Posts Tagged ‘horse racing betting’
Melbourne Cup: Can Godolphin Find A Winner?
August 8th, 2013 by Pom de TurfGodolphin Racing have had some success at the Melbourne Cup, registering runners-up on more than one occasion, but will this be the year that they finally produce a winner? Their hopes will be Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Are You Looking Ahead To The Melbourne Cup?
July 16th, 2013 by Pom de TurfIf you’re already looking forward to November 5th, you’re not alone. There are plenty of punters beginning to cast an eye over the potential runners, and we’re seeing Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Highs, lows and nearly-theres – the story so far
November 10th, 2009 by adminIt seems so long now since I was sounding out Voice Commander in the Warwick Stakes back in August – a whole season of racing has thundered by since then, and all-in-all, besides some shocks, surprises and downright screw-ups, I’m pretty happy with my work for the spring. Not bad for a pom.
As it happens Voice Commander was one of my early tipping failures after Trusting overturned him – but thankfully I bounced back with Secret Flyer in the BC3 Future Stars.
See below a summary of some of my tipping successes over the last three months – along with the odds at the time I tipped them, where I recorded them, and a ‘P’ in brackets for successful placings shouts rather than when I picked a winner.
August
Secret Flyer – BC3 Future Stars – 2.70
Glowlamp – Intergaze Maiden Plate – 1.85 (grew to 2.25)
September
Denman – Golden Rose – 2.64
Mic Mac – Memsie – 3.00
Mr Clangtastic – Wyong Gold Cup – 3.70
Black Piranha – Danehill Stakes – 1.75
Miss Marielle (P) – Chelmsford Stakes – 6.33
Denman – Stan Fox Stakes – 1.60
October
Whobegotyou – Yalumba Stakes
Shamoline Warrior – Norman Robinson Stakes – 3.80
Roman Emperor (P) – Caulfield Cup – 6.00
Manhattan Rain (P) – Cox Plate – 6.00
November
Crime Scene (P) – Melbourne Cup – 12.50
Looking back over these, it doesn’t look to bad at all – and that Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup placings hat-trick shows I got into the swing of things and hit form at the right time. Of course, besides the successes listed here, there was also a good smattering of failure – in particular I was irked at the failure of Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup -but overall I’m happy with my handiwork.
This Saturday I’ll be hoping to carry my form into the meeting at Sandown, with the online bookmakers yet to open their markets for the day. Of special interest will be the Sandown Classic, which could be tricky because a number of horses with high profiles are appearing – but will be out of their usual comfort zones distance-wise. As such there’s the chance of an upset. Markets should be open Thursday-ish – I’ll keep you posted.
Read more »How to win even when your horse loses in the Caulfield Guineas
October 10th, 2009 by adminForgive me while I become misty-eyed for a few moments on this quiet and portentous Friday afternoon. Tomorrow we finally see what I really consider to be the curtain-raiser of the season in the shape of the Caulfield Guineas, and hopefully a reminder of what it’s all about.
If you’re going to Caulfield tomorrow, and whoever you’re betting on (perhaps no-one, perhaps you just like to get loaded and admire the hats) I advise you to get as close to the action as possible.
That’s part of the beauty of horse racing – the potential proximity of the spectators to the action. At seated sport you can’t just shoulder your way through and grip the barrier at the front if you feel like it, you’re stuck in your bucket, with only a foot-square space to gesticulate in.
So when race seven comes around, please don’t hover at the back, peering over people’s heads and guarding your champagne flute. If you can, shuffle close to the front and get that all-important glimpse of your jockey’s silks ruffling in the wind.
Watch your horse strain every sinew up close; you’ll probably see the jockeys’ teeth gritted as they surge for the post. Unless you’re dead behind the eyes, the hairs on the back of your neck will stand up, and win or lose you’ll feel that hard and fast rush that means you’ve got your money’s worth.
Denman, unsurprisingly, remains the favourite with all and sundry again today. Betfair have him on odds of 2.80 and this may be as good as you’re going to get today. Peering around for value could be the key if you are thinking of holding off until tomorrow.
The weather forecast for Caulfield is looking reasonable and I’ve just been checking an update on the track conditions, last updated 8am this morning. It’s a good 3 and there’s been no overnight rain.
More tomorrow, including my final shout. So You Think is edging around but at the moment I’m a Denman man.
Read more »Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron
October 8th, 2009 by adminConfidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.
Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.
”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.
Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.
IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.
The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.
The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.
Read more »Saturday preview for (hopefully) rainy Randwick
October 3rd, 2009 by adminIt’s promising to be a spectacular spring Saturday at Randwick today. Yes, that’s right, it’s the weekend. Pleased to see me? You will be if I pick a crop of betting winners.
