Archive for October, 2009
Irish Lights and Melito shine through the pre-cup betting fog
October 15th, 2009 by adminIrish lights are shining today after the favourite lived up to her billing and clinched the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield earlier. I’m fairly pleased as well because Melito came second and ran a good race after I advised her for a placings bet if you could scrape decent value from somewhere.
Melito looked good towards the end too, ending up only a long neck behind and tantalising me with the belief that I might actually be able to successfully tip the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.
I puffed up my chest and settled into a comfort zone again before I properly examined the barrier draw for Saturday and realised everything had gone to pot again.
A number of the pre-draw favourites have drawn poorly, having only recently shuffled themselves to the top of the pecking order after it was revealed Speed Gifted will not be running on Saturday.
Depending on where you’ve been looking over the last four days you might have seen Speed Gifted, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Kirklees as the favourite for the $2.5 race. As we speak the bookies still can’t reach a consensus after Predatory Pricer drew barrier 16.
IASbet has Daffodil as the favourite on odds of 8.00 after a barrier four draw, with Kirklees, Cima De Triomphe and Predatory Pricer all tied on 8.50. I think that’s what’s known as ‘open’.
Over at Centrebet the current favourite is Kirklees on 7.50, while Daffodil is out on 11.00 here. Predatory Pricer is at 8.50, and just to rub salt into the wound there’s the ominous duo of Vigor and Allez Wonder, both on 10.00.
Clear as mud then. There are a couple of days left for this madness to settle but it’s fair to say it’s a mighty tough call.
I’ve heard one or two whispers online for Cima De Triomphe, but at this stage everyone is left looking at each other wondering what the hell just happened. Tomorrow and Friday I’ll be delving into the stats book in search of answers. Until then.
Read more »Pull-outs blow open the Caulfield Cup betting markets
October 14th, 2009 by adminWhen galloper Predatory Pricer got up off his considerable backside this morning and blinked open his big brown eyes, he was at best third favourite in the betting markets for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
By the time he’d relieved himself, been led out the stable and had a little run out, he was heading for the top of the betting after Speed Gifted was dropped out of the 2400m race to instead head off to the Cox Plate in the direction of the Melbourne Cup.
Punters keen on the half brother of Takeover Target will be hoping the bookmakers’ crown does not lie too heavy. He seemed to stubbornly wheel away in the wrong direction at one point this morning and didn’t look terribly chuffed to be up and out on the grass, but then again neither would I at that time of day. Jockey Steven King told the Herald Sun: “His form’s been outstanding even though he’s doing a lot wrong”. Outstanding and imperfect, much like me.
You can currently get 7.60 for him at Betfair, ahead of Vigor on 8.00, with the two joint favourites in other markets. Next in line is Cima De Triomphe at 9.00 and Daffodil completes the top pack at 13.00.
Ergo, Saturday is becoming a bit of a bear trap, but Vigor and Predatory Pricer do at least look in the right place at the top of the tree. More on his throughout the week.
Back to tomorrow’s diversion of the Thousand Guineas now. Irish Lights is still way out in front at 2.55 but Melito, trained by Gerald Ryan, is perhaps a bit on the high side at 10.00 in some markets earlier this week, now at 8.00 with Centrebet.
Betfair has her at a better 9.00 though, and she attracted a spike in punters cash with the bookmaker when easing up to 10.00 earlier in the week. She looks like more fun than a punt on Irish Lights if you are after something a bit more sexy, but if you’d rather play it safe with Melito go with a placings if you can find decent value.
Tomorrow’s race can act as a wind test for Saturday. Hopefully it’s blowing in my favour for what could be a gripping Caulfield Cup. Turf’s up.
Read more »Whobegotyou pays me back but Denman doesn’t deliver
October 13th, 2009 by adminWell Saturday didn’t disappoint as far as excitement goes. If you like a shock the Guineas at Caulfield was the place to be. Starspangledbanner outstripped four of the hottest youngsters in racing and made the bookies the main winners for the first major group 1 race of the spring.
