ‘outsiders’ to be in with a chance of the prize money, none more so than Prinsom whose trainer Michael Templeton expects to see provide a ‘competitive performance’. Templeton is confident that with an uninterrupted run, Prinsom can work his way to the front of the field.
Favourites for the $1.5m race are the Norman Robinson Stakes winner Shamoline Warrior, plus Rockferry and Monaco Consul. IASbet places them at 2.80, 5.00 and 6.00 respectively, but I’ve got my eye on the spirited Onemorenomore and Gathering who have been given odds of 13.00 and 17.00. A bit of a bold shout I know, but I can sense an upset on this one.
Trainer John Thompson is concerned whether they will settle to run out the 2500m, but I’m confident that the two quality colts will perform well on Saturday. There’s also been a fair bit of discussion around Monaco Consul’s four week race gap, but his odds appear not to reflect this and trainer Mike Moroney is confident Consul is the right horse for the race.
I’m hopeful I will be successful this year, but whatever the outcome, the Victoria Derby is a fine race, steeped in tradition, dating back to 1855. It’ll be a grand day – I just hope the morning suit does me justice and my faith in Onemorenomore and Gathering pays off.
Fear not. I’ve not forgotten the Melbourne Cup. I’ll be providing a full breakdown on Friday, with the chief concern at the moment the potential of no less than six Bart Cummings runners in the big one. Watch this space.
Read more »Saturday preview for (hopefully) rainy Randwick
October 3rd, 2009 by adminIt’s promising to be a spectacular spring Saturday at Randwick today. Yes, that’s right, it’s the weekend. Pleased to see me? You will be if I pick a crop of betting winners.
A quick summary for you. There are a whopping 10 races on at Randwick today, with five of them group 1. Weather is expected to be rainy following a few showers on Friday too.
Highlights include;
-The Epsom Handicap over 1600m. In here you will find one or two performers from the George Main Stakes, including winner Road To Rock and Black Piranha, second in last weekend’s race.
Last time I looked the betting for this one was very tight and generally looked ready to bite a chunk out of the backside of any passing punter. Rangirangdoo comes out as the favourite with IASbet, having dropped slightly, followed by Drumbeats on 4.80 and Road To Rock on 5.00. I’d avoid unless you know something I don’t but it may be worth a placings shot on O’Lonhro or Mr Baritone if a decent price is to be had.
-The Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m. A clear favourite here – Onemorenomore on 2.35 with IASbet. He’s taking a new path after he came third in the George Main Stakes last weekend, and is no longer off to the Caulfield Guineas but none the less looked good last time out. 2.35 or better seems sensible here.
-The Metropolitan over 2400m. Here I’d advise you to watch the weather and the track. Mr Clangtastic, on 5.50 with IASbet, likes the wet weather and a heavy track. If it’s wetter than the deep blue sea out there and your finest Wellingtons are looking brown this price looks good for him, although his trainer could have him scratched if the track is good. Also looking interesting here is Zavite for a possible placings shot, but bear in mind there’s an army of runners hovering around 14.00 to 24.00 ready to make you blush.
Good luck people. It’s very open today and I’ll be taking it easy. If it all flattens in the mud for you there’s always the NRL grand final betting markets, more on that tomorrow morning. Turf’s up.
Read more »St Kilda a tempting prospect in the AFL betting markets
September 26th, 2009 by adminSaturday has some intriguing horse racing but much of the nation’s attention will inevitably be focused on the AFL grand final. If you’re looking for a short distraction from the track before the spring really gets hectic, where better to look than the MCG?
To recap, Geelong are facing St Kilda in a winner-takes-all battle which has already seen some interesting betting patterns. Despite the fact St Kilda were the form team throughout the regular season, Geelong opened up the online markets by instantly grasping the favourites tag.
As we speak they are still on 1.65 with Betfair compared to 2.48 for St Kilda. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy are numerous. St Kilda did have a wee bit of a wobble towards the end of the conventional season, whereas Geelong were mighty impressive in their last preliminary final against Collingwood. Many therefore feel the wind is with the Cats.
If you’re going to force me to have an opinion, I’d say otherwise. Anything can happen in the final and St Kilda have been better overall throughout the season. By all accounts the weather is going to be rotten as well tomorrow, which may better suit St Kilda’s tough pressing approach. Like I said, it’s a final, so anything can happen, but I’d say St Kilda is the wiser move.
Back to the turf and we have the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick, featuring current Caulfield guineas favourite Denman. He’s only got four rivals at present in the 1400m run, although one of them is More Than Great. As such he’s on 1.45 with IASbet – which is actually looking pretty reasonable – if you can find 1.50-odd anywhere, I’d go with that, if not, take the 1.45. I actually mentioned this race earlier in the week and told you to slap something on Denman when he was up on 1.60 in some places. Pay attention.
There’s also the group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick, which is much harder to call. Racing To Win is the current favourite on 1.90 with Centrebet, but Onemorenomore is looking relatively reasonable on 4.75 and Black Piranha is 6.50. Racing To Win is going to be very hard to beat, but I don’t fancy those odds. A wee wedge on Black Piranha just for fun gets my shout.
Enjoy the (wet) weekend. Turf’s up people.
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