Posts Tagged ‘IASbet’
Figures favour Kirklees in Caulfield Cup chaos
October 16th, 2009 by adminThere’s little hope of a calmer sea for the Caulfield Cup betting markets on this edgy Thursday afternoon – if anything they’ve become more unstable overnight.
To re-cap, first of all the former favourite for Saturday’s big race, Speed Gifted, was instead nudged to the Cox Plate by his connections. Then Maldivian, another big contender pulled up injured and will play no further part in the spring.
Predatory Pricer briefly took up the baton of favourite on Tuesday before the barrier draw scattered the gathering punters again, dumping some of the big contenders out wide.
Today IASbet has Daffdodil and Cima de Triomphe as the joint favourites on odds of 8.00, with Predatory Pricer, set back somewhat by his barrier 16 draw, on 8.50. Next comes Kiklees at 9.00.
If this is how it stays until Saturday, I’ll eat my hip flask. Pretty much every market is awash with blinking up and down arrows so every time I log on I think I’m seeing Christmas lights. Alas, it’s just a set of flashing icons which could spell danger for Saturday.
In search of some clarity, I’m delving into the stats. Both Cima de Triomphe and Kirklees have been attracting plenty of attention thanks to their barrier draws of 11 and seven. Kirklees, a Godolphin star, should not overly struggle with the 2400m on Saturday if recent results are to be believed.
He won the September Stakes at this distance on September 5 and all his three races of the summer were over 2000m. However, he’s been piloted by Frankie Dettori for his last seven wins on the bounce but is partnered with Kerrin McEvoy on Saturday as Dettori is down to ride at Newmarket in the UK on Saturday. McEvoy has been studying videos of Kirklees and has described him as looking “straightforward”. How Kirklees feels about McEvoy is anyone’s guess though, and its debatable whether or not the change of rider will have an effect.
Turning to Cima De Triomphe, the Luca Cumani-trained stayer has also seen plenty of 2000m-plus racing but hasn’t won since May 28, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. His last effort at this precise distance saw him 9th from 16 in the Qatar Prix DE L’Arc De Triomph, which was just over a year ago.
The more recent figures are therefore certainly pointing to Kirklees, who is on odds of 7.50 with Centrebet, but looks better at 9.00 with Betfair. There’s your answer, if there is such a thing to this ongoing conundrum.
Read more »Irish Lights and Melito shine through the pre-cup betting fog
October 15th, 2009 by adminIrish lights are shining today after the favourite lived up to her billing and clinched the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield earlier. I’m fairly pleased as well because Melito came second and ran a good race after I advised her for a placings bet if you could scrape decent value from somewhere.
Melito looked good towards the end too, ending up only a long neck behind and tantalising me with the belief that I might actually be able to successfully tip the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.
I puffed up my chest and settled into a comfort zone again before I properly examined the barrier draw for Saturday and realised everything had gone to pot again.
A number of the pre-draw favourites have drawn poorly, having only recently shuffled themselves to the top of the pecking order after it was revealed Speed Gifted will not be running on Saturday.
Depending on where you’ve been looking over the last four days you might have seen Speed Gifted, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Kirklees as the favourite for the $2.5 race. As we speak the bookies still can’t reach a consensus after Predatory Pricer drew barrier 16.
IASbet has Daffodil as the favourite on odds of 8.00 after a barrier four draw, with Kirklees, Cima De Triomphe and Predatory Pricer all tied on 8.50. I think that’s what’s known as ‘open’.
Over at Centrebet the current favourite is Kirklees on 7.50, while Daffodil is out on 11.00 here. Predatory Pricer is at 8.50, and just to rub salt into the wound there’s the ominous duo of Vigor and Allez Wonder, both on 10.00.
Clear as mud then. There are a couple of days left for this madness to settle but it’s fair to say it’s a mighty tough call.
I’ve heard one or two whispers online for Cima De Triomphe, but at this stage everyone is left looking at each other wondering what the hell just happened. Tomorrow and Friday I’ll be delving into the stats book in search of answers. Until then.
Read more »The week ahead, including a World Cup betting blast
October 13th, 2009 by adminIt’s Sunday and whether or not you had any luck at Caulfield yesterday, there’s no time to waste; the racing is coming thick and fast now.
