Posts Tagged ‘Betfair’
Looking on the bright side for the Caulfield Cup
October 17th, 2009 by adminSunshine and a few clouds are likely to greet the Caulfield Cup faithful on Saturday, according to the latest weather forecast, but the ongoing uncertainty in the markets looks likely to cause a dreary end to the day for a fair few punters.
There are some chinks of light through what is the most clouded market of the spring so far. Both Cima De Trimphe and Kirklees have continued to emerge and the latter is the 9.00 joint favourite with Betfair. Cima De Triomphe is at 9.20 and Predatory Pricer is on 9.00. These three, followed closely by Daffodil at 9.60, have emerged from the fog over the last 48 hours.
I’m still sticking with Kirklees purely because of his recent form over this distance, but it doesn’t take a genius to know an awful lot can happen tomorrow.
Where there is an open field, there is also value mixed in with the uncertainty, if history has taught us anything. A look at the placings odds shows up some tempting morsels which might be worth a look. Roman Emperor, ridden by Hugh Bowman, is around 6.00 for this and Red Ruler is on 7.00 and both could be worth a small investment. If you can find reasonable value for Kirklees each way, which admittedly is unlikely, try that too.
You’d be mad not to have a little browse elsewhere as well. There are plenty of sub-plots which could potentially save your bacon and your blushes if you play your cards right. Earlier on the card before the main event is the group 3 2000m Norman Robinson Stakes where a number of horses need a result in order to kick on for the season. Shamoline Warrior, a serious contender for the Victoria Derby, is a reasonably-priced favourite with IASbet at 3.80, while Tribunal may also be worth a small look at 4.60.
It’s been a weird week, what with the Caulfield Cup barrier draw and earlier pull-outs. But there’s nothing left to do other than sit back and enjoy the ride, turf lovers.
Read more »Figures favour Kirklees in Caulfield Cup chaos
October 16th, 2009 by adminThere’s little hope of a calmer sea for the Caulfield Cup betting markets on this edgy Thursday afternoon – if anything they’ve become more unstable overnight.
To re-cap, first of all the former favourite for Saturday’s big race, Speed Gifted, was instead nudged to the Cox Plate by his connections. Then Maldivian, another big contender pulled up injured and will play no further part in the spring.
Predatory Pricer briefly took up the baton of favourite on Tuesday before the barrier draw scattered the gathering punters again, dumping some of the big contenders out wide.
Today IASbet has Daffdodil and Cima de Triomphe as the joint favourites on odds of 8.00, with Predatory Pricer, set back somewhat by his barrier 16 draw, on 8.50. Next comes Kiklees at 9.00.
If this is how it stays until Saturday, I’ll eat my hip flask. Pretty much every market is awash with blinking up and down arrows so every time I log on I think I’m seeing Christmas lights. Alas, it’s just a set of flashing icons which could spell danger for Saturday.
In search of some clarity, I’m delving into the stats. Both Cima de Triomphe and Kirklees have been attracting plenty of attention thanks to their barrier draws of 11 and seven. Kirklees, a Godolphin star, should not overly struggle with the 2400m on Saturday if recent results are to be believed.
He won the September Stakes at this distance on September 5 and all his three races of the summer were over 2000m. However, he’s been piloted by Frankie Dettori for his last seven wins on the bounce but is partnered with Kerrin McEvoy on Saturday as Dettori is down to ride at Newmarket in the UK on Saturday. McEvoy has been studying videos of Kirklees and has described him as looking “straightforward”. How Kirklees feels about McEvoy is anyone’s guess though, and its debatable whether or not the change of rider will have an effect.
Turning to Cima De Triomphe, the Luca Cumani-trained stayer has also seen plenty of 2000m-plus racing but hasn’t won since May 28, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. His last effort at this precise distance saw him 9th from 16 in the Qatar Prix DE L’Arc De Triomph, which was just over a year ago.
The more recent figures are therefore certainly pointing to Kirklees, who is on odds of 7.50 with Centrebet, but looks better at 9.00 with Betfair. There’s your answer, if there is such a thing to this ongoing conundrum.
Read more »Pull-outs blow open the Caulfield Cup betting markets
October 14th, 2009 by adminWhen galloper Predatory Pricer got up off his considerable backside this morning and blinked open his big brown eyes, he was at best third favourite in the betting markets for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
By the time he’d relieved himself, been led out the stable and had a little run out, he was heading for the top of the betting after Speed Gifted was dropped out of the 2400m race to instead head off to the Cox Plate in the direction of the Melbourne Cup.
Punters keen on the half brother of Takeover Target will be hoping the bookmakers’ crown does not lie too heavy. He seemed to stubbornly wheel away in the wrong direction at one point this morning and didn’t look terribly chuffed to be up and out on the grass, but then again neither would I at that time of day. Jockey Steven King told the Herald Sun: “His form’s been outstanding even though he’s doing a lot wrong”. Outstanding and imperfect, much like me.
