Posts Tagged ‘tipping’
Crime Scene continues my impressive placings form
November 4th, 2009 by adminAs Crime Scene surged out ahead of the pack on Tuesday I could almost feel the gods whispering on my shoulder.
The 2009 Melbourne Cup, for all the pre-race claims of a relatively weak field, stirred the hearts of even the most hardened punters as Bart Cummings’ bid for a lucky 13th Cup was shot down in flames.
For about 50 metres it looked like British-based Crime Scene would steal the show. A pom. A tea-slurper. A limey. One of my very own.
I knew better though – over the course of the season I’ve been patchy at best when it comes to picking the winners but I’m frankly proud of my record when it comes to the placings.
For Crime Scene to win, the natural order would have had to be broken. My placings shouts are always coming second – when I tipped Crime Scene for a top three finish on Monday at 12.50 a friend of mine in Sydney chuckled and announced his money was on Alcopop. Clearly he doesn’t read this blog.
Manhattan Rain in the Cox Plate and Roman Emperor in the Caulfield Cup have so far showed there is method to my placings madness, which was why I was the least surprised of all when Crime Scene came storming through, got caught by Shocking, and settled into second. It was written in the wind. To complete the usual form, my winner tips of Viewed and Roman Emperor were nowhere to be seen.
There isn’t much which can knock me off my flawed high horse now, but no doubt the Crown Oaks and Emirates Stakes will do their best.
Betting for Thursday’s Crown Oaks at Flemington is being dominated by Bart Cummings again. His filly Faint Perfume is the favourite on the slightly ludicrous price of 1.65 with many bookmakers. Some may feel the big man’s luck is out after his trio of horses failed to win the cup on Tuesday, but everything here suggests only a massive shock can stand in the way of Faint Perfume. Value will be the problem and a clutch of horses sub-16.00 means even placings prices are not the best for those in with a shout.
Looking ahead to the finale of the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, and Bart is there again with Cox Plate winner So You Think likely to feature – most online horse racing markets aren’t open yet so I’ll come back to this on Friday.
Until then, enjoy the Crown Oaks and spend those Melbourne Cup winnings wisely. If you came away with a loss, don’t worry, the carnival is nearly over.
Read more »Melbourne Cup musings and a final Derby tipping rundown
October 30th, 2009 by adminBarely four days are left before we reach the season’s climax, and an intriguing betting market seems to suggest the 2009 Melbourne Cup will be well worth the wait.
One of the biggest stories of the last couple of days has been the condition of Efficient, the 2007 winner who had previously been a joint favourite with Alcopop. He’s now out at 10.00-plus with Betfair after it was revealed the stable is watching an old injury to his off foreleg. This might not tell the whole story – the problem has apparently been knocking about for over a year now and didn’t stop him winning the Turnbull Stakes in his last start. Therefore the drift may actually be a chance to grab a good price on a previous favourite – I’d be surprised if he didn’t run, but at the same time I’d take the drifting price without sticking my house on it.
That’s just one of a number to look out for – there’s a clutch of runners around the 20.00 mark at Betfair who I like the look of – especially Kirklees at 27.00 who has reportedly been looking very good indeed in trackwork this week.
More of course on Tuesday morning. I’ll be tracking Efficient like a hawk and making some placings shouts.
For now its back to Victoria Derby Day, where among others there is the distraction of the Myer Classic. Typhoon Tracy is the current favourite and has been all week – a small one on her might be worth it, while a placings shot on Lady Lynette looks ok, if you can find a reasonable price.
So to the main event itself, where IASbet is still listing Shamoline Warriror as the favourite at 3.20. However, Onemorenomore is now at 9.00 and falling and could be worth a go now before he possibly closes up further near the race.
Last and by no mean least, the 2500m $1.5 million group 1 run has a Pom De Turf ‘comedy dollar’ candidate. Prinsom is on a whopping 251.00 with the same bookmaker. I’ve studied his recent results carefully, and, yep, he hasn’t got a hope in hell, but it’s Derby day and anything can happen. Slightly strangely IASbet have him at a comparatively skinny 15.91 to make the placings. If I could explain that, I’d be a bookie, not a blogger. Turf’s Up.
Read more »Manhattan Rain causes a storm but who’d bet against Bart?
