Posts Tagged ‘Gai Waterhouse’

Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

A brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.

William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.

Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.

Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.

Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.

Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.

A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.

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The wait is over and Denman looks ready to justify Caulfield Guineas odds

Sunday, October 11th, 2009

Today it won’t matter one bit what I’ve been prattling on about on here – at the end of the day once the tape goes up in the Caulfield Guineas we’re all on our own, a sea of well-dressed chancers grasping our betting slips in the crisp and cutting spring air.

I’m guessing that the last thing going through the mind of jockey Kerrin McEvoy as he stares at the Caulfield track between Denman’s ears is what the Pom de Turf is going to write on Monday morning if the pair of them have an off day.

For what it’s worth, I won’t be happy though. Form, tipping chatter and the bookies are all pointing towards the Peter Snowden-trained star and finding value might be your only problem today.

The last time I checked Betfair were among the few bookies prepared to offer you a little over the 2.70 to 2.80 mark for Denman. If your bowels are telling you not to follow the crowd then my personal recommendation would be Manhattan Rain, who has been knocking around a very tempting 6.50 to 7.00 all week and who is due a performance which truly fulfils his considerable potential.

By all accounts he has also looked truly sharp this week, with Gai Waterhouse declaring “it will be a great race on Saturday with the best colts in Australia coming together but I really believe I have the horse to win my first Caulfield Guineas”, so he’s your horse if you fancy living a little more dangerously, but I’m sticking my neck out with Denman.

Elsewhere today there’s plenty of adequate distraction from the Guineas in the shape of the Toorak Handicap and the Yalumba Stakes, among others. The latter could see a very tight contest between Heart Of Dreams and Whobegotyou, and simply because he did me earlier in the season I’m going with Whobegotyou. I feel like he owes me one.

Other than that my advice is simply this; relax and enjoy the thunder of hooves which means the best of the season’s group 1 racing has begun.

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Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

Confidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.

Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.

”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.

Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.

IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.

The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.

The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.

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Trusting could repay your faith if you are fast enough

Saturday, September 19th, 2009

Tomorrow will be very much ‘crunch time’ for a number of horses and also a nail-biter for plenty of horse racing punters, given the state of some of the odds about today, but fear not. The Pom de Turf is here to hold your hand and offer nervous words of encouragement.

Think of me as your mum telling you that injection isn’t going to hurt one bit – in reality it may sting but my words should at least stop you worrying until it’s time to roll up your sleeve/get your wallet out.

First I’m going to the Gunieas Prelude at Caulfield. The Guineas itself isn’t until October 10 but the distance of the Prelude is only 200m short of it’s big brother so it’s a reliable guide.

All eyes will be on star colts Trusting and Manhattan Rain. Unless you’ve had your head buried in concrete for the last 12 months, you should have heard of Manhattan Rain. He’s one of the most valuable horses in the Southern Hemisphere and is trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has been putting him up there with the best she’s ever seen, and she knows what she’s talking about.

Trusting already has the group 2 Warwick Stakes in the locker this season and has been looking mighty impressive. Now here’s the catch. As of Friday both horses were joint favourites with Centrebet on 4.25. Don’t ask me to call that one – but salvation is at hand – IASbet has Trusting edged ahead in the betting to 3.80 so that 4.25 for Trusting with Centrebet is my shout.

So to the group 1 1800m Underwood Stakes, also at Caulfield tomorrow, where we have Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor, plus Heart of Dreams in the running. Typhoon Tracy has drawn a pants barrier 16, and with Whobegotyou looking awesome in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday, it’s hard to look past him for the win. His odds are predictably skinny though, but 2.86 with Betfair doesn’t look so bad, so I’d go with that.

It’d be rude not to mention Saturday’s AFL tie – Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG in the last hurdle before the AFL grand final. Collingwood have much the younger team and have plenty out injured, while Geelong overturned them earlier in the season and are looking confident. Therefore Geelong are the smart move with Betfair, but 1.42 is the best they can manage – perhaps worth waiting until after the game to get some decent early final odds.

Turf’s up. Enjoy the weekend.

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Black Caviar today. The horse, not the sturgeon eggs. Saturday wasn’t that successful.

Thursday, September 3rd, 2009

Besides tipping who is going to win races, I’ve recently been trying to pick up on who is not going to make the grade. Unsurprisingly deciding which bets are likely to fall flat is easier, but there is at least some brainpower needed.

For example it would’ve been easy to plump for Trusting in the Golden Rose on Saturday given his previous win in the Warwick Stakes – and with many bookies he was joint second favourite on about 5.80 on Thursday and Friday. I decided to steer clear because one Warwick Stakes win does not a Golden Rose winner make and the coverage of Trusting had smelled partly of pure hype the week before. Hence I went with Denman as a safer bet.

The point I’m trying to make is it may seem risky to call an avoid on a horse who appears to be attracting plenty of attention and plaudits, but there is method to my madness.

On Saturday we have the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington and Manhattan Rain, trained by Gai Waterhouse and known as one of the most valuable horses this side of the Danube, will be appearing. Given his touted worth of $20 million you’d think he’d be a wise move for Saturday but the midweek reports suggest otherwise.

Today the press has been awash with the news he didn’t fare that well in a four-horse 800m trial on Tuesday and will have blinkers on Saturday.

“It was a bit like ‘Well, here I am’,” is how Gail Waterhouse described his performance in the Sydney Morning Herald. I know just how he feels. Anyway, early doors he may be among the favourites but this race also involves filly Black Caviar, as yet unbeaten, while Grand Harmony was the winner of Tuesday’s trial and lead all the way to win at Seymour last month.

While I’ve got your attention it’s worth taking a look at how Saturday’s result in the Golden Rose has affected Denman’s odds for the season’s main events. He is now at 17.00 for the Cox Plate with IASbet, ahead of the aforementioned Black Caviar, who is on 21.00 for the Plate – possibly worth a shot now before what could be a good performance from the filly on Saturday?

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