Posts Tagged ‘Kirklees’
Highs, lows and nearly-theres – the story so far
November 10th, 2009 by adminIt seems so long now since I was sounding out Voice Commander in the Warwick Stakes back in August – a whole season of racing has thundered by since then, and all-in-all, besides some shocks, surprises and downright screw-ups, I’m pretty happy with my work for the spring. Not bad for a pom.
As it happens Voice Commander was one of my early tipping failures after Trusting overturned him – but thankfully I bounced back with Secret Flyer in the BC3 Future Stars.
See below a summary of some of my tipping successes over the last three months – along with the odds at the time I tipped them, where I recorded them, and a ‘P’ in brackets for successful placings shouts rather than when I picked a winner.
August
Secret Flyer – BC3 Future Stars – 2.70
Glowlamp – Intergaze Maiden Plate – 1.85 (grew to 2.25)
September
Denman – Golden Rose – 2.64
Mic Mac – Memsie – 3.00
Mr Clangtastic – Wyong Gold Cup – 3.70
Black Piranha – Danehill Stakes – 1.75
Miss Marielle (P) – Chelmsford Stakes – 6.33
Denman – Stan Fox Stakes – 1.60
October
Whobegotyou – Yalumba Stakes
Shamoline Warrior – Norman Robinson Stakes – 3.80
Roman Emperor (P) – Caulfield Cup – 6.00
Manhattan Rain (P) – Cox Plate – 6.00
November
Crime Scene (P) – Melbourne Cup – 12.50
Looking back over these, it doesn’t look to bad at all – and that Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup placings hat-trick shows I got into the swing of things and hit form at the right time. Of course, besides the successes listed here, there was also a good smattering of failure – in particular I was irked at the failure of Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup -but overall I’m happy with my handiwork.
This Saturday I’ll be hoping to carry my form into the meeting at Sandown, with the online bookmakers yet to open their markets for the day. Of special interest will be the Sandown Classic, which could be tricky because a number of horses with high profiles are appearing – but will be out of their usual comfort zones distance-wise. As such there’s the chance of an upset. Markets should be open Thursday-ish – I’ll keep you posted.
Read more »The Melbourne Cup by numbers
November 1st, 2009 by adminI’m reaching for the stats book again this Sunday. Granted the horse racing records at Racing and Sports don’t make for such a light piece of reading but I’ve always felt numbers can provide you with some clarity where there otherwise seems to be none.
Take 13 for example. Unlucky for some, but possibly not for Bart Cummings. The master trainer has trained 12 winners of the Melbourne Cup and is going for 13 on Tuesday. With the form he is in, do you dare bet against him? He could have six runners in Flemington’s big one, with three guaranteed a place. That’s what’s known as ‘hedging your bets’ and the great granddad of Aussie racing has Viewed in the race, a 5.50 shot with IASbet and second favourite with this bookmaker. Beware the Bartman.
Next we move to 16. The letter T has been the first letter of a Melbourne Cup winner 16 times – the most common winner’s initial. This year we have Think Money. Odds: 301.00 with IASbet. Think I’ll leave that one.
Also 1,000,000 – the amount in dollars Australian media mogul Kerry Packer supposedly had on the horse Might and Power at about 6.00 when it won in 1997. Unless you are also a ludicrously wealthy media mogul, I advise you not to bet this much on Tuesday.
Then to 68 – the weight in Kilos of the heaviest-weighted Melbourne Cup winner – Phar Lap in 1931. By comparison current favourites Viewed and Efficient are packing 58kg on Tuesday – ten kilos less.
What about 45,375? – the amount in dollars connections had to stump up yesterday by way of a final acceptance fee for the race. That’s for each horse by the way. Think training/ownership looks easy? Who cares because it’s bloody expensive.
Finally we have 78. This is the number of tears I’ll cry and the number of brandy shots I’ll sink if I don’t manage to tip at least something on Tuesday. It’s also the predicted number of abusive emails I’ll get if my current fancy Kirklees doesn’t make the placings. Overall I feel I have had a respectable spring so far. Here’s hoping Bart Cummings doesn’t pap all over it this week. Until Tuesday morning. Don’t forget to bunk off work, turf fans.
Read more »Looking on the bright side for the Caulfield Cup
October 17th, 2009 by adminSunshine and a few clouds are likely to greet the Caulfield Cup faithful on Saturday, according to the latest weather forecast, but the ongoing uncertainty in the markets looks likely to cause a dreary end to the day for a fair few punters.
There are some chinks of light through what is the most clouded market of the spring so far. Both Cima De Trimphe and Kirklees have continued to emerge and the latter is the 9.00 joint favourite with Betfair. Cima De Triomphe is at 9.20 and Predatory Pricer is on 9.00. These three, followed closely by Daffodil at 9.60, have emerged from the fog over the last 48 hours.
I’m still sticking with Kirklees purely because of his recent form over this distance, but it doesn’t take a genius to know an awful lot can happen tomorrow.