Wednesday sees Australia’s top fillies line up for the Thousand Guineas, again at Caulfield, with Irish lights leading the betting, on 3.00 with IASbet. On to Saturday and we’re at Caulfield again for the Caulfield Cup, where Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is the current favourite, on odds of 5.00 with Centrebet.
As with the Thousand Guineas, I’ll be spending the next few days picking through the hype and gripes surrounding these two races in the hope of steering you in the right direction.
As it’s Sunday today, however, I decided it was time for some light reading in the shape of a scan around the soccer betting markets for World Cup 2010.
Next year’s tournament is in South Africa and a number of big names have already qualified with room to spare, this includes Brazil, who have already won it five times in the past, and Spain, who dazzled with their passing game in winning Euro 2008.
England have also already qualified, as of course have Australia. Also already in the mix are Holland, who had a decent showing themselves at Euro 2008 before being surprisingly knocked out by Russia.
Pretty much everywhere you look at this early stage you find Spain and Brazil rightly out in front. Both have a very good chance next year, with Brazil winning the warm-up Confederations Cup in South Africa early this year. They are on 5.50, level with Spain, at IASbet, for next year.
Bafflingly, behind these two, come England as the 7.00 third favourites. Granted, they did have a good qualification campaign but their win against Croatia to seal the deal last month was against an under-strength side lacking the talents of Luca Modric. As such they have not faced a true test in a competitive match for a while and it’s bizarre that they are rated as more likely to win than Holland, on 12.00 with the same bookmaker.
A word for Russia here. Ok, they do have the odd strange performance but going forward they can be exhilarating and they were unlucky to go out to Spain in the Euro 2008 semi-finals after a very good tournament which saw them beat Holland. 26.00 therefore looks good for them at this stage with IASbet.
Until tomorrow, when I’ll be counting the mental cost of the weekend’s racing.
Read more »Twitter users pitch in with their Guineas betting twopence
October 9th, 2009 by adminTwitter might not be the best place to go hunting for Caulfield Guineas betting tips, but given the build-up to Saturday’s race is getting ever broader, it’s a welcome distraction from some of the predictable waffling coming from some sections of the media.
The main problem with this social media phenomenon is justification. 140 characters is barely enough to say what is happening, or to say what you think is going to happen, let alone say why it’s happening or why you think it’s likely to happen.
Take the following example;
Pom_De_Turf Trust me, turf lovers, Denman is the hottest prospect for the Caulfield Guineas betting on Saturday, he’s currently on odds of 2.80 (IASbet)
(140 characters)
There’s about enough room to squeeze in his odds, his name, the bookie, the race, the location, but as for saying why you think he’s in with a shout, forget it. Therefore taking your tweet as a tip is almost as much of a gamble as going in blind.
Of course, one hopes for a link in a tweet, taking the user to a long, detailed and almost scientific breakdown of why Denman is going to make you rich come booze-up time on Saturday, but ‘I think this nag is a cert’ often has to suffice.
So who are the thumb-twirling keyboard-bashing lovers of Twitter backing so far?
“I’m on Denman bandwagon. Denman to do what Lil O did!” says show_pony, while craigeyles says “Denman & So You Think look the best chances.” Horse_Racing_AU, points to a Betfair tipping story which is also backing the colt.
Cyberspace has apparently spoken and appears to be erring on the side of Denman, and so am I at this stage, with less than 48 hours to go. That previous form cannot be ignored, and even the rising interest in Guineas specialist Bart Cummings and Trusting, on 7.00 with IASbet, can’t sway me. Denman is 2.80 today with the same bookmaker and remains the favourite. Those odds could be smaller than my bookie’s credit limit by Saturday, so at this stage it seems good value.
Read more »Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron
October 8th, 2009 by adminConfidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.
Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.
”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.
Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.
IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.
The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.
The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.
Read more »The Caulfield Guineas for dummies
October 7th, 2009 by adminToday’s post begins the countdown in earnest to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas by guiding the numskulls and novices among us through what will happen on Saturday. I like to call it ‘The Caulfield Guineas for Poms, Plonkers and Pre-Post Punters’. Listen carefully, lest you end up still in the second category come race day.
In latest developments the barrier draw went off on Tuesday and saw Denman and Trusting drew seven and ten respectively, which did nothing to alter their position at the top of the online horse racing markets.
There’s some minor variation out there at this still relatively early stage. Betfair has got Denman on 2.82, with Trusting on 4.70. Over at IASbet the same pair are on odds of 2.70 and 4.80 respectively.