You can currently get 7.60 for him at Betfair, ahead of Vigor on 8.00, with the two joint favourites in other markets. Next in line is Cima De Triomphe at 9.00 and Daffodil completes the top pack at 13.00.
Ergo, Saturday is becoming a bit of a bear trap, but Vigor and Predatory Pricer do at least look in the right place at the top of the tree. More on his throughout the week.
Back to tomorrow’s diversion of the Thousand Guineas now. Irish Lights is still way out in front at 2.55 but Melito, trained by Gerald Ryan, is perhaps a bit on the high side at 10.00 in some markets earlier this week, now at 8.00 with Centrebet.
Betfair has her at a better 9.00 though, and she attracted a spike in punters cash with the bookmaker when easing up to 10.00 earlier in the week. She looks like more fun than a punt on Irish Lights if you are after something a bit more sexy, but if you’d rather play it safe with Melito go with a placings if you can find decent value.
Tomorrow’s race can act as a wind test for Saturday. Hopefully it’s blowing in my favour for what could be a gripping Caulfield Cup. Turf’s up.
Read more »The wait is over and Denman looks ready to justify Caulfield Guineas odds
October 11th, 2009 by adminToday it won’t matter one bit what I’ve been prattling on about on here – at the end of the day once the tape goes up in the Caulfield Guineas we’re all on our own, a sea of well-dressed chancers grasping our betting slips in the crisp and cutting spring air.
I’m guessing that the last thing going through the mind of jockey Kerrin McEvoy as he stares at the Caulfield track between Denman’s ears is what the Pom de Turf is going to write on Monday morning if the pair of them have an off day.
For what it’s worth, I won’t be happy though. Form, tipping chatter and the bookies are all pointing towards the Peter Snowden-trained star and finding value might be your only problem today.
The last time I checked Betfair were among the few bookies prepared to offer you a little over the 2.70 to 2.80 mark for Denman. If your bowels are telling you not to follow the crowd then my personal recommendation would be Manhattan Rain, who has been knocking around a very tempting 6.50 to 7.00 all week and who is due a performance which truly fulfils his considerable potential.
By all accounts he has also looked truly sharp this week, with Gai Waterhouse declaring “it will be a great race on Saturday with the best colts in Australia coming together but I really believe I have the horse to win my first Caulfield Guineas”, so he’s your horse if you fancy living a little more dangerously, but I’m sticking my neck out with Denman.
Elsewhere today there’s plenty of adequate distraction from the Guineas in the shape of the Toorak Handicap and the Yalumba Stakes, among others. The latter could see a very tight contest between Heart Of Dreams and Whobegotyou, and simply because he did me earlier in the season I’m going with Whobegotyou. I feel like he owes me one.
Other than that my advice is simply this; relax and enjoy the thunder of hooves which means the best of the season’s group 1 racing has begun.
Read more »How to win even when your horse loses in the Caulfield Guineas
October 10th, 2009 by adminForgive me while I become misty-eyed for a few moments on this quiet and portentous Friday afternoon. Tomorrow we finally see what I really consider to be the curtain-raiser of the season in the shape of the Caulfield Guineas, and hopefully a reminder of what it’s all about.
If you’re going to Caulfield tomorrow, and whoever you’re betting on (perhaps no-one, perhaps you just like to get loaded and admire the hats) I advise you to get as close to the action as possible.
That’s part of the beauty of horse racing – the potential proximity of the spectators to the action. At seated sport you can’t just shoulder your way through and grip the barrier at the front if you feel like it, you’re stuck in your bucket, with only a foot-square space to gesticulate in.
So when race seven comes around, please don’t hover at the back, peering over people’s heads and guarding your champagne flute. If you can, shuffle close to the front and get that all-important glimpse of your jockey’s silks ruffling in the wind.
Watch your horse strain every sinew up close; you’ll probably see the jockeys’ teeth gritted as they surge for the post. Unless you’re dead behind the eyes, the hairs on the back of your neck will stand up, and win or lose you’ll feel that hard and fast rush that means you’ve got your money’s worth.
Denman, unsurprisingly, remains the favourite with all and sundry again today. Betfair have him on odds of 2.80 and this may be as good as you’re going to get today. Peering around for value could be the key if you are thinking of holding off until tomorrow.
The weather forecast for Caulfield is looking reasonable and I’ve just been checking an update on the track conditions, last updated 8am this morning. It’s a good 3 and there’s been no overnight rain.
More tomorrow, including my final shout. So You Think is edging around but at the moment I’m a Denman man.