Where there is an open field, there is also value mixed in with the uncertainty, if history has taught us anything. A look at the placings odds shows up some tempting morsels which might be worth a look. Roman Emperor, ridden by Hugh Bowman, is around 6.00 for this and Red Ruler is on 7.00 and both could be worth a small investment. If you can find reasonable value for Kirklees each way, which admittedly is unlikely, try that too.
You’d be mad not to have a little browse elsewhere as well. There are plenty of sub-plots which could potentially save your bacon and your blushes if you play your cards right. Earlier on the card before the main event is the group 3 2000m Norman Robinson Stakes where a number of horses need a result in order to kick on for the season. Shamoline Warrior, a serious contender for the Victoria Derby, is a reasonably-priced favourite with IASbet at 3.80, while Tribunal may also be worth a small look at 4.60.
It’s been a weird week, what with the Caulfield Cup barrier draw and earlier pull-outs. But there’s nothing left to do other than sit back and enjoy the ride, turf lovers.
Read more »Figures favour Kirklees in Caulfield Cup chaos
October 16th, 2009 by adminThere’s little hope of a calmer sea for the Caulfield Cup betting markets on this edgy Thursday afternoon – if anything they’ve become more unstable overnight.
To re-cap, first of all the former favourite for Saturday’s big race, Speed Gifted, was instead nudged to the Cox Plate by his connections. Then Maldivian, another big contender pulled up injured and will play no further part in the spring.
Predatory Pricer briefly took up the baton of favourite on Tuesday before the barrier draw scattered the gathering punters again, dumping some of the big contenders out wide.
Today IASbet has Daffdodil and Cima de Triomphe as the joint favourites on odds of 8.00, with Predatory Pricer, set back somewhat by his barrier 16 draw, on 8.50. Next comes Kiklees at 9.00.
If this is how it stays until Saturday, I’ll eat my hip flask. Pretty much every market is awash with blinking up and down arrows so every time I log on I think I’m seeing Christmas lights. Alas, it’s just a set of flashing icons which could spell danger for Saturday.
In search of some clarity, I’m delving into the stats. Both Cima de Triomphe and Kirklees have been attracting plenty of attention thanks to their barrier draws of 11 and seven. Kirklees, a Godolphin star, should not overly struggle with the 2400m on Saturday if recent results are to be believed.
He won the September Stakes at this distance on September 5 and all his three races of the summer were over 2000m. However, he’s been piloted by Frankie Dettori for his last seven wins on the bounce but is partnered with Kerrin McEvoy on Saturday as Dettori is down to ride at Newmarket in the UK on Saturday. McEvoy has been studying videos of Kirklees and has described him as looking “straightforward”. How Kirklees feels about McEvoy is anyone’s guess though, and its debatable whether or not the change of rider will have an effect.
Turning to Cima De Triomphe, the Luca Cumani-trained stayer has also seen plenty of 2000m-plus racing but hasn’t won since May 28, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. His last effort at this precise distance saw him 9th from 16 in the Qatar Prix DE L’Arc De Triomph, which was just over a year ago.
The more recent figures are therefore certainly pointing to Kirklees, who is on odds of 7.50 with Centrebet, but looks better at 9.00 with Betfair. There’s your answer, if there is such a thing to this ongoing conundrum.
Read more »Irish Lights and Melito shine through the pre-cup betting fog
October 15th, 2009 by adminIrish lights are shining today after the favourite lived up to her billing and clinched the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield earlier. I’m fairly pleased as well because Melito came second and ran a good race after I advised her for a placings bet if you could scrape decent value from somewhere.
Melito looked good towards the end too, ending up only a long neck behind and tantalising me with the belief that I might actually be able to successfully tip the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.
I puffed up my chest and settled into a comfort zone again before I properly examined the barrier draw for Saturday and realised everything had gone to pot again.
A number of the pre-draw favourites have drawn poorly, having only recently shuffled themselves to the top of the pecking order after it was revealed Speed Gifted will not be running on Saturday.
Depending on where you’ve been looking over the last four days you might have seen Speed Gifted, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Kirklees as the favourite for the $2.5 race. As we speak the bookies still can’t reach a consensus after Predatory Pricer drew barrier 16.
IASbet has Daffodil as the favourite on odds of 8.00 after a barrier four draw, with Kirklees, Cima De Triomphe and Predatory Pricer all tied on 8.50. I think that’s what’s known as ‘open’.
Over at Centrebet the current favourite is Kirklees on 7.50, while Daffodil is out on 11.00 here. Predatory Pricer is at 8.50, and just to rub salt into the wound there’s the ominous duo of Vigor and Allez Wonder, both on 10.00.
Clear as mud then. There are a couple of days left for this madness to settle but it’s fair to say it’s a mighty tough call.
I’ve heard one or two whispers online for Cima De Triomphe, but at this stage everyone is left looking at each other wondering what the hell just happened. Tomorrow and Friday I’ll be delving into the stats book in search of answers. Until then.
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