There are two others which are well in the mix – Manhattan Rain, on 6.80 and So You Think on 8.80, both with Betfair, and after this the closest chance is Starspangledbanner on 14.50.
1600m is the distance and the prize pot is a cool $1 million, but the Guineas is about much more than cash, despite what its name might suggest to the layman. It’s an Australian horse racing event which dates back to 1881 and which actually drew its influence from England, namely the 2,000 Guineas Classic, which also means set weights – a rarity in Australian thoroughbred racing. The first-ever winner was Wheatear and it’s been run every year since, with Whobegotyou claiming the glory last year.
So much attention is focussed on Trusting and Denman because they are widely seen as two of the brightest colts in Australian racing, and both are in fine form; Denman will make it seven wins in a row if he wins on Saturday.
Unless you’ve been in a bunker filled with jelly for the last six months, you should also know it’s the first truly major group 1 event of the spring and as such can be a useful guide for those wondering how the runners will do throughout the rest of the campaign.
I’ll be watching the build-up like a hawk and bringing you all the market movements throughout the week, brandy in hand, cash in a tight fist, which may only get tighter as the days tick by. We shall see.
Read more »NRL betting still favours a gathering Storm
October 4th, 2009 by adminAttention turns away from the track today for all but the most dedicated of turf fans. NRL grand final day is upon us, and we have a clear favourite in Melbourne Storm, who have been leading in the NRL betting markets all week.
As I said on Friday, every tipster under the sun has been going for the Storm over the Eels, and I see no reason to scream otherwise. Shopping around finds you 1.58 for Melbourne to 2.40 for The Eels with IASbet, and 3.20 for a Melbourne win by one to 12 points looks reasonable with the same bookmaker.
Anything can happen on finals day however, and for amusement only here are some classic NRL grand final upsets and nailbiters from over the years;
-Penrith Panthers 18 Sydney Roosters 6; 2003
Penrith shocked perhaps even themselves by getting two early tries to gain control of the game before a heroic defensive display saw them upset the odds and hold out for a win.
-Newcastle Knights 22 Manly 16; 1997
Underdogs Newcastle won the match at the death thanks to a try from winger Darren Albert. They’d unexpectedly started the game strongly but faced a Manly fightback and were behind for the majority of the game before late heroics.
Canberra 19 Balmain 14; 1989
Balmain led 12-2 at half-time and enjoyed the rub of the green before it came back at them in the second half in every sense. Steve Jackson scored the crucial final try for Canberra and wrote the game into the history books.
Still feeling confident? No? This is the problem with finals – the gods often come down and lend a hand. One thing is clear about today though – the result will depend on how Melbourne handle Eels fullback Jarryd Hayne, a nimble giant of a man who could pinch it from them if he’s even allowed a sniff of a half-decent day.
Enjoy the chaos from Sydney. Tomorrow I’ll be doing my usual round-up of the weekend and starting a monster build-up week for the Caulfield Guineas.
Read more »Saturday preview for (hopefully) rainy Randwick
October 3rd, 2009 by adminIt’s promising to be a spectacular spring Saturday at Randwick today. Yes, that’s right, it’s the weekend. Pleased to see me? You will be if I pick a crop of betting winners.
A quick summary for you. There are a whopping 10 races on at Randwick today, with five of them group 1. Weather is expected to be rainy following a few showers on Friday too.
Highlights include;
-The Epsom Handicap over 1600m. In here you will find one or two performers from the George Main Stakes, including winner Road To Rock and Black Piranha, second in last weekend’s race.
Last time I looked the betting for this one was very tight and generally looked ready to bite a chunk out of the backside of any passing punter. Rangirangdoo comes out as the favourite with IASbet, having dropped slightly, followed by Drumbeats on 4.80 and Road To Rock on 5.00. I’d avoid unless you know something I don’t but it may be worth a placings shot on O’Lonhro or Mr Baritone if a decent price is to be had.
-The Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m. A clear favourite here – Onemorenomore on 2.35 with IASbet. He’s taking a new path after he came third in the George Main Stakes last weekend, and is no longer off to the Caulfield Guineas but none the less looked good last time out. 2.35 or better seems sensible here.