October 26th, 2009 by adminIt was another mixture of satisfaction and frustration on Saturday as I came good with my shout for the placings but fell down when it came to the winner. Whobegotyou failed to live up to his clear favourite tag for the Cox Plate and was well out of the placings, as So You Think, who almost no-one had talked about, led from the off to win.
But finally, at last, Manhattan Rain showed us what he’s made of and came in second. He was on 6.00 for each way with Centrebet when I recommended him earlier in the week and that almost wiped out the disappointment of ‘Whobe’, who was on a rather skinny 3.00 and even below around race time.
I’m rapidly developing a record of failing to pick out a winner but always pulling out a placer, having repeated the feat in the Caulfield Cup with Kirklees also nowhere to be seen but Roman Emperor making good my each-way shout.
Saturday’s result now also throws up an interesting problem for punters – Bart Cummings is fast becoming a ‘don’t bet against’ trainer, having been behind So You Think and Caulfield Cup winner Viewed. Que much talk of knighthoods, multiple ‘living legends’ and several ‘geniuses’. To many punters, including me, the man is frankly a menace, but credit to him.
He’s also got six horses who could appear in the Melbourne Cup, prompting Sportingbet to offer up a tempting morsel. ‘Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup?’ the bookmaker asks, and they are offering 4.50 on the winner next Tuesday being another Bart beauty. Should you feel Flemington’s gala feature is just a step too far even for him, Sportingbet will give you 1.20.
Three of his six are assured of a start – Viewed, Roman Emperor and Allez Wonder and Sportingbet has Viewed at 7.00 and Roman Emperor at 12.00 for the Melbourne Cup, while Allez Wonder is at 31.00. Current joint favourites with the same bookmaker are Efficient and Alcopop on 6.00.
We all now live in fear of being Barted into oblivion if we dare not to back one of his charges. At least there’s the distraction of the Victoria Derby on Saturday before we have to face the legend and the main event.
Read more »Whobe is home from home today
October 24th, 2009 by adminUnlike plenty of other runners in today’s Cox Plate, favourite Whobegotyou has only been hanging about getting familiar with Moonee Valley for a day or two.
While other trainers were making sure their runners were given plenty of opportunity to pound the circuit and familiarise themselves with the turf that will make and break fortunes today, Whobegotyou arrived late. On Thursday he was still at Flemington, where trainer Mark Kavanagh kept him in his regular routine.
Carelessness on the part of Kavanagh? Overconfidence? Not at all. ‘Whobe’ does not need the practice at Moonee Valley. Four times he has run here, four times he has won. This place is his second home.
His jockey is Damien Oliver, who told The Age the conditions seem to do him a favour.
“He’s one of those horses that seem really comfortable here,” Oliver has said. “The track does seem to have a bit more give than most tracks, and that’s probably receptive to him.”
So in his natural environment he will make hay and leave all in his wake. A bit like me and a free buffet.
But Oliver did have a warning for those punters who are hoping for a better day than the open and carnivorous field of the Caulfield Cup last week – watch out for El Segundo, he said, who also likes the Moonee Valley wind in his hair. The Colin Little-trained veteran has also won four times here – including the 2007 Cox Plate.
Value will be your problem today no doubt – although some people drifted away from Whobe after his barrier 10 draw, there will plenty of cash heading his way on race day and anything above 3.00 could be your best bet. Betfair has had him around 3.20 in recent days.
Shop around for those placings too – as of Friday only Manhattan Rain looked particularly sensible on 6.00 each way with some bookies, but a measly 4.00-odd is the best you may get for some of the better runners with most bookmakers. Heart Of Dreams has been a reasonably-priced second favourite all week and that shouldn’t change today, go with him if you’re looking to counterbalance a wedge on Whobe. I’m off to my own comfort of the buffet. Drinks are on me if the favourite wins.
Read more »Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine
October 23rd, 2009 by adminA brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.
William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.
Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.
Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.
Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.
Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.
A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.
Read more »Caulfield Cup ‘safeties’ take me on to Geelong and Moonee Valley
October 21st, 2009 by adminI’m heading into the Geelong Cup and the Cox Plate on a bit of a high, a small one, but a morale hump nonetheless.
Although there was no golden egg of a win for Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday, my shout Shamoline Warrior easily clinched the Norman Robinson Stakes having been priced at 3.80 favourite with IASbet.