Starspangledbanner burst away mighty fast and led the whole way, with Manhattan Rain the only one getting close and ending up in second. Denman, my shout, everybody’s shout, pretty much, was unplaced and was stuck three-wide through the hole thing, so we can probably let him off.
However, it was a nice, mean satisfying feeling to see Whobegotyou win the Yalumba Stakes on Saturday, not just because he was my tip for the race, but because he showed me up earlier on this year.
Last month he out-raced El Segundo, my shout in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, so he owed me big time and clearly felt guilty, starting at the back and edging ahead to break away and win it in the last 100. Jockey Damien Oliver also clocked up his 2000th win when he saved my blushes.
A mixed weekend again then but I’m fairly pleased with Whobegotyou. Saturday has nicely whetted my appetite for Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas as well, while of course we have the Caulfield Cup to deal with this Saturday.
The build-up machine has re-booted itself today, with much chatter over whether or not Speed Gifted, the current favourite, will actually appear. Trainer LeeFreedman has said he could be steered towards a Melbourne Cup attempt instead but the skies may decide it; the galloper tends to like the wet and the forecast for Saturday is rain so he may yet make it. We should find out tomorrow anyway.
Onwards, with cautious optimism and an umbrella.
Read more »The week ahead, including a World Cup betting blast
October 13th, 2009 by adminIt’s Sunday and whether or not you had any luck at Caulfield yesterday, there’s no time to waste; the racing is coming thick and fast now.
Wednesday sees Australia’s top fillies line up for the Thousand Guineas, again at Caulfield, with Irish lights leading the betting, on 3.00 with IASbet. On to Saturday and we’re at Caulfield again for the Caulfield Cup, where Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is the current favourite, on odds of 5.00 with Centrebet.
As with the Thousand Guineas, I’ll be spending the next few days picking through the hype and gripes surrounding these two races in the hope of steering you in the right direction.
As it’s Sunday today, however, I decided it was time for some light reading in the shape of a scan around the soccer betting markets for World Cup 2010.
Next year’s tournament is in South Africa and a number of big names have already qualified with room to spare, this includes Brazil, who have already won it five times in the past, and Spain, who dazzled with their passing game in winning Euro 2008.
England have also already qualified, as of course have Australia. Also already in the mix are Holland, who had a decent showing themselves at Euro 2008 before being surprisingly knocked out by Russia.
Pretty much everywhere you look at this early stage you find Spain and Brazil rightly out in front. Both have a very good chance next year, with Brazil winning the warm-up Confederations Cup in South Africa early this year. They are on 5.50, level with Spain, at IASbet, for next year.
Bafflingly, behind these two, come England as the 7.00 third favourites. Granted, they did have a good qualification campaign but their win against Croatia to seal the deal last month was against an under-strength side lacking the talents of Luca Modric. As such they have not faced a true test in a competitive match for a while and it’s bizarre that they are rated as more likely to win than Holland, on 12.00 with the same bookmaker.
A word for Russia here. Ok, they do have the odd strange performance but going forward they can be exhilarating and they were unlucky to go out to Spain in the Euro 2008 semi-finals after a very good tournament which saw them beat Holland. 26.00 therefore looks good for them at this stage with IASbet.
Until tomorrow, when I’ll be counting the mental cost of the weekend’s racing.
Read more »The wait is over and Denman looks ready to justify Caulfield Guineas odds
October 11th, 2009 by adminToday it won’t matter one bit what I’ve been prattling on about on here – at the end of the day once the tape goes up in the Caulfield Guineas we’re all on our own, a sea of well-dressed chancers grasping our betting slips in the crisp and cutting spring air.
I’m guessing that the last thing going through the mind of jockey Kerrin McEvoy as he stares at the Caulfield track between Denman’s ears is what the Pom de Turf is going to write on Monday morning if the pair of them have an off day.
For what it’s worth, I won’t be happy though. Form, tipping chatter and the bookies are all pointing towards the Peter Snowden-trained star and finding value might be your only problem today.
The last time I checked Betfair were among the few bookies prepared to offer you a little over the 2.70 to 2.80 mark for Denman. If your bowels are telling you not to follow the crowd then my personal recommendation would be Manhattan Rain, who has been knocking around a very tempting 6.50 to 7.00 all week and who is due a performance which truly fulfils his considerable potential.