-The Metropolitan over 2400m. Here I’d advise you to watch the weather and the track. Mr Clangtastic, on 5.50 with IASbet, likes the wet weather and a heavy track. If it’s wetter than the deep blue sea out there and your finest Wellingtons are looking brown this price looks good for him, although his trainer could have him scratched if the track is good. Also looking interesting here is Zavite for a possible placings shot, but bear in mind there’s an army of runners hovering around 14.00 to 24.00 ready to make you blush.
Good luck people. It’s very open today and I’ll be taking it easy. If it all flattens in the mud for you there’s always the NRL grand final betting markets, more on that tomorrow morning. Turf’s up.
Read more »Payne’s racing record speaks for itself chaps
October 1st, 2009 by adminWhether or not you’ve got money on El Segundo in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, you’d have to be pretty cold-hearted not to have a soft spot for him.
Piloting the 2007 Cox Plate winner is female jockey Michelle Payne – called in by trainer Colin Little due to a suspension handed to Luke Nolen.
The 24-year-old has won more than 400 races and will probably see Saturday as one of the biggest opportunities of her life. Mainly because she is a woman.
Despite her success and wealth of experience, which includes riding in England, Ireland and France, news of her scheduled appearance on Saturday is greeted with welcome surprise by the media, because, despite the progress made by the sport in recent years, Payne is still something of a rarity.
The Pom De Turf is in philosophical mood on this otherwise unremarkable Wednesday afternoon. Bear with me.
In my homeland racing is seen as a still-successful sport but one with an uncertain future – beyond the likes of the Grand National and Ladies’ Day at Ascot, racing is still associated with old men in smoky rooms by a lot of people.
To safeguard the long-term future of the sport, this has to change and female jockeys are very much part of that important pattern of change. That’s why even if El Segundo beats my tip on Saturday I won’t cry over spilt dollars.
[Removes elbow-padded jacket] Right, onto the betting for the Turnbull Stakes.
As it happens Payne says Flemington is her favourite course and she already has form with El Segundo, having piloted him to his maiden win. He’s currently on 10.00 with IASbet and will likely drop before the race – there are four horses ahead of him in the betting at the moment, but if you fancy a punt in solidarity the time is very much now.
Predatory Pricer is the current favourite, but only just, on 4.60, with Vigor right behind him on 4.80. Then comes Maldivian on 5.50. Too close to call right now and a placings bet might be more worthwhile come Friday, then again it might not, I’ll update on this later in the week.
Now I’m off to join old men in a smoky room to watch the action from Moonee Valley. Just kidding, thank god.
Read more »St Kilda a tempting prospect in the AFL betting markets
September 26th, 2009 by adminSaturday has some intriguing horse racing but much of the nation’s attention will inevitably be focused on the AFL grand final. If you’re looking for a short distraction from the track before the spring really gets hectic, where better to look than the MCG?
To recap, Geelong are facing St Kilda in a winner-takes-all battle which has already seen some interesting betting patterns. Despite the fact St Kilda were the form team throughout the regular season, Geelong opened up the online markets by instantly grasping the favourites tag.
As we speak they are still on 1.65 with Betfair compared to 2.48 for St Kilda. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy are numerous. St Kilda did have a wee bit of a wobble towards the end of the conventional season, whereas Geelong were mighty impressive in their last preliminary final against Collingwood. Many therefore feel the wind is with the Cats.
If you’re going to force me to have an opinion, I’d say otherwise. Anything can happen in the final and St Kilda have been better overall throughout the season. By all accounts the weather is going to be rotten as well tomorrow, which may better suit St Kilda’s tough pressing approach. Like I said, it’s a final, so anything can happen, but I’d say St Kilda is the wiser move.
Back to the turf and we have the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick, featuring current Caulfield guineas favourite Denman. He’s only got four rivals at present in the 1400m run, although one of them is More Than Great. As such he’s on 1.45 with IASbet – which is actually looking pretty reasonable – if you can find 1.50-odd anywhere, I’d go with that, if not, take the 1.45. I actually mentioned this race earlier in the week and told you to slap something on Denman when he was up on 1.60 in some places. Pay attention.
There’s also the group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick, which is much harder to call. Racing To Win is the current favourite on 1.90 with Centrebet, but Onemorenomore is looking relatively reasonable on 4.75 and Black Piranha is 6.50. Racing To Win is going to be very hard to beat, but I don’t fancy those odds. A wee wedge on Black Piranha just for fun gets my shout.
Enjoy the (wet) weekend. Turf’s up people.
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