Posts Tagged ‘predatory pricer’
Looking on the bright side for the Caulfield Cup
October 17th, 2009 by adminSunshine and a few clouds are likely to greet the Caulfield Cup faithful on Saturday, according to the latest weather forecast, but the ongoing uncertainty in the markets looks likely to cause a dreary end to the day for a fair few punters.
There are some chinks of light through what is the most clouded market of the spring so far. Both Cima De Trimphe and Kirklees have continued to emerge and the latter is the 9.00 joint favourite with Betfair. Cima De Triomphe is at 9.20 and Predatory Pricer is on 9.00. These three, followed closely by Daffodil at 9.60, have emerged from the fog over the last 48 hours.
I’m still sticking with Kirklees purely because of his recent form over this distance, but it doesn’t take a genius to know an awful lot can happen tomorrow.
Where there is an open field, there is also value mixed in with the uncertainty, if history has taught us anything. A look at the placings odds shows up some tempting morsels which might be worth a look. Roman Emperor, ridden by Hugh Bowman, is around 6.00 for this and Red Ruler is on 7.00 and both could be worth a small investment. If you can find reasonable value for Kirklees each way, which admittedly is unlikely, try that too.
You’d be mad not to have a little browse elsewhere as well. There are plenty of sub-plots which could potentially save your bacon and your blushes if you play your cards right. Earlier on the card before the main event is the group 3 2000m Norman Robinson Stakes where a number of horses need a result in order to kick on for the season. Shamoline Warrior, a serious contender for the Victoria Derby, is a reasonably-priced favourite with IASbet at 3.80, while Tribunal may also be worth a small look at 4.60.
It’s been a weird week, what with the Caulfield Cup barrier draw and earlier pull-outs. But there’s nothing left to do other than sit back and enjoy the ride, turf lovers.
Read more »Irish Lights and Melito shine through the pre-cup betting fog
October 15th, 2009 by adminIrish lights are shining today after the favourite lived up to her billing and clinched the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield earlier. I’m fairly pleased as well because Melito came second and ran a good race after I advised her for a placings bet if you could scrape decent value from somewhere.
Melito looked good towards the end too, ending up only a long neck behind and tantalising me with the belief that I might actually be able to successfully tip the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.
I puffed up my chest and settled into a comfort zone again before I properly examined the barrier draw for Saturday and realised everything had gone to pot again.
A number of the pre-draw favourites have drawn poorly, having only recently shuffled themselves to the top of the pecking order after it was revealed Speed Gifted will not be running on Saturday.
Depending on where you’ve been looking over the last four days you might have seen Speed Gifted, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Kirklees as the favourite for the $2.5 race. As we speak the bookies still can’t reach a consensus after Predatory Pricer drew barrier 16.
IASbet has Daffodil as the favourite on odds of 8.00 after a barrier four draw, with Kirklees, Cima De Triomphe and Predatory Pricer all tied on 8.50. I think that’s what’s known as ‘open’.
Over at Centrebet the current favourite is Kirklees on 7.50, while Daffodil is out on 11.00 here. Predatory Pricer is at 8.50, and just to rub salt into the wound there’s the ominous duo of Vigor and Allez Wonder, both on 10.00.
Clear as mud then. There are a couple of days left for this madness to settle but it’s fair to say it’s a mighty tough call.
I’ve heard one or two whispers online for Cima De Triomphe, but at this stage everyone is left looking at each other wondering what the hell just happened. Tomorrow and Friday I’ll be delving into the stats book in search of answers. Until then.
Read more »Pull-outs blow open the Caulfield Cup betting markets
October 14th, 2009 by adminWhen galloper Predatory Pricer got up off his considerable backside this morning and blinked open his big brown eyes, he was at best third favourite in the betting markets for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
By the time he’d relieved himself, been led out the stable and had a little run out, he was heading for the top of the betting after Speed Gifted was dropped out of the 2400m race to instead head off to the Cox Plate in the direction of the Melbourne Cup.
Punters keen on the half brother of Takeover Target will be hoping the bookmakers’ crown does not lie too heavy. He seemed to stubbornly wheel away in the wrong direction at one point this morning and didn’t look terribly chuffed to be up and out on the grass, but then again neither would I at that time of day. Jockey Steven King told the Herald Sun: “His form’s been outstanding even though he’s doing a lot wrong”. Outstanding and imperfect, much like me.
You can currently get 7.60 for him at Betfair, ahead of Vigor on 8.00, with the two joint favourites in other markets. Next in line is Cima De Triomphe at 9.00 and Daffodil completes the top pack at 13.00.