By all accounts he has also looked truly sharp this week, with Gai Waterhouse declaring “it will be a great race on Saturday with the best colts in Australia coming together but I really believe I have the horse to win my first Caulfield Guineas”, so he’s your horse if you fancy living a little more dangerously, but I’m sticking my neck out with Denman.
Elsewhere today there’s plenty of adequate distraction from the Guineas in the shape of the Toorak Handicap and the Yalumba Stakes, among others. The latter could see a very tight contest between Heart Of Dreams and Whobegotyou, and simply because he did me earlier in the season I’m going with Whobegotyou. I feel like he owes me one.
Other than that my advice is simply this; relax and enjoy the thunder of hooves which means the best of the season’s group 1 racing has begun.
Read more »How to win even when your horse loses in the Caulfield Guineas
October 10th, 2009 by adminForgive me while I become misty-eyed for a few moments on this quiet and portentous Friday afternoon. Tomorrow we finally see what I really consider to be the curtain-raiser of the season in the shape of the Caulfield Guineas, and hopefully a reminder of what it’s all about.
If you’re going to Caulfield tomorrow, and whoever you’re betting on (perhaps no-one, perhaps you just like to get loaded and admire the hats) I advise you to get as close to the action as possible.
That’s part of the beauty of horse racing – the potential proximity of the spectators to the action. At seated sport you can’t just shoulder your way through and grip the barrier at the front if you feel like it, you’re stuck in your bucket, with only a foot-square space to gesticulate in.
So when race seven comes around, please don’t hover at the back, peering over people’s heads and guarding your champagne flute. If you can, shuffle close to the front and get that all-important glimpse of your jockey’s silks ruffling in the wind.
Watch your horse strain every sinew up close; you’ll probably see the jockeys’ teeth gritted as they surge for the post. Unless you’re dead behind the eyes, the hairs on the back of your neck will stand up, and win or lose you’ll feel that hard and fast rush that means you’ve got your money’s worth.
Denman, unsurprisingly, remains the favourite with all and sundry again today. Betfair have him on odds of 2.80 and this may be as good as you’re going to get today. Peering around for value could be the key if you are thinking of holding off until tomorrow.
The weather forecast for Caulfield is looking reasonable and I’ve just been checking an update on the track conditions, last updated 8am this morning. It’s a good 3 and there’s been no overnight rain.
More tomorrow, including my final shout. So You Think is edging around but at the moment I’m a Denman man.
Read more »Twitter users pitch in with their Guineas betting twopence
October 9th, 2009 by adminTwitter might not be the best place to go hunting for Caulfield Guineas betting tips, but given the build-up to Saturday’s race is getting ever broader, it’s a welcome distraction from some of the predictable waffling coming from some sections of the media.
The main problem with this social media phenomenon is justification. 140 characters is barely enough to say what is happening, or to say what you think is going to happen, let alone say why it’s happening or why you think it’s likely to happen.
Take the following example;
Pom_De_Turf Trust me, turf lovers, Denman is the hottest prospect for the Caulfield Guineas betting on Saturday, he’s currently on odds of 2.80 (IASbet)
(140 characters)
There’s about enough room to squeeze in his odds, his name, the bookie, the race, the location, but as for saying why you think he’s in with a shout, forget it. Therefore taking your tweet as a tip is almost as much of a gamble as going in blind.
Of course, one hopes for a link in a tweet, taking the user to a long, detailed and almost scientific breakdown of why Denman is going to make you rich come booze-up time on Saturday, but ‘I think this nag is a cert’ often has to suffice.
So who are the thumb-twirling keyboard-bashing lovers of Twitter backing so far?
“I’m on Denman bandwagon. Denman to do what Lil O did!” says show_pony, while craigeyles says “Denman & So You Think look the best chances.” Horse_Racing_AU, points to a Betfair tipping story which is also backing the colt.