Then the main event got under way. Although a fair bit of cash must’ve gone down the plug when Viewed bombed up the inside, I had the safety net of Roman Emperor, who I’d recommended as a placings shot at around 6.00 with many bookmakers. He ran a great race to finish as runner-up and on the final turn looked well in it and could even have pinched the whole thing were it not for a final kick from Viewed, who was on 13.00-odd with many bookmakers before the race.
As such I feel my backside has emerged from Caulfield Cup day pretty much intact after a bit of a tanning in certain events over the last couple of weeks.
Onwards to Wednesday’s Geelong Cup when stacks of horses need to win to get a decent boost up the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup.
Luca Cumani-trained Basaltico was quickly installed as the favourite for this one and the English galloper has shrunk to 6.50 with IASbet having hovered at 7.00 before the weekend. Also in the running is Godolphin stable horse Crime Scene.
For me at the moment this weekend’s main Moonee Valley event of the Cox Plate has one clear contender – current favourite Whobegotyou. He got me once earlier in the season when I advised against him in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes but paid me back with a victory in the Yalumba Stakes. He is the one to beat on Saturday and is on 2.95 with Centrebet, while Heart Of Dreams, likely to be his main challenger, is around 6.00. ‘Whobe’ hardly shrank after he drew barrier 10 for the race, so could dip further.
My mojo is back and so is my patchy confidence. Turf’s up.
Read more »A lazy Sunday look ahead to Geelong and the Cox Plate
October 19th, 2009 by adminOn Sunday I like to calm down a bit – ease off the gin, put the feet up and browse through the racing news online to get prepared for the week ahead.
Before group 1 fever returns on Saturday we have one major midweek distraction – the group 3 2400m Geelong Cup. Wednesday’s edition is the 122nd instalment of the race and features one or two international interests, notably Basaltico, trained in England by Luca Cumani, and Godolphin stable horse Crime Scene. Also in the mix for this one is Six O’Clock News, to be ridden by Noel Harris, among others.
Then of course we have the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley on Saturday where there’s $3 million up for grabs over the 2040m. Whobegotyou has been the early contender in the betting markets for this one and is a favourite of mine, but I’ll have my ear to the ground all week. If developments are half as varied as they were for the Caulfield Cup then I’ll have a lot of work on my hands keeping up with the odds. Must be nice to have someone doing the legwork for you? A bit like a jockey really. Just kidding jockeys.
Joking apart, we have some rugby league to bet on again come Friday when the Four Nations kicks off. Despite the fact there are only four sides involved, this involves one of the wildest outsiders I think I’ve seen, ever.
France, whose appearance expands the event from the tri nations, are on anything from about 151.00 to about 70.00. That must be worth what I call a ‘comedy dollar’. Australia are clear favourites at 1.22 with Centrebet.
After Australia either England or New Zealand are unlikely second-favourites, depending on where you look – Centrebet has them at 7.00 and 6.50 respectively. Even my patriotic streak of Pom isn’t enough to have me gobbling up those odds, thank you very much. My lads kick off against France at Headingley on Friday, while Australia take on New Zealand on Saturday. I can feel another Ashes-themed upset in the air. Feeling lucky?
Read more »Looking on the bright side for the Caulfield Cup
October 17th, 2009 by adminSunshine and a few clouds are likely to greet the Caulfield Cup faithful on Saturday, according to the latest weather forecast, but the ongoing uncertainty in the markets looks likely to cause a dreary end to the day for a fair few punters.
There are some chinks of light through what is the most clouded market of the spring so far. Both Cima De Trimphe and Kirklees have continued to emerge and the latter is the 9.00 joint favourite with Betfair. Cima De Triomphe is at 9.20 and Predatory Pricer is on 9.00. These three, followed closely by Daffodil at 9.60, have emerged from the fog over the last 48 hours.
I’m still sticking with Kirklees purely because of his recent form over this distance, but it doesn’t take a genius to know an awful lot can happen tomorrow.
Where there is an open field, there is also value mixed in with the uncertainty, if history has taught us anything. A look at the placings odds shows up some tempting morsels which might be worth a look. Roman Emperor, ridden by Hugh Bowman, is around 6.00 for this and Red Ruler is on 7.00 and both could be worth a small investment. If you can find reasonable value for Kirklees each way, which admittedly is unlikely, try that too.