Ergo, Saturday is becoming a bit of a bear trap, but Vigor and Predatory Pricer do at least look in the right place at the top of the tree. More on his throughout the week.
Back to tomorrow’s diversion of the Thousand Guineas now. Irish Lights is still way out in front at 2.55 but Melito, trained by Gerald Ryan, is perhaps a bit on the high side at 10.00 in some markets earlier this week, now at 8.00 with Centrebet.
Betfair has her at a better 9.00 though, and she attracted a spike in punters cash with the bookmaker when easing up to 10.00 earlier in the week. She looks like more fun than a punt on Irish Lights if you are after something a bit more sexy, but if you’d rather play it safe with Melito go with a placings if you can find decent value.
Tomorrow’s race can act as a wind test for Saturday. Hopefully it’s blowing in my favour for what could be a gripping Caulfield Cup. Turf’s up.
Read more »Payne’s racing record speaks for itself chaps
October 1st, 2009 by adminWhether or not you’ve got money on El Segundo in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, you’d have to be pretty cold-hearted not to have a soft spot for him.
Piloting the 2007 Cox Plate winner is female jockey Michelle Payne – called in by trainer Colin Little due to a suspension handed to Luke Nolen.
The 24-year-old has won more than 400 races and will probably see Saturday as one of the biggest opportunities of her life. Mainly because she is a woman.
Despite her success and wealth of experience, which includes riding in England, Ireland and France, news of her scheduled appearance on Saturday is greeted with welcome surprise by the media, because, despite the progress made by the sport in recent years, Payne is still something of a rarity.
The Pom De Turf is in philosophical mood on this otherwise unremarkable Wednesday afternoon. Bear with me.
In my homeland racing is seen as a still-successful sport but one with an uncertain future – beyond the likes of the Grand National and Ladies’ Day at Ascot, racing is still associated with old men in smoky rooms by a lot of people.
To safeguard the long-term future of the sport, this has to change and female jockeys are very much part of that important pattern of change. That’s why even if El Segundo beats my tip on Saturday I won’t cry over spilt dollars.
[Removes elbow-padded jacket] Right, onto the betting for the Turnbull Stakes.
As it happens Payne says Flemington is her favourite course and she already has form with El Segundo, having piloted him to his maiden win. He’s currently on 10.00 with IASbet and will likely drop before the race – there are four horses ahead of him in the betting at the moment, but if you fancy a punt in solidarity the time is very much now.
Predatory Pricer is the current favourite, but only just, on 4.60, with Vigor right behind him on 4.80. Then comes Maldivian on 5.50. Too close to call right now and a placings bet might be more worthwhile come Friday, then again it might not, I’ll update on this later in the week.
Now I’m off to join old men in a smoky room to watch the action from Moonee Valley. Just kidding, thank god.
Read more »Underwood Stakes could be a punter’s graveyard on Saturday
September 17th, 2009 by adminToday much of the attention is starting to slowly swing towards the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday. This is because some of the form runners of the moment are in the betting for this one, including current Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou, plus the likes of Predatory Pricer, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor. That, my friends, is quite a line-up.
Helpfully, it distracts from the fact that my shout Black Piranha was ‘close but no cigar’ in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday, coming second to Absolutelyfabulous.
In my defence, it was the first race of the season for Black Piranha, so in my view he’s still well on track for a strong shot at the Cox Plate. At 200 metres it looked like jockey Tye Angland had to alter course somewhat, which might be what took my dignity in this one.
Anyway a few early facts on the Underwood. It’s a Caulfield, group 1 affair over over 1800m for three year-olds and up with prize money totalling $350,000.
Whobegotyou ended an 11-month losing streak with the win at the weekend and is to be reunited with jockey Michael Rodd on Saturday. Mark Kavanagh had a dilemma after that win on whether he would go straight into another race at the weekend, and appears to have decided to take the chance to match the horse up with his stablemate Maldivian in the race, who himself is a Cox Plate winner.
Elsewhere, Predatory Pricer and Whobegotyou are fighting a separate duel, having faced each other three times before – Predatory Pricer has two wins from these meetings to just the one for Whobegotyou. Sub-plots galore for this one then, and I won’t be trying to call it until Friday at the earliest. Whobegotyou has already made me look like a wally once, so I’ll be watching his odds very carefully.
The betting is already getting interesting with Whobegotyou the favourite with IASbet on 2.60 and Vigor second favourite on 6.00 with the same bookmaker, having dropped from 7.50 earlier in the week. Typhoon Tracy and Heart of Dreams are on 8.00, with Predatory Pricer looking interesting all the way out on 12.00. Made up your mind? No, neither have I.
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