Cyberspace has apparently spoken and appears to be erring on the side of Denman, and so am I at this stage, with less than 48 hours to go. That previous form cannot be ignored, and even the rising interest in Guineas specialist Bart Cummings and Trusting, on 7.00 with IASbet, can’t sway me. Denman is 2.80 today with the same bookmaker and remains the favourite. Those odds could be smaller than my bookie’s credit limit by Saturday, so at this stage it seems good value.
Read more »Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron
October 8th, 2009 by adminConfidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.
Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.
”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.
Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.
IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.
The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.
The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.
Read more »The Caulfield Guineas for dummies
October 7th, 2009 by adminToday’s post begins the countdown in earnest to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas by guiding the numskulls and novices among us through what will happen on Saturday. I like to call it ‘The Caulfield Guineas for Poms, Plonkers and Pre-Post Punters’. Listen carefully, lest you end up still in the second category come race day.
In latest developments the barrier draw went off on Tuesday and saw Denman and Trusting drew seven and ten respectively, which did nothing to alter their position at the top of the online horse racing markets.
There’s some minor variation out there at this still relatively early stage. Betfair has got Denman on 2.82, with Trusting on 4.70. Over at IASbet the same pair are on odds of 2.70 and 4.80 respectively.
There are two others which are well in the mix – Manhattan Rain, on 6.80 and So You Think on 8.80, both with Betfair, and after this the closest chance is Starspangledbanner on 14.50.
1600m is the distance and the prize pot is a cool $1 million, but the Guineas is about much more than cash, despite what its name might suggest to the layman. It’s an Australian horse racing event which dates back to 1881 and which actually drew its influence from England, namely the 2,000 Guineas Classic, which also means set weights – a rarity in Australian thoroughbred racing. The first-ever winner was Wheatear and it’s been run every year since, with Whobegotyou claiming the glory last year.
So much attention is focussed on Trusting and Denman because they are widely seen as two of the brightest colts in Australian racing, and both are in fine form; Denman will make it seven wins in a row if he wins on Saturday.
Unless you’ve been in a bunker filled with jelly for the last six months, you should also know it’s the first truly major group 1 event of the spring and as such can be a useful guide for those wondering how the runners will do throughout the rest of the campaign.
I’ll be watching the build-up like a hawk and bringing you all the market movements throughout the week, brandy in hand, cash in a tight fist, which may only get tighter as the days tick by. We shall see.
Read more »Rude results in the Randwick rain
October 6th, 2009 by adminWell done for Randwick on Saturday – if you even got in it was apparently a result given the fact the wet weather kept the attendance indoors and disappointed crowds at the gates. By all accounts it was just like England, no doubt I would’ve felt right at home.
The poor weather pretty much reflected my luck over the weekend, on the track at least, as the Spring Champion Stakes went to Monaco Consul, not Onemorenomore, and The Metropolitan went to Speed Gifted, which no matter how much I squint and how much I try to cajole the bookies, looks nothing like Mr Clangtastic.
Another poor showing on the track after a reasonable one the weekend before. Perhaps I’m best ignored every other Saturday, but I did warn Randwick looked like a nightmare given the openness of pretty much everything which went through the barriers. At least there’s the Caulfield Guineas to look forward to on Saturday, when superstars Trusting, Denman and Manhattan Rain will be in attendance. Plenty of reason to be cheerful with that lot tacking to the track.
Thankfully the main event of the weekend, the NRL grand final, came through for me. Yesterday I nudged and winked at 3.20 for a Melbourne win by one to 12 points with IASbet, and so it came to pass as the Storm beat Parramatta by 23 points to 16. Just call me Nostradamus.
In reality it wasn’t written in stone but in the Eel’s game plan, which wasn’t its old self and was lacking the very best of fullback Jarryd Hayne, who needed to have a good day to see his side upset the odds. As a result Melbourne imposed themselves early on and were just too good to let the Eels pinch their second title in three years.
After the dust has settled it’s always worth having a cheeky peek at the NRL betting markets for next season, with Betfair saying the Eels can bounce back as favourites on 5.30 for 2010. Melbourne are just behind on 5.40 for their third title in four years.
Until next season for NRL but until tomorrow for me as I begin a frenzied and nervous build-up to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas.
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