Read more »The Caulfield Guineas for dummies
October 7th, 2009 by adminToday’s post begins the countdown in earnest to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas by guiding the numskulls and novices among us through what will happen on Saturday. I like to call it ‘The Caulfield Guineas for Poms, Plonkers and Pre-Post Punters’. Listen carefully, lest you end up still in the second category come race day.
In latest developments the barrier draw went off on Tuesday and saw Denman and Trusting drew seven and ten respectively, which did nothing to alter their position at the top of the online horse racing markets.
There’s some minor variation out there at this still relatively early stage. Betfair has got Denman on 2.82, with Trusting on 4.70. Over at IASbet the same pair are on odds of 2.70 and 4.80 respectively.
There are two others which are well in the mix – Manhattan Rain, on 6.80 and So You Think on 8.80, both with Betfair, and after this the closest chance is Starspangledbanner on 14.50.
1600m is the distance and the prize pot is a cool $1 million, but the Guineas is about much more than cash, despite what its name might suggest to the layman. It’s an Australian horse racing event which dates back to 1881 and which actually drew its influence from England, namely the 2,000 Guineas Classic, which also means set weights – a rarity in Australian thoroughbred racing. The first-ever winner was Wheatear and it’s been run every year since, with Whobegotyou claiming the glory last year.
So much attention is focussed on Trusting and Denman because they are widely seen as two of the brightest colts in Australian racing, and both are in fine form; Denman will make it seven wins in a row if he wins on Saturday.
Unless you’ve been in a bunker filled with jelly for the last six months, you should also know it’s the first truly major group 1 event of the spring and as such can be a useful guide for those wondering how the runners will do throughout the rest of the campaign.
I’ll be watching the build-up like a hawk and bringing you all the market movements throughout the week, brandy in hand, cash in a tight fist, which may only get tighter as the days tick by. We shall see.
Read more »Pray for rain, racing punters
October 3rd, 2009 by admin‘Won’t blame it on myself. I’ll blame it on the weatherman’. Yes turf fans, late-90s pop is my get-out clause for tomorrow thanks to the unpredictable clouds gathering over Sydney on Friday.
Mr Clangtastic remains my shout in the Metropolitan at Randwick tomorrow but he could be pulled from the race if the heavens fail to open. Trainer Marc Conners has been quoted by AAP saying he’ll wait until the last possible moment before making a decision and if the track is good or better he probably won’t be running, such is his preference for the wet.
This begs the question, if he’s not in it, who is going to come out on top? Mr Clangtastic is currently on 5.50 with Sportsbet, while Speed Gifted is current favourite on 3.60 and Ready To Lift is on 6.00 and is my second shout.
I’m not planning to go mental tomorrow though – as the week has gone on the markets for both the ten-race card at Randwick and fixtures for Flemington have become more open and there’s plenty of bookie mantraps ready to chomp your wallet down to size tomorrow.
If you must have a swing at the Epsom Handicap Rangirangdoo has held firm all week and looks reasonable on 3.00 with Sportsbet.
Time to turn back to the NRL betting markets for Friday now, and naturally plenty of cash is going to be put down tomorrow before Sunday and could alter odds slightly, but I don’t expect the head-to-head odds to change much.
Betfair has Melbourne Storm as the favourites on 1.63 and Parramatta Eels are on 2.56. I’ve already said this week that finals betting gives me the creeps, but don’t be fooled by the fact Parramatta have been on a storming run – the Storm are still the better side from the season over all and can become the team of the decade if they win.
On Sunday I’ll make you feel green at the gills by taking you through some of the great NRL upsets, just to cause uncomfortable confusion, but tipsters everywhere are going for the Storm and I’m joining them.
Tomorrow I’ll be providing you with a Randwick overview before racing gets under way – just remember to watch the skies. Turf’s up.
Read more »St Kilda a tempting prospect in the AFL betting markets
September 26th, 2009 by adminSaturday has some intriguing horse racing but much of the nation’s attention will inevitably be focused on the AFL grand final. If you’re looking for a short distraction from the track before the spring really gets hectic, where better to look than the MCG?
To recap, Geelong are facing St Kilda in a winner-takes-all battle which has already seen some interesting betting patterns. Despite the fact St Kilda were the form team throughout the regular season, Geelong opened up the online markets by instantly grasping the favourites tag.
As we speak they are still on 1.65 with Betfair compared to 2.48 for St Kilda. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy are numerous. St Kilda did have a wee bit of a wobble towards the end of the conventional season, whereas Geelong were mighty impressive in their last preliminary final against Collingwood. Many therefore feel the wind is with the Cats.
If you’re going to force me to have an opinion, I’d say otherwise. Anything can happen in the final and St Kilda have been better overall throughout the season. By all accounts the weather is going to be rotten as well tomorrow, which may better suit St Kilda’s tough pressing approach. Like I said, it’s a final, so anything can happen, but I’d say St Kilda is the wiser move.