A quick summary for you. There are a whopping 10 races on at Randwick today, with five of them group 1. Weather is expected to be rainy following a few showers on Friday too.
Highlights include;
-The Epsom Handicap over 1600m. In here you will find one or two performers from the George Main Stakes, including winner Road To Rock and Black Piranha, second in last weekend’s race.
Last time I looked the betting for this one was very tight and generally looked ready to bite a chunk out of the backside of any passing punter. Rangirangdoo comes out as the favourite with IASbet, having dropped slightly, followed by Drumbeats on 4.80 and Road To Rock on 5.00. I’d avoid unless you know something I don’t but it may be worth a placings shot on O’Lonhro or Mr Baritone if a decent price is to be had.
-The Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m. A clear favourite here – Onemorenomore on 2.35 with IASbet. He’s taking a new path after he came third in the George Main Stakes last weekend, and is no longer off to the Caulfield Guineas but none the less looked good last time out. 2.35 or better seems sensible here.
-The Metropolitan over 2400m. Here I’d advise you to watch the weather and the track. Mr Clangtastic, on 5.50 with IASbet, likes the wet weather and a heavy track. If it’s wetter than the deep blue sea out there and your finest Wellingtons are looking brown this price looks good for him, although his trainer could have him scratched if the track is good. Also looking interesting here is Zavite for a possible placings shot, but bear in mind there’s an army of runners hovering around 14.00 to 24.00 ready to make you blush.
Good luck people. It’s very open today and I’ll be taking it easy. If it all flattens in the mud for you there’s always the NRL grand final betting markets, more on that tomorrow morning. Turf’s up.
Read more »NRL betting markets refuse to move, like a fat prop
October 2nd, 2009 by adminAs the week passes by it’s clear there’s going to be little movement in the NRL betting markets ahead of the grand final on Sunday.
If you ask me, I’m not a massive finals betting fan – because anything can happen in a final, and it frequently does. Knockout ties in general are very unpredictable – just look at what happened between St Kilda and Geelong in the recent AFL grand final. St Kilda were the marginal outsiders in the betting markets but looked like a good shout thanks to their form throughout the regular season. All was looking good until the end when the Cats pinched it and put a smile back on the face of the bookies. I was one of the ones left with a face like a smacked bum.
Anyway, that said, it’s a very miserable NRL betting fan who doesn’t have at least a little wager for the grand final.
Over at Betfair we see odds of 1.64 for Melbourne and 2.52 for Parramatta. Odds for the Storm have only hovered from about 1.70 to about 1.62, while the Eels started down at about 2.20 and rose somewhat before settling at 2.52 where they look likely to stay. Nothing remarkable about any of this and to be fair they were the best odds I could find on Thursday. Worth a small tickle on Parramatta perhaps, but more on this in the run-up to the final.
There’s a whopping 10 race card at Randwick on Saturday including the aforementioned Epsom Handicap. This is where I’ll be focussing most of my attention at the weekend, especially as mother nature is threatening to intervene.
Forecasts for Sydney today say sunshine and showers on Friday followed by the possibility of a deluge on Saturday. This poses some interesting questions in particular for The Metropolitan which features Mr Clangtastic, currently on 6.50 with Sportingbet.
I’ve picked him out because he has performed for me in the past, especially in the wet, winning the Wyong Cup. Trainer Marc Conners tends to watch the skies and sends him where the rain is but it may come to him on Saturday. So I’d have a wee wedge on that 6.50 now and do a rain dance.
Denman ends my losing streak in fine style
September 29th, 2009 by adminIt turns out pretty much nobody was right about the Manikato Stakes at a damp Moonee Valley on Friday night. Now no-one is happy. Last time in a while I get mixed up in a race like that.
Danleigh took the honours. Who? I know. A 17.00 outsider. The favourite, Nicconi, was third and my shout Mic Mac ended up in fifth. So I look daft but so do all the weirdos who shunned Mic Mac in favour of Nicconi. Let that be a lesson to both of us. Now let’s move on.
Saturday’s hotly-anticipated NFL grand final did go the way of the favourite – in this case Geelong Cats, who won 80 to 68 over St Kilda, although at least St Kilda were making a damn good show of it until a goal in the final seconds robbed the outsiders at the last. Well, I did warn you anything can happen in a final.
Thank god there was some good news from Randwick on Saturday where my tip Denman stormed to victory in the small but competitive field of the Stan Fox Stakes. He shrank down to around 1.35 on the day so anyone who took my advice and gobbled him up at 1.50 on Friday or 1.60 earlier in the week should be smiling today. I take it my brandy is in the post. Thanks.