You’d be mad not to have a little browse elsewhere as well. There are plenty of sub-plots which could potentially save your bacon and your blushes if you play your cards right. Earlier on the card before the main event is the group 3 2000m Norman Robinson Stakes where a number of horses need a result in order to kick on for the season. Shamoline Warrior, a serious contender for the Victoria Derby, is a reasonably-priced favourite with IASbet at 3.80, while Tribunal may also be worth a small look at 4.60.
It’s been a weird week, what with the Caulfield Cup barrier draw and earlier pull-outs. But there’s nothing left to do other than sit back and enjoy the ride, turf lovers.
Read more »Irish Lights and Melito shine through the pre-cup betting fog
October 15th, 2009 by adminIrish lights are shining today after the favourite lived up to her billing and clinched the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield earlier. I’m fairly pleased as well because Melito came second and ran a good race after I advised her for a placings bet if you could scrape decent value from somewhere.
Melito looked good towards the end too, ending up only a long neck behind and tantalising me with the belief that I might actually be able to successfully tip the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.
I puffed up my chest and settled into a comfort zone again before I properly examined the barrier draw for Saturday and realised everything had gone to pot again.
A number of the pre-draw favourites have drawn poorly, having only recently shuffled themselves to the top of the pecking order after it was revealed Speed Gifted will not be running on Saturday.
Depending on where you’ve been looking over the last four days you might have seen Speed Gifted, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Kirklees as the favourite for the $2.5 race. As we speak the bookies still can’t reach a consensus after Predatory Pricer drew barrier 16.
IASbet has Daffodil as the favourite on odds of 8.00 after a barrier four draw, with Kirklees, Cima De Triomphe and Predatory Pricer all tied on 8.50. I think that’s what’s known as ‘open’.
Over at Centrebet the current favourite is Kirklees on 7.50, while Daffodil is out on 11.00 here. Predatory Pricer is at 8.50, and just to rub salt into the wound there’s the ominous duo of Vigor and Allez Wonder, both on 10.00.
Clear as mud then. There are a couple of days left for this madness to settle but it’s fair to say it’s a mighty tough call.
I’ve heard one or two whispers online for Cima De Triomphe, but at this stage everyone is left looking at each other wondering what the hell just happened. Tomorrow and Friday I’ll be delving into the stats book in search of answers. Until then.
Read more »Pull-outs blow open the Caulfield Cup betting markets
October 14th, 2009 by adminWhen galloper Predatory Pricer got up off his considerable backside this morning and blinked open his big brown eyes, he was at best third favourite in the betting markets for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
By the time he’d relieved himself, been led out the stable and had a little run out, he was heading for the top of the betting after Speed Gifted was dropped out of the 2400m race to instead head off to the Cox Plate in the direction of the Melbourne Cup.
Punters keen on the half brother of Takeover Target will be hoping the bookmakers’ crown does not lie too heavy. He seemed to stubbornly wheel away in the wrong direction at one point this morning and didn’t look terribly chuffed to be up and out on the grass, but then again neither would I at that time of day. Jockey Steven King told the Herald Sun: “His form’s been outstanding even though he’s doing a lot wrong”. Outstanding and imperfect, much like me.
You can currently get 7.60 for him at Betfair, ahead of Vigor on 8.00, with the two joint favourites in other markets. Next in line is Cima De Triomphe at 9.00 and Daffodil completes the top pack at 13.00.
Ergo, Saturday is becoming a bit of a bear trap, but Vigor and Predatory Pricer do at least look in the right place at the top of the tree. More on his throughout the week.
Back to tomorrow’s diversion of the Thousand Guineas now. Irish Lights is still way out in front at 2.55 but Melito, trained by Gerald Ryan, is perhaps a bit on the high side at 10.00 in some markets earlier this week, now at 8.00 with Centrebet.
Betfair has her at a better 9.00 though, and she attracted a spike in punters cash with the bookmaker when easing up to 10.00 earlier in the week. She looks like more fun than a punt on Irish Lights if you are after something a bit more sexy, but if you’d rather play it safe with Melito go with a placings if you can find decent value.
Tomorrow’s race can act as a wind test for Saturday. Hopefully it’s blowing in my favour for what could be a gripping Caulfield Cup. Turf’s up.
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