Back to the turf and we have the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick, featuring current Caulfield guineas favourite Denman. He’s only got four rivals at present in the 1400m run, although one of them is More Than Great. As such he’s on 1.45 with IASbet – which is actually looking pretty reasonable – if you can find 1.50-odd anywhere, I’d go with that, if not, take the 1.45. I actually mentioned this race earlier in the week and told you to slap something on Denman when he was up on 1.60 in some places. Pay attention.
There’s also the group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick, which is much harder to call. Racing To Win is the current favourite on 1.90 with Centrebet, but Onemorenomore is looking relatively reasonable on 4.75 and Black Piranha is 6.50. Racing To Win is going to be very hard to beat, but I don’t fancy those odds. A wee wedge on Black Piranha just for fun gets my shout.
Enjoy the (wet) weekend. Turf’s up people.
Read more »Manikato Stakes offers plenty of betting mysteries
September 25th, 2009 by adminThere’s a creeping sense of “they know something I don’t” this Thursday. Sometimes other horse racing punters still put me in a strop. Allow me to elaborate.
Tomorrow night it’s the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, as mentioned previously in the week. It’s a group 1 race with a strong field, not least Mic Mac, Memsie Stakes winner and all-round hot shot.
It’s also been wet at the track this week and as of Thursday it’s rated as a Dead 5. By all accounts it’s still chucking it down too. Mic Mac has a good record on such a surface, winning the Memsie on turf rated Dead.
However, it’s not him who is leading the online gambling markets – it’s Nicconi, currently on 4.40 with Mic Mac on 4.60 with IASbet.
I suppose you could point to the fact that Mic Mac’s last run was a 1600m – the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, where he was second. However, he’s never had a great problem with the 1200m – and was first in the 1200m Aurie’s Star Handicap in August on-yes, you guessed it, a dead track.
What of Nicconi? Granted this horse last won on a short 1000m on September 12 but the record book shows he’s never actually won at 1200m, so why has he edged in front? I have visions of men in dark coats around the back of stables whispering so quietly that not even Nicconi’s pointy ears can hear them.
Granted, it is a pretty open field, but if you feel Nicconi looks the better shout over Mic Mac, please spill the beans and let me know why. And don’t say you can feel it in your waters, that doesn’t wash with my cold British heart.
Besides that, I’m still cautiously going for Mic Mac on this one. But I’d keep it low. A Friday fling, if you will, before the weekend. After all about 500 stone of muscle is colliding in the AFL grand final on Saturday, and hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, will also be taking a bashing as the MCG heaves with 100,000 fans.
Meanwhile I’ll keep my eye on Mic Mac and hope to learn something on Friday night. Turf’s up.
Read more »Trusting could repay your faith if you are fast enough
September 19th, 2009 by adminTomorrow will be very much ‘crunch time’ for a number of horses and also a nail-biter for plenty of horse racing punters, given the state of some of the odds about today, but fear not. The Pom de Turf is here to hold your hand and offer nervous words of encouragement.
Think of me as your mum telling you that injection isn’t going to hurt one bit – in reality it may sting but my words should at least stop you worrying until it’s time to roll up your sleeve/get your wallet out.
First I’m going to the Gunieas Prelude at Caulfield. The Guineas itself isn’t until October 10 but the distance of the Prelude is only 200m short of it’s big brother so it’s a reliable guide.
All eyes will be on star colts Trusting and Manhattan Rain. Unless you’ve had your head buried in concrete for the last 12 months, you should have heard of Manhattan Rain. He’s one of the most valuable horses in the Southern Hemisphere and is trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has been putting him up there with the best she’s ever seen, and she knows what she’s talking about.
Trusting already has the group 2 Warwick Stakes in the locker this season and has been looking mighty impressive. Now here’s the catch. As of Friday both horses were joint favourites with Centrebet on 4.25. Don’t ask me to call that one – but salvation is at hand – IASbet has Trusting edged ahead in the betting to 3.80 so that 4.25 for Trusting with Centrebet is my shout.
So to the group 1 1800m Underwood Stakes, also at Caulfield tomorrow, where we have Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor, plus Heart of Dreams in the running. Typhoon Tracy has drawn a pants barrier 16, and with Whobegotyou looking awesome in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday, it’s hard to look past him for the win. His odds are predictably skinny though, but 2.86 with Betfair doesn’t look so bad, so I’d go with that.
It’d be rude not to mention Saturday’s AFL tie – Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG in the last hurdle before the AFL grand final. Collingwood have much the younger team and have plenty out injured, while Geelong overturned them earlier in the season and are looking confident. Therefore Geelong are the smart move with Betfair, but 1.42 is the best they can manage – perhaps worth waiting until after the game to get some decent early final odds.
Turf’s up. Enjoy the weekend.
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