Unfortunately there was no double for my predictions at Randwick – the group 1 George Main Stakes was won by outsider Road to Rock – a 41.00-odd shout before the race, although Black Piranha and Onemorenomore, who I advised over favourite Racing to Win, were at least second and third respectively.
After the sweat and mud of the AFL grand final on Saturday we have the NRL equivalent to worry about next weekend with Melbourne booking their place in the big one against Parramatta after rolling over the Broncos 40-10 on Saturday.
Add to that a packed horse racing card which includes the Epsom Handicap at Randwick on Saturday, then we’ve got another powder keg week. We’re also less than 12 days away from the Caulfield Guineas. It’s getting serious now.
Read more »St Kilda a tempting prospect in the AFL betting markets
September 26th, 2009 by adminSaturday has some intriguing horse racing but much of the nation’s attention will inevitably be focused on the AFL grand final. If you’re looking for a short distraction from the track before the spring really gets hectic, where better to look than the MCG?
To recap, Geelong are facing St Kilda in a winner-takes-all battle which has already seen some interesting betting patterns. Despite the fact St Kilda were the form team throughout the regular season, Geelong opened up the online markets by instantly grasping the favourites tag.
As we speak they are still on 1.65 with Betfair compared to 2.48 for St Kilda. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy are numerous. St Kilda did have a wee bit of a wobble towards the end of the conventional season, whereas Geelong were mighty impressive in their last preliminary final against Collingwood. Many therefore feel the wind is with the Cats.
If you’re going to force me to have an opinion, I’d say otherwise. Anything can happen in the final and St Kilda have been better overall throughout the season. By all accounts the weather is going to be rotten as well tomorrow, which may better suit St Kilda’s tough pressing approach. Like I said, it’s a final, so anything can happen, but I’d say St Kilda is the wiser move.
Back to the turf and we have the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick, featuring current Caulfield guineas favourite Denman. He’s only got four rivals at present in the 1400m run, although one of them is More Than Great. As such he’s on 1.45 with IASbet – which is actually looking pretty reasonable – if you can find 1.50-odd anywhere, I’d go with that, if not, take the 1.45. I actually mentioned this race earlier in the week and told you to slap something on Denman when he was up on 1.60 in some places. Pay attention.
There’s also the group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick, which is much harder to call. Racing To Win is the current favourite on 1.90 with Centrebet, but Onemorenomore is looking relatively reasonable on 4.75 and Black Piranha is 6.50. Racing To Win is going to be very hard to beat, but I don’t fancy those odds. A wee wedge on Black Piranha just for fun gets my shout.
Enjoy the (wet) weekend. Turf’s up people.
Read more »Manikato Stakes offers plenty of betting mysteries
September 25th, 2009 by adminThere’s a creeping sense of “they know something I don’t” this Thursday. Sometimes other horse racing punters still put me in a strop. Allow me to elaborate.
Tomorrow night it’s the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, as mentioned previously in the week. It’s a group 1 race with a strong field, not least Mic Mac, Memsie Stakes winner and all-round hot shot.
It’s also been wet at the track this week and as of Thursday it’s rated as a Dead 5. By all accounts it’s still chucking it down too. Mic Mac has a good record on such a surface, winning the Memsie on turf rated Dead.
However, it’s not him who is leading the online gambling markets – it’s Nicconi, currently on 4.40 with Mic Mac on 4.60 with IASbet.
I suppose you could point to the fact that Mic Mac’s last run was a 1600m – the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, where he was second. However, he’s never had a great problem with the 1200m – and was first in the 1200m Aurie’s Star Handicap in August on-yes, you guessed it, a dead track.
What of Nicconi? Granted this horse last won on a short 1000m on September 12 but the record book shows he’s never actually won at 1200m, so why has he edged in front? I have visions of men in dark coats around the back of stables whispering so quietly that not even Nicconi’s pointy ears can hear them.
Granted, it is a pretty open field, but if you feel Nicconi looks the better shout over Mic Mac, please spill the beans and let me know why. And don’t say you can feel it in your waters, that doesn’t wash with my cold British heart.
Besides that, I’m still cautiously going for Mic Mac on this one. But I’d keep it low. A Friday fling, if you will, before the weekend. After all about 500 stone of muscle is colliding in the AFL grand final on Saturday, and hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, will also be taking a bashing as the MCG heaves with 100,000 fans.
Meanwhile I’ll keep my eye on Mic Mac and hope to learn something on Friday night. Turf’s up.
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